Major Hurricane Helene

[Met1985]

I actually think I bit of a west jog would be really bad for us because it puts us on the NW side of Helene.  We get the brunt of anything that is still with her and it drags that train of moisture right through WNC. Just my opinion. 

[wncsnow]

HRRR total rainfall

[ncjoaquin]

2 hours ago, Rainforrest said:

I see that purple starting to creep into the picture. Not good at all. 

No, absolutely not! You are going to see monumental totals. 

[buckeyefan1]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

I actually think I bit of a west jog would be really bad for us because it puts us on the NW side of Helene.  We get the brunt of anything that is still with her and it drags that train of moisture right through WNC. Just my opinion. 

It looks like it has made the turn north, if not just east of north, earlier than expected. 

[olafminesaw]

Follow the convergence for a rough idea of where the highest impact will occur.

[Met1985]

10 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

It looks like it has made the turn north, if not just east of north, earlier than expected. 

Yeah I just read that. Not good at all. Looks like the original forecast to miss the Yucatan will turn out true.  This is good news for strengthening but bad news for us. The bigger, the meaner, the more this thing grows the worst is will possibly be for us. Again just my observation. 

[Franklin0529]

Chances braves an Mets play today??

[Rainforrest]

11 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Chances braves an Mets play today??

Not looking good. Lol

[wncsnow]

Hi Res NAM 

[wncsnow]

Regular NAM 

[Met1985]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Regular NAM 

Huge increase on the NAM from 6z. 

[Met1985]

I'm watching this really close. I think this is the start of everything this afternoon.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[Met1985]

We got us a Hurricane!

Hurricane Helene. 80mph 979mb

[wncsnow]

25 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I'm watching this really close. I think this is the start of everything this afternoon.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Will be interesting to see how far east it gets. 

[BooneWX]

I don’t know how much stock to put in the in-house models for weather stations but in Brad Ps update, the winds were knocking on the 70 mph door outside of the high elevations as well. 

[Rainforrest]

Well a tropical storm watch for Transylvania county. That’s a new one. Lol

[buckeyefan1]

Helene watch/warning advisory number 9
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami fl     al092024
1107 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024
This product covers southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina

**HELENE BECOMES A HURRICANE**

 NEW INFORMATION ---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: 
 - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Coastal Georgetown  and Coastal Horry

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: 
 - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Georgetown and  Coastal Horry

* STORM INFORMATION: 
 - About 1010 miles south-southwest of Wilmington NC or about 950  miles south-southwest of Myrtle Beach SC 
 - 21.6N 86.3W 
 - Storm Intensity 80 mph 
 - Movement North-northwest or 330 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------

Due to its large physical size Helene will bring some peripheral effects to the area. Very outer tropical bands will be capable of producing moderate rainfall and breezy conditions. There will also be a small but non-zero tornado threat. Hazardous marine conditions will develop with large waves and tropical storm forced wind gusts. The main timing window of these impacts will be late Thursday into early Friday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS -----------------

* TORNADOES: Prepare for a dangerous tornado event having possible significant impacts across Southeast North Carolina and Northeast South Carolina. Potential impacts include: 
 - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder preparedness  actions during tropical events. 
 - Tornadoes can rip roofs from homes, destroy mobile homes, cause  trees to become snapped or uprooted, flip cars and boats.  Dangerous projectiles can add to the damage. 
 - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots  of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.

Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across Southeast North Carolina and Northeast South Carolina.

* FLOODING RAIN: Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts across Southeast North Carolina and Northeast South Carolina. Potential impacts include: 
 - Moderate flooding from rainfall may prompt some evacuations and  rescues especially in Northeast South Carolina. 
 - Driving conditions will become hazardous, and some road  closures can be expected.

Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited impacts across Northeast South Carolina and Southeast North Carolina.

* WIND: Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ----------------------------------

 * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track as there are inherent forecast uncertainties which must be taken into account.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any orders that are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be conducted as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong gusty winds and heavy rain can cause certain preparedness activities to become unsafe.

Visitors to the area should become familiar with nearby surroundings. If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which you are located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio or other local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast.

 * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE -----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Wilmington NC around 5 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

[strongwxnc]

Well a tropical storm watch for Transylvania county. That’s a new one. Lol

Same thing down here. I’ve never seen that for this area.


.

[ncjoaquin]

Just now, Rainforrest said:

Well a tropical storm watch for Transylvania county. That’s a new one. Lol

Just getting ready to post that. This is the one for Buncombe.

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NCZ053&warncounty=NCC021&firewxzone=NCZ053&local_place1=Bent Creek NC&product1=Tropical+Storm+Watch&lat=35.5109&lon=-82.6143

 

The first person who says after the fact that "the NWS didn't even say it was going to rain" needs to be told what an  idiot that they are. It will happen. It does every time.

The NWS pulled no punches talking about how dangerous it is. Now, it is up to the public to listen and use common sense.

 

 

 

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, strongwxnc said:

Same thing down here. I’ve never seen that for this area.


.

I really like how intentional they are being with the messaging. Surely people will take this seriously. 

[Met1985]

TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

 

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible

somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours

 

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED

    - Waynesville

 

* WIND

    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind

        - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 55 mph

 

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39

      to 57 mph

        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm

          force.

        - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be

          underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.

        - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind

          becomes hazardous.

 

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited

        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored

          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.

        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or

          uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees

          are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown

          over.

        - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within

          urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving

          conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.

        - Scattered power and communications outages.

 

* FLOODING RAIN

    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect

        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 6-10 inches, with locally

          higher amounts

[BooneWX]

We’re in rarified air. WOW. 

[Met1985]

Never have I seen this either. Great action from the NWS here.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[buckeyefan1]

 

Helene Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 9
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC  AL092024
1127 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

SCZ104-252330-
/O.NEW.KGSP.TR.A.1009.240925T1527Z-000000T0000Z/
Greater Oconee-
1127 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible
somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Seneca
    - Walhalla

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
      to 57 mph
        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
          force.
        - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
          underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
        - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
          becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
          uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
          are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
          over.
        - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
          urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
          conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 8-12 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for extreme
      flooding rain
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          extreme flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
          are likely.
        - PREPARE: Urgently consider protective actions from extreme
          and widespread rainfall flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
        - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations
          and rescues.
        - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their
          banks in many places with deep moving water. Small streams,
          creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become raging
          rivers. In mountain areas, deadly runoff may rage down
          valleys while increasing susceptibility to rockslides and
          mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers may become
          stressed.
        - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
          communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
          washed away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover
          escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
          raging water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
          become very dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures
          with some weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
      tornadoes
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
          few tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
          tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
          hazardous weather arrives.
        - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
          quickly.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
          shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - http://scemd.org/planandprepare

[BooneWX]

Just now, Met1985 said:

Never have I seen this either. Great action from the NWS here.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

An image worth archiving 

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

An image worth archiving 

No doubt! Amazing. 

[strongwxnc]

I really like how intentional they are being with the messaging. Surely people will take this seriously. 

Yup! As a person who covers buses at my school and they leave around 5:25am, this is good info to make decisions early !


.

[wncsnow]

6 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Yup! As a person who covers buses at my school and they leave around 5:25am, this is good info to make decisions early !


.

Schools should be closed Friday. They should go ahead and make the decision. Tomorrow is more tricky

[olafminesaw]

Worth noting there his a high degree of forecast error possible after landfall, in terms of track and wind, due to the complex interaction with the ULL as well as poor forecast accuracy related strength and placement of ULLs to begin with. 

[BretWx]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

I'm watching this really close. I think this is the start of everything this afternoon.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

I've been watching this too on the models. Almost like the stream of moisture never stops from the Gulf once this arrives. Those 10-15in WNC rain totals may come to fruition. Even more possible I am afraid.