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2024-2025 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread


Buckethead
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This is were we take a stand! This is the place we call home! This is the place that gets snow! Take no prisoners! We have the EPS and weeklies leading the charge! The GEFS is caving! We are fixing to get a good thump of snow along the border! Hold steadfast my friends! This is our season in the mountains! 

A bit of humor this morning kind of...

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2 hours ago, nchighcountrywx said:

Thoughts?

I have concerns about the null phase in January 

 

IMG_0094.png

My experience suggests not to fully trust those longer range MJO charts. As of recently, there has been too much volatility. Remember just last week they were suggesting a high amplitude Phase 7. My hunch is the pattern is nearing a reshuffle. Remember that we were to be 'torching' all the way to Christmas. That idea has collapsed with 10 to 15 degrees below normal arriving this weekend into at least Tuesday, possibly a day or two longer.

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WSW's are up on the other side of the border as well.




URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
509 PM EST Thu Dec 19 2024

NCZ048>052-200600-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0010.241220T1800Z-241221T1800Z/
Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-
Including the cities of Faust
509 PM EST Thu Dec 19 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow expected above 3500 feet. Total snow accumulations up
to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Haywood, Madison, Mitchell, Swain, and Yancey Counties
above 3500 feet along the Tennessee border.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...The snowfall will create slippery and snow covered
roadways. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk



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6 hours ago, nchighcountrywx said:

Thoughts?

I have concerns about the null phase in January 

 

IMG_0094.png

This is from a recent post from Eric Webb.

"Also, the destructive interference between the MJO & ENSO (which might cause RMM to enter the “null” phase or “circle of death”) will actually favor a colder pattern over the Eastern US in early to mid January here by reducing the amount of convective heating & +U that’s being fluxed into the pacific jet, favoring some pacific jet retraction." 

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Graupel in Maggie now. Temperature dropped 10° in 15 minutes. Now 38° and falling.

Edit to add, I encourage folks to download the mPing app. It was developed by Oklahoma University and NASA to provide a platform for the public to submit reports live. Those reports are monitored by our National Weather Service real time and the reports show up quickly on the app. It's great to see those reports and is informative to see what's going on around us!

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