2024-2025 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

[Met1985]

More pics from flow snow.

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[Maggie Valley Steve]

Just got back from the Pkwy at Soco Gap. Still snowing with a little over 14 inches up there.

[WxKnurd]

Nice pics everyone! Starting to think I’m too close to the Buncombe County snow hole since the county like is only 2-300 yards away haha! Quick walk around the property earlier found 2” in last nights tire tracks and sheltered spots with 3”.  So unofficially I think we ended up around 4” snow plus whatever sleet fell for the storm total.  2-3” is what’s on the ground and deck right now with pixie dust light snow falling all morning.  Guess the better stuff stayed south of me last night since Met measured 6.5” and my buddies in waynesville and Clyde said 6” for them too.  I’ve been having a sneaking suspicion lately that even at my elevation I get downsloped by Crabtree and Sandy Mush Balda since they are 1500’ higher. 

[NavarreDon]

Happy for all who cashed & especially those who over preformed! I’m really liking the pattern for the next couple weeks so, I might pop in or stick around.


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[Met1985]

3 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

Nice pics everyone! Starting to think I’m too close to the Buncombe County snow hole since the county like is only 2-300 yards away haha! Quick walk around the property earlier found 2” in last nights tire tracks and sheltered spots with 3”.  So unofficially I think we ended up around 4” snow plus whatever sleet fell for the storm total.  2-3” is what’s on the ground and deck right now with pixie dust light snow falling all morning.  Guess the better stuff stayed south of me last night since Met measured 6.5” and my buddies in waynesville and Clyde said 6” for them too.  I’ve been having a sneaking suspicion lately that even at my elevation I get downsloped by Crabtree and Sandy Mush Balda since they are 1500’ higher. 

Yeah when I drove up Rush Fork and Fines Creek, I was amazed at how little snow they had. I had to go up to over 4k feet to find anything significant but then even going out to lower Max Patch rd it was putrid. This storm was wild.

[Met1985]

5 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Happy for all who cashed & especially those who over preformed! I’m really liking the pattern for the next couple weeks so, I might pop in or stick around.


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You should Don! Pattern looks ripe.

[Maggie Valley Steve]

5 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Happy for all who cashed & especially those who over preformed! I’m really liking the pattern for the next couple weeks so, I might pop in or stick around.


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Always great to have you around Don. I'm very optimistic with the pattern we're in up to the last week of January. A lot of potential!

[gopack42]

It's almost a blizzard up here.  Still coming down really well and the wind is howling.  

[WxKnurd]

39 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah when I drove up Rush Fork and Fines Creek, I was amazed at how little snow they had. I had to go up to over 4k feet to find anything significant but then even going out to lower Max Patch rd it was putrid. This storm was wild.

Yea as always, get under a good band with good flake size and that’s the ticket.  We just didn’t have majority of fat flakes for any consistent amount of time for it to rack up from what I saw last night.  You’d post it’s pouring fat flakes at your spot, I’d look out and it would be snowing good but dime sized at best before slacking off or going back to pixie dust almost. Give me moderate snow with nickels and quarters falling vs heavy rates with only pea size crystals.  Hence why based on my experience I always harp and worry about moisture in the dendrite growth region vs thermals.  One of these days this end of the county will get a 1936 blizzard again lol. Heading to Max Patch here shortly if I can talk the gf into getting out of the house. 

[WNC_Fort]

Over 4000’ might have eeked out a decent event but overall, man what a bust (outside of the NAM) 

[Met1985]

31 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

Over 4000’ might have eeked out a decent event but overall, man what a bust (outside of the NAM) 

It really wasn't a bust here. We've had several posters get 3 plus inches which is right in line for what the models showed. I'm sorry yall in the foothills got shadowed but the moisture feed wasn't right for yall and it showed. You need to go back and read through this thread and look at what people have posted on accumulations. It's very telling. 

[gopack42]

11 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

It really wasn't a bust here. We've had several posters get 3 plus inches which is right in line for what the models showed. I'm sorry yall in the foothills got shadowed but the moisture feed wasn't right for yall and it showed. You need to go back and read through this thread and look at what people have posted on accumulations. It's very telling. 

Agreed.  Definitely wasn't a bust here.  We even picked up a good bit today alone.  Id take this every storm.  

[SnowDawg]

Hi-res nam was absolute garbage in the SW mountains, GA, AL, MS, and TN. Its 18z run the night before the event still wasn't showing any snow in North GA, AL, or MS and incorrectly showed mixing way too far north in TN. Euro and RGEM were far superior to the NAM and it wasn't even close, I don't understand the praise it is getting.

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

Hi-res nam was absolute garbage in the SW mountains, GA, AL, MS, and TN. Its 18z run the night before the event still wasn't showing any snow in North GA, AL, or MS and incorrectly showed mixing way too far north in TN. Euro and RGEM were far superior to the NAM and it wasn't even close, I don't understand the praise it is getting.

Yeah absolutely.  The RGEM did a great job for the short range models.  The NAM was too amped in a lot of places and definitely failed in GA. I mean not 1 model was saying Atlanta was getting 5 inches. Euro did end up doing well also.

[WNC_Fort]

I think it depends on where you are located. Each model had flaws. I think for AVL/East towards Raleigh, the NAM scored in terms of calling for the transition to sleet and the warm nose/generally lower totals. 

The HRRR was trash in terms of amounts, except did fairly well for Atlanta. I just don't see how anyone considers this event anything but a bust unless you're in Atlanta or west. 

Upstate of SC did not get anywhere near the amount forecast. The foothills fared “ok” but generally lower than forecast. SW mountains were hit or miss. Charlotte was way under. Raleigh didn't get what the models were showing 24 hours before the event. Generally, an underperformer.

Look at how much Justus, Boyer, and Panovich were calling for just to see why many are calling it a bust. 

[Met1985]

3 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

I think it depends on where you are located. Each model had flaws. I think for AVL/East towards Raleigh, the NAM scored in terms of calling for the transition to sleet and the warm nose/generally lower totals. 

The HRRR was trash in terms of amounts, except did fairly well for Atlanta. I just don't see how anyone considers this event anything but a bust unless you're in Atlanta or west. 

Upstate of SC did not get anywhere near the amount forecast. The foothills fared “ok” but generally lower than forecast. SW mountains were hit or miss. Charlotte was way under. Raleigh didn't get what the models were showing 24 hours before the event. Generally, an underperformer.

Look at how much Justus, Boyer, and Panovich were calling for just to see why many are calling it a bust. 

Yeah the NAM scored on the warm nose but that eroded pretty quick. It was a mixed bag all over the SE. I know the guys in TN were not happy with the NAM because it was way to amped for them. 

[WiseWeather]

I think it depends on where you are located. Each model had flaws. I think for AVL/East towards Raleigh, the NAM scored in terms of calling for the transition to sleet and the warm nose/generally lower totals. 
The HRRR was trash in terms of amounts, except did fairly well for Atlanta. I just don't see how anyone considers this event anything but a bust unless you're in Atlanta or west. 
Upstate of SC did not get anywhere near the amount forecast. The foothills fared “ok” but generally lower than forecast. SW mountains were hit or miss. Charlotte was way under. Raleigh didn't get what the models were showing 24 hours before the event. Generally, an underperformer.
Look at how much Justus, Boyer, and Panovich were calling for just to see why many are calling it a bust. 

The foothills would have been at that total or above “if” that warm nose didnt move in during the hardest precip of the evening. It was fat heavy flakes and switched to sleet for 45 mins to an hr between 6-6:45.


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[Met1985]

2 minutes ago, WiseWeather said:

The foothills would have been at that total or above “if” that warm nose didnt move in during the hardest precip of the evening. It was fat heavy flakes and switched to sleet for 45 mins to an hr between 6-6:45.


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I actually think that heavy precipitation pulled down the warm air from aloft then switched back during the lighter periods at least for them.

[SnowDawg]

Even acknowledging the sort of unpredictable luck with that band setting up in Atlanta, the NAM completely busted in the rest of North GA until finally getting a clue morning of the event. The rgem and the Euro both showed the warm nose changing us to sleet, and then going back to snow. Albeit the changeover on those two being an hour or so too slow. No model was perfect for the region as a whole, but overall I'd bet the Euro probably scored best which should probably come as no surprise.

[Buckethead]

13 and light snow again in Wolf. Small flakes, so I doubt that we get any more accumulation. Nice to watch the upslope all day!

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[franklin NCwx]

1 hour ago, WNC_Fort said:

Over 4000’ might have eeked out a decent event but overall, man what a bust (outside of the NAM) 

Not a bust here. We had around 5 inches of frozen fall. Nam gave us several hrs of freezing rain. We only had sleet during the warm nose

[franklin NCwx]

42 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Hi-res nam was absolute garbage in the SW mountains, GA, AL, MS, and TN. Its 18z run the night before the event still wasn't showing any snow in North GA, AL, or MS and incorrectly showed mixing way too far north in TN. Euro and RGEM were far superior to the NAM and it wasn't even close, I don't understand the praise it is getting.

It was atrocious.  It basically had an apps runner that never verified 

[Met1985]

14 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Not a bust here. We had around 5 inches of frozen fall. Nam gave us several hrs of freezing rain. We only had sleet during the warm nose

Yeah your right. Absolutely no freezing rain around here that I can confirm!