Major Hurricane Helene

[Wannabehippie]

33 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Hurricane John's presence near the coast of Mexico and on the western periphery of the CAG has most likely contributed to pending TCG of 97L occurring further east away from Nicaragua/Honduras and tracking through the Yucatán channel. The models picked up on this yesterday, resolving further east solutions. PTC09 might even clip western Cuba now, though it should be noted that there will still be a day or two of NW to NNW motion as 500 mb heights pivot east of Florida. Had John not existed, the cutoff over the Yucatán would most likely have retrograded west faster without upper mass being evacuated off of John; as such, steering would have been more dictated by the surface-to-mid level flow around the gyre to keep 97L's broad vorticity over land longer and more in line with the initial weaker solutions late last week and over the weekend. As always, it's why we have to consider modeling can change quite abruptly even within a few days due to downstream changes/evolutions in steering influences and features.

I was just about to ask about the effects of Hurricane John, especially since it is predicted to become a cat 3 hurricane before landfall.

[Radtechwxman]

I'm not trusting any model intensity until we have a developed LLC and this system starts organizing. Models are struggling with intensity because the system hasn't got established yet so they're essentially grasping at straws that don't exist. 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Radtechwxman said:

I'm not trusting any model intensity until we have a developed LLC and this system starts organizing. Models are struggling with intensity because the system has got established yet so they're essentially grasping at straws that don't exist. 

The track on the hurricane models too IMO is not likely after landfall.  I think the NNE or NE movement after landfall is more likely, especially if this is a 3 or 4.  A hurricane that strong more often can be somewhat deflected by a feature such as the low over the WRN gulf states vs absorbed in.    

[Radtechwxman]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The track on the hurricane models too IMO is not likely after landfall.  I think the NNE or NE movement after landfall is more likely, especially if this is a 3 or 4.  A hurricane that strong more often can be somewhat deflected by a feature such as the low over the WRN gulf states vs absorbed in.    

Yeah I'm really curious if we will see that cutoff and Helene Fujiwara with each other or if Helene will just deflect ne with little to no interaction. 

[TPAwx]

HAFS-B at 39 is slightly NW of 12z and 37mb weaker.  Lunchtime run was clearly out to lunch.

[Hotair]

Putting aside exact track and strength considerations, it is alarming that many forecast models are suggesting 10+ feet of storm surge possible just North of Tampa 

Coastal risk live link

[SnowGoose69]

A cool 100mb difference from the 12Z HAFS-B lol

[hawkeye_wx]

All of the hurricane models are much weaker at 18z because it takes a lot longer to organize.  The HAFS-B is 90 mb weaker at 12z Thursday (888 mb to 978).

The southerly shear in the nw Caribbean isn't going to help it organize.

[TPAwx]

HMON and HAFS-A also markedly weaker.

[SnowGoose69]

All of them seem closer to the Yucatan too.  A further NW track is not good overall as it might enable it to both stay over the Gulf longer and also hit the area of warmer waters 

[Amped]

10 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

HAFS-B at 39 is slightly NW of 12z and 37mb weaker.  Lunchtime run was clearly out to lunch.

 A lot of uncertainty here, the ceiling is high here, but so is the potential for organizational issue.

Also I'm not buying the tracks that go inland over the Yucatan yet.

[Random Chaos]

Until a well defined center of circulation forms (generally when it becomes a Tropical Storm) we won’t get accurate models. The variation in the HAFS-B from 12z to 18z is exactly what to expect until then.

[Radtechwxman]

50 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

All of the hurricane models are much weaker at 18z because it takes a lot longer to organize.  The HAFS-B is 90 mb weaker at 12z Thursday (888 mb to 978).

The southerly shear in the nw Caribbean isn't going to help it organize.

888mb was just unrealistic. All the hurricane models were way overdone imo. Probably a more realistic portrayal. But like I said before, can't really trust any intensity guidance right now. Need our system to really develop first. 

[Boston Bulldog]

Giving any serious consideration to Hurricane models before a center of circulation has formed is totally foolish. HAFS at 12z had this thing already vertically stacked by this time

[Radtechwxman]

Real good spin within that area of convection south of Cuba. Curious if that's only a mid level circulation or if we ate getting a low level circulation developing within that area as well. 

[WxWatcher007]

12 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Real good spin within that area of convection south of Cuba. Curious if that's only a mid level circulation or if we ate getting a low level circulation developing within that area as well. 

It may be trying to get to the surface but I think it’s going to be hard to get a read without recon, and it may take a while given the southwesterly shear. 

Cayman Islands radar could be helpful tonight as the process takes its first shot at it. 

https://www.weather.gov.ky/radar

[NavarreDon]

https://x.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1838341891659829451?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA


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[qg_omega]

This thread is out of control with buns

[MattPetrulli]

https://x.com/MarkMeyerWx/status/1838381014676091068

[shaggy]

25 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Real good spin within that area of convection south of Cuba. Curious if that's only a mid level circulation or if we ate getting a low level circulation developing within that area as well. 

Sure seems that's the best area of vorticity. It's young and still susceptible to center reformation. If this forms further east towards the cayman Islands we could see some model changes

[StantonParkHoya]

0z hurricane models really tight from Apalachicola to Atlanta

[Radtechwxman]

11 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Sure seems that's the best area of vorticity. It's young and still susceptible to center reformation. If this forms further east towards the cayman Islands we could see some model changes

My thoughts as well. Obviously a lot can change with motion as the mid/low level centers organize and try to align but right now this would be more east and is moving pretty nnw

[CheeselandSkies]

9 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

0z hurricane models really tight from Apalachicola to Atlanta

Eh? Those aren't even out yet on Tidbits.

[StantonParkHoya]

Just now, CheeselandSkies said:

Eh? Those aren't even out yet on Tidbits.

[CheeselandSkies]

You said the "hurricane models" which I took to mean the frame-by-frame sim IR, MSLP, etc products from the HWRF, HAFS A/B, etc. Usually takes a couple hours after the run initialization time for those to even start showing up.

[ineedsnow]

12 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

0z hurricane models really tight from Apalachicola to Atlanta

center looks to be reforming east of those.. recon will be there in a few hours.. I think Tampa Bay is in trouble..

[Seminole]

24 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Sure seems that's the best area of vorticity. It's young and still susceptible to center reformation. If this forms further east towards the cayman Islands we could see some model changes

Would likely mean less time over the GOM loop current which would reduce intensity some. Tampa still needs to be paying attention.  

[dbullsfan]

This seems insanely tightly clustered this far out.


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[AccuChris]

Looks like a hot tower is trying to fire near the low level center area. See how this all evolves over the next 12 hours or so

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/meso_band.php?sat=G16&sat=G16&lat=17N&lon=81W&band=13&length=30


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[StantonParkHoya]

Outside of Beryl, every other storm has struggled this year. Let’s hope that trend continues.