buckeyefan1 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Helene is hauling north at 30mph, making a beeline here and if that alarm goes off one more time... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 gsp .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ***A HISTORIC RAINFALL EVENT IS UNDERWAY FOR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY WITH WIDESPREAD/LOCALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED*** As of 315 am: Moderate to heavy rain continues across the forecast area early this morning. Rainfall rates associated with the ongoing activity are relatively tame...generally .25-.5" per hour (albeit locally heavier). Nevertheless, flash flooding continues to steadily worsen...especially across portions of the NC Blue Ridge. The center of Hurricane Helene is currently near Vidalia, GA...and is already accelerating (current speed ~40 mph) toward the north. Tropical rainbands...possibly producing rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour... will begin to rotate across the CWA during the 08-12Z time frame. This is when the flash flood situation...which is already severe in some areas...will become potentially catastrophic... especially in locations that received the brunt of the predecessor event over the past 36 hours (i.e., counties encompassing the Blue Ridge escarpment...note that this also includes the city of Asheville and vicinity). It`s very possible that ongoing warnings will be upgraded to EMERGENCY designation in these areas. Reservoirs along the Catawba River chain are also running high and these could be breached as enuf water may not be able to be released beforehand. Additional rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches are expected across all but the southern and eastern fringe of the CWA (where 1.5-3" are expected). This additional rainfall will result in...at the very least..."run-of-the-mill" flash flooding across much of the remainder of the CWA. Winds remain a secondary concern...but nonetheless quite concerning, as Helene made landfall as a Cat 4 last evening, and the fast-moving nature of the cyclone isn`t giving it a lot of time to weaken as the expanding wind field advances toward the forecast area. Gusts of 35 to 45 kts are being reported as far north as Augusta...about 90 miles north of the cyclone center...and confidence is increasing that damaging winds (gusts 55-65 mph) are going to be realized across at least the western part of our area, especially as the tropical bands around the center begin pushing in around daybreak. Gusts across the higher elevations could reach 80 mph. The combination of these wind gusts with saturated soil is likely to result in widespread power outages across the western half of the area. Helene will continue to advance quickly W=>NW of the forecast area late this morning into the afternoon, with quickly improving weather conditions as the column dries quickly. However, flooding on some larger tributaries will linger into at least Saturday, while main stem river flooding will linger into early next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 From NHC at 4AM: A University of Georgia weather station in Vidalia, Georgia recently reported a wind gust of 77 mph (124 km/h). An ASOS station at The Savannah International Airport in Georgia recently reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) with a gust to 76 mph (122 km/h). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 It's just dumping out there currently. This is not a good situation we are in. A lot of rivers are out of there banks already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Looks like the main event is underway for the mountain and upstate areas. Will only go downhill the next few hours. Good luck to everyone in those areas and be safe 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 I keep getting phone alarms too lol. They have all been flood emergency related. Looks like the track is waaaay east. Some gusty winds but nothing like I had expected. There are very few spots of power outages around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Gusting close to 40 at the moment and I'm hearing noises that aren't of the soothing kind outside 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Power is out here in Marion. At my sister's place that is far from water but elevated. Wind is getting frisky here already.. Catawba closing in on 15 feet. Record from Frances is 17.55. I think that record will shatter later. Question is will it get up to 20 feet. My house should be fine up to 20 feet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 There's a roar with this wind driven rain now... Very eerie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 This thing is WAY east of last nights forecast track Augusta getting hurricane force gusts now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 That was a noticeably higher gust just now. Had to be close to 50mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: This thing is WAY east of last nights forecast track Augusta getting hurricane force gusts now Yep. I knew a storm this size wouldn't be pulled so easily by the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Highest gust so far at 23.9. Right at 7.83" for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Greenville Spartanburg and Clemson all gusting over 40 now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Will be interesting to read the lessons learned from the forecasting of Helene's track. She's been a good bit east of what the NWS/NHC had been putting out. Apartment in Asheville (Sweeten Creek) is without power. Old Fort is too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Run this loop is about to be lights out for most of western and central SC.... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Carolinas-13-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Already getting gusts in Ashe and Watauga Counties in the 50mph range at higher peaks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Things are getting narly know in a hurry. Big gusts coming through now. There are all kinds of downed power lines through Haywood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 3 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Run this loop is about to be lights out for most of western and central SC.... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Carolinas-13-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data Good lord this is a large system! Gusting to 25 here for now. Reports that the Lake lure damn is at 26'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 1 minute ago, strongwxnc said: Good lord this is a large system! Gusting to 25 here for now. Its also not really moving N or NNW yet either, and every hr it doesnt it gets 30 miles further into areas that were not expecting what they are about to get...if it does not really start to get captured soon it could get really close to Charlotte in 4-5 hrs.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Beaufort SC gusting to 68 kts! Charleston area with several 50+ kt gusts around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Several communities here in Haywood are being ordered to evacuate because there is flash flooding going on currently and we've just started to get info the bad stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Yea, I haven't seen the North/Northwest turn in the circulation yet. Might even pass east of Asheville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 23 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said: Yea, I haven't seen the North/Northwest turn in the circulation yet. Might even pass east of Asheville? The way the loop that was linked above is, it sure looks likely. just heading nne for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 I'm hearing trees falling Have I said lately that I'm not fond of these sounds when it's dark outside 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Just lost power. Wind cranking up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Duke outages are skyrocketing. Up over 100k in last hour. Currently 176k and that’s likely to double Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Just got off the phone with a friend in Biltmore Village. Said the wind has really intensified and that he's heard several loud "booms" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Helene is WAY east of NHC forecast track. The global models were right. Is she going to turn NW?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 1 minute ago, calculus1 said: Helene is WAY east of NHC forecast track. The global models were right. Is she going to turn NW? . Looks like she is turning ever so slightly now but yeah way off track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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