Major Hurricane Helene

[Sw NC weather]

2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Almost 4 here and pouring 

Definitely coming down hard again I’m about to cross 3 as I type. What part of the county are you in? I’m in Cowee.

[Met1985]

Anybody else getting some gusty winds tonight?

[wncsnow]

9 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Anybody else getting some gusty winds tonight?

In these downpours yes. We have picked up 1.06 in the last 45 minutes. 

[mercurydime]

Over 4 inches for the event so far 3.21 today, ands that's almost doubled from 90 minutes ago...not any Forrest Gump sideways rain yet, but close during some gusts.  

[wncsnow]

Just now, mercurydime said:

Over 4 inches for the event so far 3.21 today, ands that's almost doubled from 90 minutes ago...not any Forrest Gump sideways rain yet, but close during some gusts.  

I figured you would post during this. Good to see you back. I'm only at 2.16 today being a little further east. I bet some places near Old Fort have gotten over 4 to 5 inches already. 

[calculus1]

That line of precursor rain has not advanced far east at all. We got an inch of rain overnight, but it hasn’t really rained at all today. Maybe it will pick up overnight, but I’m not too anxious for those high totals anyway.

[HWY316wx]

Had to get off the main page.  Posters just posting negative stuff because it's not coming to their backyard.

That said, I have been seeing reports of power outages already in Georgia.  Mainly where the rain has been falling heavily already.  Anyone else?

[mercurydime]

It's good to be back.  I've missed the camaraderie here.  Hard to beat the weather insight.  I'll be around more over the next several months.  

It'll be interesting to see what the wind field is like over the next 48 hours.  

[calculus1]

I have family in Old Fort that live across the street from the Catawba River. I also have family in Black Mountain, but not near any streams or rivers. Really worried about this one for both of them. I think they both see upwards of a foot of rainfall out of this. The point-and-click NWS forecasts are pretty insane for both locations. I’ve never seen the language for rain totals that it is using for Black Mountain tomorrow night: “New precipitation amounts in excess of 4 inches possible.” The other time frames are also huge. Old Fort isn’t much different.

I keep sending my family updates, as I have them, since I am much more into following weather events than any of them. I appreciate all the reports and posting that ya’ll provide on here.

[Shack]

Firsts for everything, I guess.  Spit out my Mountain Dew driving home this afternoon around 5:00 when I heard this:

"The National Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for Bibb County," (Macon, GA)

NHC still has track centered to the west of MCN by 50 miles, but looking at the HAFS-B, it takes the eye pretty much directly over us here in Macon.

Guess I'll need to take my bloomers off the clothesline.

[BooneWX]

5 minutes ago, Shack said:

Firsts for everything, I guess.  Spit out my Mountain Dew driving home this afternoon around 5:00 when I heard this:

"The National Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for Bibb County," (Macon, GA)

NHC still has track centered to the west of MCN by 50 miles, but looking at the HAFS-B, it takes the eye pretty much directly over us here in Macon.

Guess I'll need to take my bloomers off the clothesline.

I’m afraid this is going to be a generational wind event for you guys and all of Georgia. Brad Panovich said it well today: “this is Georgia’s Hugo.”

[HWY316wx]

3 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I’m afraid this is going to be a generational wind event for you guys and all of Georgia. Brad Panovich said it well today: “this is Georgia’s Hugo.”

Wow.  Brad said that????

[BooneWX]

7 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

Wow.  Brad said that????

Edit: he said Atlanta but obviously that includes everyone south

[BooneWX]

Also Blowing Rock was hit by a tornado this evening. I ironically almost zero metered it out of pure chance driving back from a Boone meeting. Shoutout to @Tyler Penlandfor the coverage he’s getting on the socials rn!

[JoshM]

0z NAM decent jog east with some bands

 

[JoshM]

High res nam has some gusts to 90 in asheville and 70 in gastonia. even some sustained TS force winds west of charlotte

[mercurydime]

(Possible) Tornado reported in Shingle Hollow (Rutherford Co.) late this afternoon as well. 

[HWY316wx]

Maybe someone on here can answer this without ripping me a new butt hole.  But, I have looked at all the operation models.  GFS, EURO, NAM, HRRR, HWRF... you name it.  They for the most part have the LPS coming on shore in the Big Bend area and then moving on a line to about Tifton, GA and then depending on the model, the next frame looks to be Macon, or Gainesville or Athens, GA.   I say this to say... the NWS cone and projected line is WEST of Atlanta.  The models seem to take a line East of Atlanta.  Why?  What am I missing?  Somebody straighten me out.

[BooneWX]

5 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

Maybe someone on here can answer this without ripping me a new butt hole.  But, I have looked at all the operation models.  GFS, EURO, NAM, HRRR, HWRF... you name it.  They for the most part have the LPS coming on shore in the Big Bend area and then moving on a line to about Tifton, GA and then depending on the model, the next frame looks to be Macon, or Gainesville or Athens, GA.   I say this to say... the NWS cone and projected line is WEST of Atlanta.  The models seem to take a line East of Atlanta.  Why?  What am I missing?  Somebody straighten me out.

I can’t directly speak to the reasoning behind the NHC being on the western side of guidance but if I had to take a stab at it, we have a complex interaction with the upper level low over the Ozarks. I think they may be banking on Helene feeling that tug to the west a bit more than the models indicate. Also important to note that the models are initializing Helene as a stronger cane than it currently is. A stronger system will resist the tug from the ULL and try to go more poleward. Since the models seem to be overdoing intensity at the moment, they’re probably going to be spot on with the track being further west than guidance.

[HWY316wx]

6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I can’t directly speak to the reasoning behind the NHC being on the western side of guidance but if I had to take a stab at it, we have a complex interaction with the upper level low over the Ozarks. I think they may be banking on Helene feeling that tug to the west a bit more than the models indicate. Also important to note that the models are initializing Helene as a stronger cane than it currently is. A stronger system will resist the tug from the ULL and try to go more poleward. Since the models seem to be overdoing intensity at the moment, they’re probably going to be spot on with the track being further west than guidance.

Ok.  That makes sense.  I could not for the life of me figure out why... this makes sense.  

[Daniel Boone]

15 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I can’t directly speak to the reasoning behind the NHC being on the western side of guidance but if I had to take a stab at it, we have a complex interaction with the upper level low over the Ozarks. I think they may be banking on Helene feeling that tug to the west a bit more than the models indicate. Also important to note that the models are initializing Helene as a stronger cane than it currently is. A stronger system will resist the tug from the ULL and try to go more poleward. Since the models seem to be overdoing intensity at the moment, they’re probably going to be spot on with the track being further west than guidance.

In many cases the Models have underestimated intensity upon landfall. That's when we'll have a better idea of whether the track will be further east or not. As you alluded to, the stronger, the more it'll resist the pull .

[Shack]

Had the same thinking all day.  "What's up with that track?," in that NHC has it centered waay west of what the big-boy models project. But, hoping that GFS et al, were right and the highest wind field stayed  a little east(of me.  Sorry, Augusta).

What Boone said is likely spot-on. 

But, topic for another thread, how does a model initialize "stronger" when the data at onset of the model run is fed to into the program as "existing conditions?"

[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, Shack said:

Had the same thinking all day.  "What's up with that track?," in that NHC has it centered waay west of what the big-boy models project. But, hoping that GFS et al, were right and the highest wind field stayed  a little east.

What Boone said is likely spot-on. 

But, topic for another thread, how does a model initialize "stronger" when the data at onset of the model run is fed to into the program as "existing conditions?"

@Shackive honestly had the same question for a while but most of the hurricane models have initialized as much as 10mb too low compared to obs from hurricane hunters. Sort of speaks to the need this nation has for better funding and resources being allocated to our weather data.

[JoshM]

These storms usually have some surprise at the 11th hour. Hurricane Floyd always pops into my head for my area. Thought it was gonna be a Hugo redux and we got nothing (even had blue skies that day). School was closed that day.

[wncsnow]

Some 7 to 8 inch reports already coming in near the top of Old Fort mountains

[wncsnow]

Just to show how fast a river can go from 2.5 feet to over 9 feet 

[wncsnow]

GFS just had it's worst run yet. Stronger, slightly east. Gulp.

[Rainforrest]

6.10 for the day. Let’s see what the rest of tonight and tomorrow brings. 

[Jrlg1181]

Just picked up a surprising 2.30 inches with lighter rain continuing all the way up here in Waynesboro Va...

[strongwxnc]

Did not get into much last night as the flow was to my west. But that looks to change soon this morning. As others have stated, this type can put out lots of rain in a short amount of time.