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Major Hurricane Helene


BooneWX
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Good afternoon everyone.

I think it's good to note that the ULL is going to drop a lot of that rain at least IMBY before the hurricane gets here.  Totals are totals, but I think a lot of people think these totals are coming from just the Helene.  It's kinda wild to me that we will get an ULL and then a Hurricane right behind it.  Don't recall that scenario in my years of tracking.

GFS_ULL.PNG

GFS_Helene_rain.PNG

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9 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

Good afternoon everyone.

I think it's good to note that the ULL is going to drop a lot of that rain at least IMBY before the hurricane gets here.  Totals are totals, but I think a lot of people think these totals are coming from just the Helene.  It's kinda wild to me that we will get an ULL and then a Hurricane right behind it.  Don't recall that scenario in my years of tracking.

GFS_ULL.PNG

GFS_Helene_rain.PNG

The amount of rain being shown from the ULL is absolutely being influenced by Helene. That's the PRE.

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Rabun-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-

Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-

Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-Rutherford

Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-

Greenville Mountains-

Including the cities of Hot Springs, Mountain Rest, Cullowhee,

Kyle, Franklin, Sylva, Brevard, Ramseytown, Spruce Pine,

Asheville, Alarka, Stecoah, Old Fort, Busick, Mountain City,

Cruso, Canton, Jonas Ridge, Cedar Mountain, Saluda, Burnsville,

Swiss, East Flat Rock, Waterville, Black Mountain, Cashiers,

Newland, Ingalls, Almond, Luada, Banner Elk, Bryson City, Cove

Creek, Wesser, Faust, Micaville, Marshall, Walnut, Poplar,

Robbinsville, Rainbow Springs, Patterson, Tuckasegee, Little

River, Woodlawn, Chimney Rock State Park, Mars Hill, Glassy

Mountain, Waynesville, Highlands, Ashford, Pine Mountain, Luck,

Hendersonville, Etowah, Sugar Hill, Fletcher, Celo, Allenstand,

Rocky Bottom, Clayton, Tuxedo, Wolf Mountain, Dana, and Candler

322 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

 

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY

AFTERNOON...

 

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

 

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Georgia, including the following

  area, Rabun, western North Carolina, including the following

  areas, Avery, Buncombe, Burke Mountains, Caldwell Mountains,

  Graham, Haywood, Henderson, Macon, Madison, McDowell Mountains,

  Mitchell, Northern Jackson, Polk Mountains, Rutherford Mountains,

  Southern Jackson, Swain, Transylvania and Yancey, and upstate

  South Carolina, including the following areas, Greenville

  Mountains, Oconee Mountains and Pickens Mountains.

 

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Friday afternoon.

 

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in significant and damaging

  flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and

  flood-prone locations. Areas that are not typically impacted by

  floodwaters may flood.

 

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Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are expected due to the

    interaction of tropical moisture along a stationary front,

    followed by the passage of Tropical Storm Helene. Storm-total

    rainfall of 8-12 inches is expected along the entire length

    of the Blue Ridge Escarpment with widespread 5-8 inches

    expected across the remainder of the mountains as well as the

    Piedmont. This has the potential to be an extremely rare

    event with significant and damaging flash-flooding along

    numerous streams.

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Quite the wobble north on the last several frames. This could have major impacts downstream. Sheer is nearly gone, outflow is starting to establish a nice moist envelope ahead of it. If it can avoid landfall in the Yucatán…. Bombs away. I’m actually wondering if a close shave with the Yucatán could be a worse case scenario. Friction with the coast could tighten up any primitive core quickly. That scenario would also lend credit to the models projecting landfall just north of Cedar Key - which increases the odds of putting the remnant core directly over western NC and the Upstate.

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Flood Watch
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
322 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

GAZ017-018-026-SCZ104-105-250700-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FA.A.0008.240925T1500Z-240927T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Including the cities of Royston, Canon, Demorest, Easley,
Clemson, Seneca, Lavonia, Dacusville, Toccoa, Gumlog, Baldwin,
Franklin Springs, Walhalla, Westminster, Boydville, Hollywood,
Cornelia, Clarkesville, and Oakway
322 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Georgia, including the following
  areas, Franklin, Habersham and Stephens and upstate South
  Carolina, including the following areas, Greater Oconee and
  Greater Pickens.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in significant and damaging
  flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and
  flood-prone locations.  Areas that are not typically impacted by
  floodwaters may flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are expected due to the
    interaction of tropical moisture along a stationary front,
    followed by the passage of Tropical Storm Helene. Storm-total
    rainfall of 8-12 inches is expected along the entire length
    of the Blue Ridge Escarpment with widespread 5-8 inches
    expected across the remainder of the mountains as well as the
    Piedmont.  This has the potential to be an extremely rare
    event with significant and damaging flash-flooding along
    numerous streams.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch for flash flooding means there is a potential for
rapid onset flooding based on current forecasts. Flash flooding is a
very dangerous situation and may impact areas that do not typically
flood. Please monitor the latest forecasts and be prepared to take
action quickly should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

TBW

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  • BooneWX changed the title to Major Hurricane Helene

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