Major Hurricane Helene

[buckeyefan1]

Helene is hauling north at 30mph, making a beeline here and if that alarm goes off one more time... 

[buckeyefan1]

gsp 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
***A HISTORIC RAINFALL EVENT IS UNDERWAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY WITH WIDESPREAD/LOCALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH
FLOODING EXPECTED***

As of 315 am: Moderate to heavy rain continues across the forecast
area early this morning. Rainfall rates associated with the ongoing
activity are relatively tame...generally .25-.5" per hour (albeit
locally heavier). Nevertheless, flash flooding continues to steadily
worsen...especially across portions of the NC Blue Ridge. The center
of Hurricane Helene is currently near Vidalia, GA...and is already
accelerating (current speed ~40 mph) toward the north.   Tropical
rainbands...possibly producing rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour...
will begin to rotate across the CWA during the 08-12Z time frame.
This is when the flash flood situation...which is already severe in
some areas...will become potentially catastrophic... especially in
locations that received the brunt of the predecessor event over the
past 36 hours (i.e., counties encompassing the Blue Ridge
escarpment...note that this also includes the city of Asheville and
vicinity). It`s very possible that ongoing warnings will be upgraded
to EMERGENCY designation in these areas. Reservoirs along the
Catawba River chain are also running high and these could be
breached as enuf water may not be able to be released beforehand.
Additional rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches are expected across all
but the southern and eastern fringe of the CWA (where 1.5-3" are
expected). This additional rainfall will result in...at the very
least..."run-of-the-mill" flash flooding across much of the
remainder of the CWA.

Winds remain a secondary concern...but nonetheless quite concerning,
as Helene made landfall as a Cat 4 last evening, and the fast-moving
nature of the cyclone isn`t giving it a lot of time to weaken as the
expanding wind field advances toward the forecast area. Gusts of 35
to 45 kts are being reported as far north as Augusta...about 90
miles north of the cyclone center...and confidence is increasing
that damaging winds (gusts 55-65 mph) are going to be realized
across at least the western part of our area, especially as the
tropical bands around the center begin pushing in around daybreak.
Gusts across the higher elevations could reach 80 mph. The
combination of these wind gusts with saturated soil is likely to
result in widespread power outages across the western half of the
area.

Helene will continue to advance quickly W=>NW of the forecast area
late this morning into the afternoon, with quickly improving weather
conditions as the column dries quickly. However, flooding on some
larger tributaries will linger into at least Saturday, while main
stem river flooding will linger into early next week.

[GaWx]

From NHC at 4AM:
A University of Georgia weather station in Vidalia, Georgia 
recently reported a wind gust of 77 mph (124 km/h). An ASOS station 
at The Savannah International Airport in Georgia recently reported 
a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) with a gust to 76 mph      
(122 km/h).

[Met1985]

It's just dumping out there currently.  This is not a good situation we are in. A lot of rivers are out of there banks already.  

[NorthHillsWx]

Looks like the main event is underway for the mountain and upstate areas. Will only go downhill the next few hours. Good luck to everyone in those areas and be safe 

[NEGa]

I keep getting phone alarms too lol. They have all been flood emergency related. Looks like the track is waaaay east. Some gusty winds but nothing like I had expected. There are very few spots of power outages around here. 

[buckeyefan1]

Gusting close to 40 at the moment and I'm hearing noises that aren't of the soothing kind outside 

[wncsnow]

Power is out here in Marion. At my sister's place that is far from water but elevated. Wind is getting frisky here already.. Catawba closing in on 15 feet. Record from Frances is 17.55. I think that record will shatter later. 

Question is will it get up to 20 feet. My house should be fine up to 20 feet. 

[Met1985]

There's a roar with this wind driven rain now... Very eerie. 

[NorthHillsWx]

This thing is WAY east of last nights forecast track

Augusta getting hurricane force gusts now

[buckeyefan1]

That was a noticeably higher gust just now. Had to be close to 50mph 

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This thing is WAY east of last nights forecast track

Augusta getting hurricane force gusts now

Yep. I knew a storm this size wouldn't be pulled so easily by the ULL. 

[strongwxnc]

Highest gust so far at 23.9. Right at 7.83" for this event. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Greenville Spartanburg and Clemson all gusting over 40 now

[WNC_Fort]

Will be interesting to read the lessons learned from the forecasting of Helene's track. She's been a  good bit east of what the NWS/NHC had been putting out.

Apartment in Asheville (Sweeten Creek) is without power. Old Fort is too.  

[downeastnc]

Run this loop is about to be lights out for most of western and central SC....

 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Carolinas-13-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data

[Disc]

Already getting gusts in Ashe and Watauga Counties in the 50mph range at higher peaks.

[Met1985]

Things are getting narly know in a hurry.  Big gusts coming through now. There are all kinds of downed power lines through Haywood. 

[strongwxnc]

3 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Run this loop is about to be lights out for most of western and central SC....

 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Carolinas-13-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data

Good lord this is a large system! 

 

Gusting to 25 here for now. 

 

Reports that the Lake lure damn is at 26'. 

[downeastnc]

1 minute ago, strongwxnc said:

Good lord this is a large system! 

 

Gusting to 25 here for now. 

Its also not really moving N or NNW yet either, and every hr it doesnt it gets 30 miles further into areas that were not expecting what they are about to get...if it does not really start to get captured soon it could get really close to Charlotte in 4-5 hrs....

[NorthHillsWx]

Beaufort SC gusting to 68 kts! Charleston area with several 50+ kt gusts around 

[Met1985]

Several communities here in Haywood are being ordered to evacuate because there is flash flooding going on currently and we've just started to get info the bad stuff.

[WNC_Fort]

Yea, I haven't seen the North/Northwest turn in the circulation yet. Might even pass east of Asheville?

[strongwxnc]

23 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

Yea, I haven't seen the North/Northwest turn in the circulation yet. Might even pass east of Asheville?

The way the loop that was linked above is, it sure looks likely. just heading nne for now 

[buckeyefan1]

I'm hearing trees falling    Have I said lately that I'm not fond of these sounds when it's dark outside    

[Moonhowl]

Just lost power.  Wind cranking up.

[NorthHillsWx]

Duke outages are skyrocketing. Up over 100k in last hour. Currently 176k and that’s likely to double 

[WNC_Fort]

Just got off the phone with a friend in Biltmore Village. Said the wind has really intensified and that he's heard several loud "booms"

[calculus1]

Helene is WAY east of NHC forecast track. The global models were right. Is she going to turn NW?


.

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, calculus1 said:

Helene is WAY east of NHC forecast track. The global models were right. Is she going to turn NW?


.

Looks like she is turning ever so slightly now but yeah way off track.