NorthHillsWx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Precursor rain event is not ideal. 3-6+ before the storm gets there for some of the mountain areas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Precursor rain event is not ideal. 3-6+ before the storm gets there for some of the mountain areas I have noticed this for the last day or 2. The Canadian shows something even more drastic with the PRE and hurricane combo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Massive convective blob going up and sustaining near the LLC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 UK is west of 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Evident on radar out of the Caymans that the recent deep convective bursting is rotating upshear and a noticeable tighter vortmax is now organizing. TCG appears imminent. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 7 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Evident on radar out of the Caymans that the recent deep convective bursting is rotating upshear and a noticeable tighter vortmax is now organizing. TCG appears imminent. Agreed. I think we may finally see a TD or more likely a TS evolve. Now big question is how long before RI starts? If it starts sooner given conditions ahead could definitely overachieve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 9 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Evident on radar out of the Caymans that the recent deep convective bursting is rotating upshear and a noticeable tighter vortmax is now organizing. TCG appears imminent. Indeed that is the meso that makes this Helene. And with what hurricane John has done I am going extremely high for intensity. Cat 4 still just north of Tampa is my call 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Another bonkers HAFS-B run in progress, grain of salt of course. That wind field and onshore flow with the 0z GFS would be suboptimal for the coastal counties of TB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 This is the best PTC9 has looked so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 0Z Euro a bit delayed in landfalling on the US vs earlier runs with 985 mb midnight Thu night Big Bend. Still 987 Athens Fri AM meaning hardly any weakening due to moving an avg of 25 mph! ———————— 0Z UKMET: Apalachicola late Thu night then to Atlanta area in only ~12 hours due to moving on average ~25 mph!TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 81.8WATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092024LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 24.09.2024 0 18.1N 81.8W 1003 321200UTC 24.09.2024 12 19.7N 83.9W 1003 360000UTC 25.09.2024 24 19.8N 85.6W 999 361200UTC 25.09.2024 36 21.3N 86.4W 995 410000UTC 26.09.2024 48 22.9N 86.5W 992 391200UTC 26.09.2024 60 24.8N 86.1W 991 430000UTC 27.09.2024 72 28.1N 85.5W 988 521200UTC 27.09.2024 84 31.9N 84.8W 989 370000UTC 28.09.2024 96 37.0N 85.8W 994 241200UTC 28.09.2024 108 40.2N 90.4W 1000 250000UTC 29.09.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 I don't see much organization tonight. A blast of sw shear is preventing mid-level and surface alignment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 I wonder if the current board nature of the system will stop it from organizing too quickly. Also until the shear actually drops over the system its not doing to get going. Radar looks less impressive than a few hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 1 hour ago, dan11295 said: I wonder if the current board nature of the system will stop it from organizing too quickly. Also until the shear actually drops over the system its not doing to get going. Radar looks less impressive than a few hours ago. ULL has yet to retrograde. Until it does PTC9 will be slow to develop. The EURO seems to have a good handle on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 The latest hurricane models are still bombing this thing over the loop current. What I don't understand is why these models continue to try to strengthen it so much today. I get that there is a disconnect when the system does not yet have a well-organized center, but why do these models seemingly not see the current shear? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 55 minutes ago, Seminole said: ULL has yet to retrograde. Until it does PTC9 will be slow to develop. The EURO seems to have a good handle on this. I wonder if ultimately all this delay does is act to pushback any ERC until near landfall, if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The latest hurricane models are still bombing this thing over the loop current. What I don't understand is why these models continue to try to strengthen it so much today. I get that there is a disconnect when the system does not yet have a well-organized center, but why do these models seemingly not see the current shear? Perhaps a reminder not to put too much weight on models prior to the storm becoming a proper tropical storm. Even then strength predictions can be quite tricky. I would ignore most models for now until this is TS Helene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Shear is still impacting this. The oblong shape on satellite is a dead giveaway. The euro seems to show this as it seems like it wants to have an eye open to the SW along its entire journey. Hence the weaker pressure. It will go over explosive fuel, but I’m not sure how shear will try to counteract that. It is important to note that some models are predicting RI. Haven’t had a chance to look at SHIPS guidance, but the 700-500RH and RI statistics are good pieces to look at on SHIPS. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Shear is still impacting this. The oblong shape on satellite is a dead giveaway. The euro seems to show this as it seems like it wants to have an eye open to the SW along its entire journey. Hence the weaker pressure. It will go over explosive fuel, but I’m not sure how shear will try to counteract that. It is important to note that some models are predicting RI. Haven’t had a chance to look at SHIPS guidance, but the 700-500RH and RI statistics are good pieces to look at on SHIPS. I love using 700-500RH....often reveals subtle red flags in guidance that are not always reflected well im raw intensity output....kind of a akin to clown maps dropping a 20" snowgasm only to notice razor thin warm layers and/or drier air at 700-800mb. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Shear is still impacting this. The oblong shape on satellite is a dead giveaway. The euro seems to show this as it seems like it wants to have an eye open to the SW along its entire journey. Hence the weaker pressure. It will go over explosive fuel, but I’m not sure how shear will try to counteract that. It is important to note that some models are predicting RI. Haven’t had a chance to look at SHIPS guidance, but the 700-500RH and RI statistics are good pieces to look at on SHIPS. The NHC track looks exactly like the Euro too. I have found in recent years NHC focuses more as far as track on the Euro as well as the HWRF/HMON. Those other spaghetti models just seem more often to be ignored now by them or considered less. It’s clear they’re not buying the N-NNW movement after landfall, at least not til the system is weaker hours later. That NNW movement idea to me only would work if this comes in as a weak mess. If it’s a strong 2 or higher it’s going to move E of N for awhile after landfall despite any upper low to the west 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 I actually think it looks a whole lot better overall. It’s developed banding on the eastern side and on satellite it looks like the thunderstorms have consolidated into a singular mass vs popcorn storms. “Center” is west of main convection but otherwise this looks closer to a TS than last night. Westerly shear is clearly a factor at this stage. So far, Euro seems to be handling development the best. I am not sure early development matters as much. The best conditions this system encounters will be north of Cuba as it parallels the Florida coast. I’d look for a tight COC and a well formed CDO if RI is to happen. Actual strength leaving the carribean will not matter much on the overall ceiling this system has given the POTENTIAL for RI. I’m more concerned with the structure and shear from the upper level system to the west 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 The 06z Euro actually moves the center over the northeast tip of the Yucatan, where it only slowly moves for about 12 hours. Also, while the hurricane models insist on bombing it out over the eastern gulf, the Euro barely strengthens it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The 06z Euro actually moves the center over the northeast tip of the Yucatan, where it only slowly moves for about 12 hours. I was just noticing that...about 25% of the ensembles do, as well...a few GEFS members do, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: They love love LLLOOVVVEEE the concensus model thingy and always mention it in there discussions. Definitely have noticed that but so often seems the track is some combo of the Euro/GFS/HWRF 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 So what's the most a tropical system has strengthened in 60 hours? I know when (if?) the shear fades it will be a great environment, but at some point the clock becomes a factor, right? Looks like hurricane hunters can't find anything under 1000 mb yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 2 minutes ago, beanskip said: So what's the most a tropical system has strengthened in 60 hours? I know when (if?) the shear fades it will be a great environment, but at some point the clock becomes a factor, right? Looks like hurricane hunters can't find anything under 1000 mb yet. Wilma I think was fastest it was a TS to a 5 in like 22 hours or something close to that. There’s been many that have gone TS to a 3 or 4 relatively fast as well 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Supposed to be going to a concert at the Amphitheater in Tampa Thursday night, was worried but looking like we should be in the clear outside of some outer bands so it might get a little wet. I know it’s a storm so things can always change but it seems the models haven’t budged for a couple days now and are almost locked in agreement. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 1 minute ago, beanskip said: So what's the most a tropical system has strengthened in 60 hours? I know when (if?) the shear fades it will be a great environment, but at some point the clock becomes a factor, right? Looks like hurricane hunters can't find anything under 1000 mb yet. I think there is about a 12 hour window for potential RI during the day on Thursday, after the core is well established and its over the loop current before some drier air begins getting entrained the final few hours prior to LF....probably from about 00z Thursday and onward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 IR still looks a bit disorganized, but some banding is showing up on Cayman radar under the northern convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 The visible loop shows the surface circulation is becoming better defined. The center is right on the west edge of the convection. The recon extrap pressure is now creeping under 1000 mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 24 Author Share Posted September 24 Much like in the Gulf, shear vector and storm motion matter a lot in how much shear a TC actually encounters. It looks like a shift in shear direction has now given this the space to organize. Just look at visible satellite from yesterday vs now. Tail Doppler shows that the LLC and MLC are pretty well aligned. That likely means the organizational trend (not necessarily intensity, yet) is poised to pick up the pace—if alignment holds. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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