2024-2025 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

[franklin NCwx]

Not very often you see this!

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=TAE&wwa=winter storm warning

[NavarreDon]

[mention=2594]NavarreDon[/mention]  If I was a MET I would have added another paragraph at the end of that statement.  Something like:
 Please keep in mind that we are talking about a storm that will most likely give us 3” of snow with some pockets of 6” possible. Roofs are not going to collapse and there will be no avalanches sweeping us into the Gulf.  As mentioned above it has not snowed this much in this area in over 100 years.   Layer up with sweaters and jackets, walk outside and enjoy something you will most likely never see again in your lifetime. Have a snowball fight, build a snowman, just take a walk and enjoy the sights with family and friends.

Hahahahahahahaha!!! A+!

I feel like I’ve entered some alternate reality and I’m back living off of New Stock Rd in N Asheville! Here is my pinpoint NWS forecast hot off the presses….

Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tuesday
Snow, mainly after noon. High near 35. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tuesday Night
Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 21. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.


Here is a snippet of the MOB AFD, I recommend a full read if you have a chance,

...A major, potentially historic winter storm is likely across the
area Tuesday through Tuesday night...

Overview:

Confidence has increased in a major to historic winter storm for the
forecast area, particularly across the southern half of the area in
the vicinity of the I-10 corridor Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening. Forecast guidance this morning and so far early this
afternoon continues to favor a corridor of heavier snow nearer the
coast, with snowfall totals throughout the event on the order of 1
to 3 inches areawide, locally up to 4 or 5 inches over the southern
half of the area. Confidence on higher snowfall totals exists across
the southern half of the forecast area in the vicinity of the I-10
corridor. This storm has the potential to be historic for portions
of the forecast area, with Mobile`s 24hr snowfall record being 6"
set in 1895, and Pensacola`s 24hr snowfall record being 3" set in
1895.

[ncjoaquin]

22 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Hahahahahahahaha!!! A+!

I feel like I’ve entered some alternate reality and I’m back living off of New Stock Rd in N Asheville! Here is my pinpoint NWS forecast hot off the presses….

Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tuesday
Snow, mainly after noon. High near 35. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tuesday Night
Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 21. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.


Here is a snippet of the MOB AFD, I recommend a full read if you have a chance,

...A major, potentially historic winter storm is likely across the
area Tuesday through Tuesday night...

Overview:

Confidence has increased in a major to historic winter storm for the
forecast area, particularly across the southern half of the area in
the vicinity of the I-10 corridor Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening. Forecast guidance this morning and so far early this
afternoon continues to favor a corridor of heavier snow nearer the
coast, with snowfall totals throughout the event on the order of 1
to 3 inches areawide, locally up to 4 or 5 inches over the southern
half of the area. Confidence on higher snowfall totals exists across
the southern half of the forecast area in the vicinity of the I-10
corridor. This storm has the potential to be historic for portions
of the forecast area, with Mobile`s 24hr snowfall record being 6"
set in 1895, and Pensacola`s 24hr snowfall record being 3" set in
1895.

Good luck, Don!! I hope you get a record!!!

 

[strongwxnc]

33 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Hahahahahahahaha!!! A+!

I feel like I’ve entered some alternate reality and I’m back living off of New Stock Rd in N Asheville! Here is my pinpoint NWS forecast hot off the presses….

Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tuesday
Snow, mainly after noon. High near 35. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tuesday Night
Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 21. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.


Here is a snippet of the MOB AFD, I recommend a full read if you have a chance,

...A major, potentially historic winter storm is likely across the
area Tuesday through Tuesday night...

Overview:

Confidence has increased in a major to historic winter storm for the
forecast area, particularly across the southern half of the area in
the vicinity of the I-10 corridor Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening. Forecast guidance this morning and so far early this
afternoon continues to favor a corridor of heavier snow nearer the
coast, with snowfall totals throughout the event on the order of 1
to 3 inches areawide, locally up to 4 or 5 inches over the southern
half of the area. Confidence on higher snowfall totals exists across
the southern half of the forecast area in the vicinity of the I-10
corridor. This storm has the potential to be historic for portions
of the forecast area, with Mobile`s 24hr snowfall record being 6"
set in 1895, and Pensacola`s 24hr snowfall record being 3" set in
1895.

Yes sir! Good luck way down south Don!!!

 

[Met1985]

Don't look now but we could be in play to see some festive flakes from this southern storm. 

[strongwxnc]

Just now, Met1985 said:

Don't look know but we could be in play to see some festive flakes from this southern storm. 

Im down for sure. That tilt on the 18 GFS looks a lot better at HR 36.

[Met1985]

Just now, strongwxnc said:

Im down for sure. That tilt on the 18 GFS looks a lot better at HR 36.

Yeah this thing could still trend our way a bit..we've seen crazier things happen around here.

[Silver Meteor]

The formative stage is there. A clear wind shift and showers starting along the Tex/Mex border.

 

[gopack42]

1 hour ago, NavarreDon said:

Hahahahahahahaha!!! A+!

I feel like I’ve entered some alternate reality and I’m back living off of New Stock Rd in N Asheville! Here is my pinpoint NWS forecast hot off the presses….

Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tuesday
Snow, mainly after noon. High near 35. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tuesday Night
Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 21. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.


Here is a snippet of the MOB AFD, I recommend a full read if you have a chance,

...A major, potentially historic winter storm is likely across the
area Tuesday through Tuesday night...

Overview:

Confidence has increased in a major to historic winter storm for the
forecast area, particularly across the southern half of the area in
the vicinity of the I-10 corridor Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening. Forecast guidance this morning and so far early this
afternoon continues to favor a corridor of heavier snow nearer the
coast, with snowfall totals throughout the event on the order of 1
to 3 inches areawide, locally up to 4 or 5 inches over the southern
half of the area. Confidence on higher snowfall totals exists across
the southern half of the forecast area in the vicinity of the I-10
corridor. This storm has the potential to be historic for portions
of the forecast area, with Mobile`s 24hr snowfall record being 6"
set in 1895, and Pensacola`s 24hr snowfall record being 3" set in
1895.

 

[gopack42]

What color does the NWS use to show "Roof Collapse Watch" and "Roof Collapse Warnings" on their maps?

[Tyler Penland]

Just got home from GA. Looks like we hit 5 this morning. Currently 2.5" of powder so I'm guessing it was closer to 3 before compaction this morning. Brings me to 16.8" for the season with a handful of traces to boot.

[Met1985]

After a high of 19 I'm down to 11 degrees already.  This cold is stout. No records though as the Arctic outbreak of 1985 is right in the time period and that was a beast of a cold front.

[Orange county]

15 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

After a high of 19 I'm down to 11 degrees already.  This cold is stout. No records though as the Arctic outbreak of 1985 is right in the time period and that was a beast of a cold front.

I was listening to some Met that night He splained as how the cold air was so deep the Mountains in NC did not slow it down-just  poured East He had never seen such

[Buckethead]

After a high of 19 I'm down to 11 degrees already.  This cold is stout. No records though as the Arctic outbreak of 1985 is right in the time period and that was a beast of a cold front.

Currently sitting at -0.6° after a high of 5°.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

[wncsnow]

9 minutes ago, Orange county said:

I was listening to some Met that night He splained as how the cold air was so deep the Mountains in NC did not slow it down-just  poured East He had never seen such

The mountains definitely slowed it down. It was 48 here while it was 25 at Bucketheads. 

[NavarreDon]

Hurricane Hunter is sampling out in the gulf to aid the models with this system.


.

[Met1985]

27 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Currently sitting at -0.6° after a high of 5°.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah you and others are going below zero for a few nights.

[Met1985]

29 minutes ago, Orange county said:

I was listening to some Met that night He splained as how the cold air was so deep the Mountains in NC did not slow it down-just  poured East He had never seen such

Yeah I had family tell me that cars was stalled out and it basically shut down a lot of places it was so cold. Actual air temps near negative 20...

[USCG RS]

13 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Hurricane Hunter is sampling out in the gulf to aid the models with this system.


.

Given the current changes in models, I would not be surprised to see significant changes in the 00/06z runs. Not saying there will be, just would not be surprised. 

[Met1985]

20 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The mountains definitely slowed it down. It was 48 here while it was 25 at Bucketheads. 

I think he might have been talking about the Arctic outbreak of 1985.

[Met1985]

15 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Hurricane Hunter is sampling out in the gulf to aid the models with this system.


.

Yeah I saw that was going into the 00z models tonight.  Interesting. 

[wncsnow]

Just now, Met1985 said:

I think he might have been talking about the Arctic outbreak of 1985.

Oh makes sense. I wasn't around for that but it was incredibly cold. Didn't snow much that winter either. 

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

Given the current changes in models, I would not be surprised to see significant changes in the 00/06z runs. Not saying there will be, just would not be surprised. 

Yeah for sure. I think we may see changes right through tomorrow. 

[Met1985]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Oh makes sense. I wasn't around for that but it was incredibly cold. Didn't snow much that winter either. 

Yeah IV read that it was literally too cold to snow much that winter.  

[Moonhowl]

10 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I think he might have been talking about the Arctic outbreak of 1985.

I remember that one quite well.  A buddy of mine was at App State at the time, he put on all the winter clothes he had and hiked up to the fire tower above Boone.  Took his camera, film camera, and it froze.  Raleigh, NC had its all time low of -9 F during that event.

[chris21]

2 degrees currently and very calm after a high of 12.

[Met1985]

2 minutes ago, Moonhowl said:

I remember that one quite well.  A buddy of mine was at App State at the time, he put on all the winter clothes he had and hiked up to the fire tower above Boone.  Took his camera, film camera, and it froze.  Raleigh, NC had its all time low of -9 F during that event.

Yeah I think our all time cold temps came from that 1985 Arctic outbreak.

[ncjoaquin]

5 minutes ago, Moonhowl said:

I remember that one quite well.  A buddy of mine was at App State at the time, he put on all the winter clothes he had and hiked up to the fire tower above Boone.  Took his camera, film camera, and it froze.  Raleigh, NC had its all time low of -9 F during that event.

I was at NC State at the time. I was parking at the fringe lot. I had already walked a long way.  Some lady's battery died and she needed a jump. I felt like I was literally going to freeze to death out there. I briefly hated her, but I got over it, lol.

 

[Met1985]

I love trolling the main board this winter. 

[Maggie Valley Steve]

40 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Hurricane Hunter is sampling out in the gulf to aid the models with this system.


.

They will be flying again for the 12Z output.