BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 12:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:09 PM Starting a thread because this is going to be a very impactful event from Florida to the Carolinas and we don’t get to start enough storm threads these days anyways. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 12:14 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 12:14 PM Rain will be the big story in the Carolinas but with ample pre-event rainfall this week, even shaving 10% off of these numbers is nerve wrecking for many 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted Tuesday at 12:14 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:14 PM Getting a jump start on the heavy rain Picked up .39 yesterday and 2.57 last night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Tuesday at 12:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:28 PM 12 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Rain will be the big story in the Carolinas but with ample pre-event rainfall this week, even shaving 10% off of these numbers is nerve wrecking for many I think winds are a big concern for the higher elevations of the southern Apps, even if Helene is not as strong as some of the models sugguest at landfall. I am hopeful that winds will have lost their punch by the time they get to the Northern Piedmont 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eolian Posted Tuesday at 12:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:54 PM The current forecast is it will be moving north so fast the wind field is going to be really bad the storm may even be a cat 1 in the upstate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 01:15 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:15 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Tuesday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:35 PM I know the past couple days the forecast has called for us to get absolutely hammered. Until this thing hits the coast I'd err on the side of caution. Even small little tweaks in the forecast will lead to big impacts for all of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Tuesday at 02:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:50 PM As I say the above just to help keep things grounded but the way things look currently we are in fact in the bullseye with this thing and as mentioned from previous post in the tropical thread this thing might be moving at 25mph. Good for cutting down on rainfall rates a but but bad because the wind field will be mostly intact and that could be very damaging to the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Tuesday at 03:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:02 PM This predecessor rainfall event may be a death blow to us. This keeps inching more and more into our area for heavy rainfall from this first upper low. 12z NAM...Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 03:06 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 03:06 PM It’s now official. Helene is born. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 03:07 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 03:07 PM 3 minutes ago, Met1985 said: This predecessor rainfall event may be a death blow to us. This keeps inching more and more into our area for heavy rainfall from this first upper low. 12z NAM... Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk We’ve been so very fortunate in recent tropical setups over the past few years to have borderline drought conditions preceding the higher wind threat. Not this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 03:10 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:10 PM 12Z ICON is another big hit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 03:15 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:15 PM I don't see how we can escape major flooding this time. Probably the worst since 2004 with Frances and Ivan for the central and northern foothills and mountains 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Tuesday at 03:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:27 PM 16 minutes ago, wncsnow said: 12Z ICON is another big hit Yeah and if Helene comes through like the models are showing this is underestimating totals. I know I said that yesterday but this is a big issue if true. That's basically 5 to 10 inches plus for several in the viewing area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 03:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:38 PM Early map from GSP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 03:39 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 03:39 PM Just now, wncsnow said: Early map from GSP You hate to see rain totals that would get you excited if they were snow totals. Never good! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 03:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:42 PM Just now, BooneWX said: You hate to see rain totals that would get you excited if they were snow totals. Never good! Bad thing is that's probably underdone too for upslope areas. I say 12-14" is likely unless the track changes drastically and the Precursor event totally misses us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted Tuesday at 03:43 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:43 PM 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Early map from GSP Little conservative I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 03:50 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 03:50 PM Much weaker GFS run incoming after it interacts heavily with the Yucatán. We’ll see if it has any downstream impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Tuesday at 03:53 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:53 PM 12z gfs honing in on the predecessor rainfall. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Tuesday at 03:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:54 PM Looks like the upper low pushes is a bit further east this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 03:55 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 03:55 PM 4 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Much weaker GFS run incoming after it interacts heavily with the Yucatán. We’ll see if it has any downstream impacts. Update: Very little difference. GFS is closer to the 00Z run but we still get zero metered by a reasonably strong tropical storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Tuesday at 03:57 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:57 PM 12z gfs Helene runSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 04:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:09 PM Precursor rain keeps moving east on models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Tuesday at 04:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:13 PM 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Precursor rain keeps moving east on models. Yeah that's not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 04:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:13 PM 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Yeah that's not good at all. That upper low keeps shifting east moving the boundary with it. It makes sense for it to be over or near the Apps/Blue Ridge unfortunately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Tuesday at 04:15 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:15 PM Just now, wncsnow said: That upper low keeps shifting east moving the boundary with it. It makes since for it to be over or near the Apps/Blue Ridge unfortunately Yeah it does. I really don't think it will move much more than it has because of the Apps and the steering current. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 04:20 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 04:20 PM Looking more closely at the GFS, it shows the system struggling to stack vertically with the mid level and llc displaced until it’s well into the Gulf. Taking that with a grain of salt considering the sw sheer its feeling is abating quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 04:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:25 PM Not good when an ensemble Mean is showing 7+ inches of rain across the area... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 04:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:27 PM This is the AI euro model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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