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2024-2025 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread


Buckethead
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Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Catawba-

Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-

Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford

Mountains-Polk Mountains-

Including the cities of Etowah, Spruce Pine, Valdese, Fletcher,

Ingalls, Dysartsville, Poplar, Mooresville, Lenoir, Marion,

Newton, Ramseytown, Morganton, Farmington, Hickory, Asheville,

Mocksville, Taylorsville, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Statesville,

Hendersonville, Burnsville, Chimney Rock State Park, Bethlehem,

Newland, Swiss, Glenwood, Kings Creek, Fork Church, Granite

Falls, Ellendale, Fero, Stony Point, East Flat Rock, Candler,

Tuxedo, Banner Elk, Advance, Dana, Micaville, Jonas Ridge,

Millersville, Nebo, Old Fort, Black Mountain, Sawmills,

Patterson, Celo, Hiddenite, St. Stephens, Pleasant Grove,

Ashford, Saluda, and Busick

214 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST

WEDNESDAY...

 

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Precipitation may start out as

  sleet or a wintry mix in the Northern Mountains overnight tonight,

  with minor sleet accumulations. Total ice accumulations around two

  tenths of an inch possible, mainly along the Blue Ridge

  Escarpment. Piedmont areas are expected to have up to a few

  hundredths of an inch of ice.

 

* WHERE...The Northern Mountains, portions of the French Broad

  Valley and adjacent foothills, and most of the Northwest Piedmont

  in North Carolina.

 

* WHEN...From 1 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

 

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PRECIP RATES THROUGH THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE TAME, WITH FORCING   LIMITED TO RATHER SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS SUCH, ANY FREEZING   RAIN SHOULD BE WELL WITHIN THE BOUNDARIES OF WINTER WX ADVISORY   CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, PRECIP RATES WILL PICK   UP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, AS THE BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL   FORCING SHIFTS EAST. THIS IS WHEN THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING IN   TERMS OF ICE ACCRETION ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AREAS OF THE NORTHERN   MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM THIS   AFTERNOON/ EVENING, AS THE PARENT HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF THE   COAST. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND   SOUTHERN CANADA IS ACTUALLY RATHER COMPLEX, WITH TWO ANTICYCLONES   EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER RIDGE. ONE OF THESE WILL BE STRENGTHENING   (TO > 1030 MB) AND LOCATED SOUTH OF HUDSONS BAY BY 00Z WED...I.E.,   MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE POSITION FOR REINFORCING THE   CAD. THEREFORE, IT'S NOT AT ALL CLEAR THAT LOCATIONS ALONG THE   NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...ESP EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL WARM   ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIP RATES ARRIVE. AS A   CONSEQUENCE, IT'S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT A NARROW AXIS OF DAMAGING   ICE (.25-.5") WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AVERY COUNTY AS WELL AS   FAR SOUTHERN MITCHELL/YANCEY, AND AREAS ABOVE ~2500' IN   MCDOWELL/BURKE/CALDWELL. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NWS BLACKSBURG,   THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO TO UPGRADE TO AN ICE   STORM WARNING IN AVERY AND BURKE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE REST OF THIS   AREA, CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH THAT ENOUGH OF THE FORECAST ZONE   WILL SEE WARNING CRITERIA TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE, BUT WORDING TO THIS   EFFECT WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE UPDATED ADVISORY. OTHERWISE, NO   CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO CURRENT HEADLINES. OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHERN   MOUNTAINS, THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISED AREA SHOULD SEE UNDER 0.1"   OF ICE, WITH ONLY MINOR TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES EXPECTED OWING TO   MARGINAL TEMPS AND WARM ROADS.

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