2024-2025 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

[Met1985]

I honestly don't see us going from heavy snow to freezing rain. That dog don't hunt here. 

[BretWx]

We need that low a little further south. Colder, yes. Less moisture, yes. Within 48, yes. Things can change a lot? YES.

[Met1985]

6 minutes ago, BretWx said:

We need that low a little further south. Colder, yes. Less moisture, yes. Within 48, yes. Things can change a lot? YES.

I think us in the mountains are fine. I actually think the backside snow is being undercast by the models also.

[CheoahBald1]

I think us in the mountains are fine. I actually think the backside snow is being undercast by the models also.

I’m gonna ride the euro/gfs train until tomorrow night. I agree, from Haywood west looking good. Hoping for a good thump here in Graham county!


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[franklin NCwx]

6 minutes ago, CheoahBald1 said:

I’m gonna ride the euro/gfs train until tomorrow night. I agree, from Haywood west looking good. Hoping for a good thump here in Graham county!


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The Canadian and ukie line up with the euro as well.

[Rainforrest]

I don’t buy the 1-3. I think the southern escarpment has a chance to jackpot when all is said and done. I hope anyways. lol. 

[ncjoaquin]

From GSP. I fall in the 3 inch category and would take that in a heartbeat.

[WxKnurd]

Long time without logging in but I’ve been lurking mountain peeps!  If I was in Balsams and SW I’d be grinning ear to ear, think the west and southern end of Haywood is in for 6”+.  Not buying the p-type output just knowing our micro-climate but I have been surprised before.  All it takes is a dry layer in the dendrite growth zone to throw a major wrench into things.  For my place on the other side of the county I’m not liking the perpetual qpf minimum even though my experience and mind can’t rectify that happening.  Like @Met1985I believe backside flow snow is being under modeled, kinda what happened in 2022 after I just moved to my new place.  Synoptic portion of the storm was underwhelming relatively speaking but the wrap around  helped bump me from 4-6” to 10”.  Not the same setup but my feelings for a solid 4-6” in my area haven’t been shaken.  Still chasing a foot-plus storm since I’ve moved to the mountains but at least this year is better than last so far.  Think I’ve had some sort of snowfall on average of every other week since mid-November it seems. Nickel and dimed but bet I’m already approaching or at double digits which took every bit of last winter for me to reach.  

[buckeyefan1]

5 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said:

From GSP. I fall in the 3 inch category and would take that in a heartbeat.

Same!!

[BretWx]

I'm always rooting for a big storm but, hey, this thing is trending earlier and to even just watch the snow fall during the day for 12+ hours, I will take it! Starved down here. 

[franklin NCwx]

18z rgem

[WxKnurd]

That’s a SW Special there. Wayah, the Cowee’s, Snowbirds and Cheoahs would all be smoked! @snowbird1230will have some great skyway pics!

[strongwxnc]

3 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

That’s a SW Special there. Wayah, the Cowee’s, Snowbirds and Cheoahs would all be smoked! @snowbird1230will have some great skyway pics!

Sure is! very nice. 

[strongwxnc]

25 minutes ago, BretWx said:

I'm always rooting for a big storm but, hey, this thing is trending earlier and to even just watch the snow fall during the day for 12+ hours, I will take it! Starved down here. 

Sure is. IT has sped up a lot. 

[snowbird1230]

18 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

That’s a SW Special there. Wayah, the Cowee’s, Snowbirds and Cheoahs would all be smoked! @snowbird1230will have some great skyway pics!

Actually getting a good snow shower now! I'm glad there's sanity in this thread!

[Met1985]

Clouds rolling back in. After a high of 25 we are already back down to 20 degrees with a stiff breeze.

[Ja643y]

Asked this in the other thread, but probably better suited here. Noticed that a lot of models have a sort of enhanced area of snowfall in Mitchell and McDowell counties, specifically closer to the SW corner of Mitchel near Spruce Pine. Any ideas why? 

[wncsnow]

13 minutes ago, Ja643y said:

Asked this in the other thread, but probably better suited here. Noticed that a lot of models have a sort of enhanced area of snowfall in Mitchell and McDowell counties, specifically closer to the SW corner of Mitchel near Spruce Pine. Any ideas why? 

I noticed that. It's an interesting little feature and will be fascinating to see if it's legit. 

[Met1985]

21 minutes ago, Ja643y said:

Asked this in the other thread, but probably better suited here. Noticed that a lot of models have a sort of enhanced area of snowfall in Mitchell and McDowell counties, specifically closer to the SW corner of Mitchel near Spruce Pine. Any ideas why? 

I'd say because of the mountain range there and the trajectory of the moisture that is an enhanced flow coming from the SW moisture. 

[Met1985]

Gfs took a more positive approach this evening for the mountains here.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I'd say because of the mountain range there and the trajectory of the moisture that is an enhanced flow coming from the SW moisture. 

Yea, I would say upsloping over the Black Mountains would be the plausible answer.

[franklin NCwx]

8 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Gfs took a more positive approach this evening for the mountains here.

Definitely upped qpf totals!

[Met1985]

What a crap show this evening.  Weenies pissed and out for blood. 

[buckeyefan1]

I'll take this any day of the week

[franklin NCwx]

The only mixing issues I see Is maybe a brief hr or two of some sleet mixing in with heavy snow on the American models. 

[buckeyefan1]

This too 

 

[NavarreDon]

Evening all! Been busy all day but wanted to say a couple things from afar. Try not to be guilty of model hugging. Use historical data as well. There a so many variables in a system like this one. Even Mets are unsure what will happen. Personally using the above I think the storm will meet or exceed expectations for the most part in the Mnts. Enjoy the next 36 hours as much as you can because the chase is what we all live for. Good luck to all of you!!!


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[gopack42]

6 hours ago, Met1985 said:

This was up near Wolf Laurel.  Was absolutely amazing up there yesterday at sunset.  Yeah I'd be down for exploring that area.  Winter hiking is amazing especially in the snow.

Let me know if you're ever up this way.  I'd love to meet you and others on here.  

[Met1985]

14 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I'll take this any day of the week

Yeah especially for down that way. Looking good. 

[Met1985]

10 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Evening all! Been busy all day but wanted to say a couple things from afar. Try not to be guilty of model hugging. Use historical data as well. There a so many variables in a system like this one. Even Mets are unsure what will happen. Personally using the above I think the storm will meet or exceed expectations for the most part in the Mnts. Enjoy the next 36 hours as much as you can because the chase is what we all live for. Good luck to all of you!!!


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Thank you Don! You are missed up here for sure.