Major Hurricane Helene

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Normandy said:

excellent posts by everyone.  I personally believe that the high winds inland were caused by the interaction with the upper level low.  Beryl had a similar setup and had similar effects, however beryl was a cat 1 while Helene was a cat 4.  Additionally Helene was just much more of a monstrous storm, but would love to hear more thoughts on why the winds traveled so well inland

Mainly because Helene was moving at near record speed for this area, 30 mph! That along with its big size, which slows down weakening, and that it was still strengthening almost until landfall near guaranteed it would be very strong far inland though I was sorry to see it happen.

 Still no power here (longest outage since Matthew of 2016) but can easily handle as it pales in comparison to what the folks in the FL Big Bend, in/near Alma (GA), Valdosta, Augusta, and especially the W Carolinas have gone/are going through. Prayers to all who have been badly affected.

 Hoping this is it for anything significant in the SE US this season. Enough is enough!

 

[GaWx]

When comparing to the pre-Helene low SLP records of all time for any month and from any kind of system (see below), it looks like new all-time record low SLPs have likely been established by Helene in/near the corridor from the FL Big Bend through the GA cities of Valdosta, Warner Robbins, Macon, Milledgeville, and Athens. Helen, GA, probably just missed its record. The prior records were Idalia of 2023 (1049 mb) in the FL Big Bend and mainly from the 3/13/1993 “Storm of the Century” for the listed GA cities.

Record low SLPs (pre-Helene)(map will change once Helene is incorporated):

 

Dates of record low SLPs (pre-Helene): (3/13/1993 in green) (map will change once Helene is incorporated):

[Jebman]

There are sure a lot of people crying for help. Helene cut off many a community from help.

You guys are perfectly free to wish for Category 5 hurricanes.

But me, I am DONE with this stuff. I'm 60. I am getting seriously challenged from obsessing over walking most of my life. Walking is fine, but to idolize this like I did for 50 years, there are consequences. Serious consequences. My mom yells at me for being too slow. I see now my Dad was right, all those years. I always learn, THE HARD WAY, every time, in everything.

My heart BREAKS with deep sorrow as so many people are cut off. Many will be, for MONTHS to come, well into 2025!!!!!!!!

There may even be ANOTHER storm. We are going to be lucky just to survive to early December. There are probably going to be so many severe hurricanes that the entire Gulf Coast will have to be evacuated. Buda, Texas can't take another bad windstorm, we'd lose everything.

 

[dan11295]

I-40 Damage in NC

Here is a short aerial video with just once example of the type of infrastructure damage that has occurred. That is a long section of highway that is going to have to be re-built before it is re-opened to full capacity.

 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

This is still a massive power outage event

[Bubbler86]

Florida state paying to build a temp road on Anna Maria Island so residents can get back to their houses and get their belongs.  Will take 3-5 days.   Going to be hard to save many first-floor homes unless that drywall gets cut out asap and drying started. 

[Wannabehippie]

When an entire town is gone, another is completely cut off, record flooding. It is going to be hard to save homes like this. FEMA will be spending a lot of time and money on helping people out. Water is still in some homes, they can't even cut the dry wall yet.

3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Florida state paying to build a temp road on Anna Maria Island so residents can get back to their houses and get their belongs.  Will take 3-5 days.   Going to be hard to save many first-floor homes unless that drywall gets cut out asap and drying started. 

 

[LithiaWx]

14 hours ago, GaWx said:

When comparing to the pre-Helene low SLP records of all time for any month and from any kind of system (see below), it looks like new all-time record low SLPs have likely been established by Helene in/near the corridor from the FL Big Bend through the GA cities of Valdosta, Warner Robbins, Macon, Milledgeville, and Athens. Helen, GA, probably just missed its record. The prior records were Idalia of 2023 (1049 mb) in the FL Big Bend and mainly from the 3/13/1993 “Storm of the Century” for the listed GA cities.

Record low SLPs (pre-Helene)(map will change once Helene is incorporated):

 

Dates of record low SLPs (pre-Helene): (3/13/1993 in green) (map will change once Helene is incorporated):

ended up just sub 980 imby from Helene.  Pretty remarkable being on the west side of Atlanta.

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

ended up just sub 980 imby from Helene.  Pretty remarkable being on the west side of Atlanta.

 That appears to be a new record low for your area per the map. Based on the map, much of ATL area’s low was from 1/25/1978 (in blue). The map shows KATL’s record to be 981.4 mb from that. Their lowest hourly from Helene was 983.7 (29.08”) at 6AM. So, it appears KATL just missed the record as I don’t think it got much lower between hourlies since the center was well east of there.

[WxWatcher007]

There’s a strong signal that CV season was delayed but not quite denied. 90L and/or the wave behind it could become quite strong. 

[GaWx]

49 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

There’s a strong signal that CV season was delayed but not quite denied. 90L and/or the wave behind it could become quite strong. 

 Good news is that this late in the season it would be unprecedented in the records for anything becoming a TS E of 50W in the MDR to make it to the CONUS. The latest for that is 9/25 (in 1893). But these could be big ACE producers. Kudos to the Euro Weeklies going back several weeks seeing this big increase in ACE for late Sep through 1st 1/2 of Oct!

 So, hopefully any TCGs out in the MDR occur E of 50W.

 The CONUS is not safe though as the next one progged to form in the Caribbean/Gulf is a concern. Hoping it won’t be strong or better yet never be a TC. But the 12Z GEFS is fairly bullish for something forming late week unfortunately. And the 12Z EPS is rather bullish for this a few days later.

[Windspeed]

 Good news is that this late in the season it would be unprecedented in the records for anything becoming a TS E of 50W in the MDR to make it to the CONUS. The latest for that is 9/25 (in 1893). But these could be big ACE producers. Kudos to the Euro Weeklies going back several weeks seeing this big increase in ACE for late Sep through 1st 1/2 of Oct!
 So, hopefully any TCGs out in the MDR occur E of 50W.
 The CONUS is not safe though as the next one progged to form in the Caribbean/Gulf is a concern. Hoping it won’t be strong or better yet never be a TC. But the 12Z GEFS is fairly bullish for something forming late week unfortunately. And the 12Z EPS is rather bullish for this a few days later.

RE: Big ACE producers, wiith background mean SSTs still quite above normal across the MDR, we could see some late records fall. I believe Lorenzo holds the record for furthest east Category 4 or greater after September 28th. But you would think it would be very rare for an MDR system to reach the CONUS with ridging giving way to a more typical Fall pattern / October troughs over the central Atlantic. The only one I can think of in recent decades is Matthew.

[Roger Smith]

Did Randy ever post about his experience in GA? I guess the worst of it went east of where he was (if he went)? 

[wthrmn654]

quite impressive how many have been restored already! last i recall here more then maybe 4million total out, down to 2 something now.

Region	Outages
South East	2,156,987
Mid-Atlantic	191,715
Great Lakes	65,860
South	54,635
Pacific	9,773
MidWest	1,443
Mountain	1,196
New England	469
Territories	22
Total Out:	2,482,100

 

South East States

State	Outages
South Carolina	838,173
Georgia	637,044
North Carolina	505,595
Florida	175,598
Alabama	577

[wthrmn654]

1000 people un accounted for sadly! praying thats lack of communication 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Good news is that this late in the season it would be unprecedented in the records for anything becoming a TS E of 50W in the MDR to make it to the CONUS. The latest for that is 9/25 (in 1893). But these could be big ACE producers. Kudos to the Euro Weeklies going back several weeks seeing this big increase in ACE for late Sep through 1st 1/2 of Oct!

 So, hopefully any TCGs out in the MDR occur E of 50W.

 The CONUS is not safe though as the next one progged to form in the Caribbean/Gulf is a concern. Hoping it won’t be strong or better yet never be a TC. But the 12Z GEFS is fairly bullish for something forming late week unfortunately. And the 12Z EPS is rather bullish for this a few days later.

Oops, I posted in the wrong thread. Agree though that any CVs are highly unlikely to be impactful here. 

[WxWatcher007]

Some of the analysis is truly remarkable 

 

[Floydbuster]

UNREAL Damage. 

 

https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1840500261712007614

 

https://x.com/LeadingReport/status/1840498476880183777

 

https://x.com/wsbtv/status/1840515679100842008

 

https://x.com/BrianEntin/status/1840403872084341056

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Good news is that this late in the season it would be unprecedented in the records for anything becoming a TS E of 50W in the MDR to make it to the CONUS. The latest for that is 9/25 (in 1893). But these could be big ACE producers. Kudos to the Euro Weeklies going back several weeks seeing this big increase in ACE for late Sep through 1st 1/2 of Oct!
 So, hopefully any TCGs out in the MDR occur E of 50W.
 The CONUS is not safe though as the next one progged to form in the Caribbean/Gulf is a concern. Hoping it won’t be strong or better yet never be a TC. But the 12Z GEFS is fairly bullish for something forming late week unfortunately. And the 12Z EPS is rather bullish for this a few days later.

RE: Big ACE producers, wiith background mean SSTs still quite above normal across the MDR, we could see some late records fall. I believe Lorenzo holds the record for furthest east Category 4 or greater after September 28th. But you would think it would be very rare for an MDR system to reach the CONUS with ridging giving way to a more typical Fall pattern / October troughs over the central Atlantic. The only one I can think of in recent decades is Matthew.

 Yeah, but Matthew didn’t become a TS until almost to 60W. There are several others that formed after 9/25 between 50 and 60W and that hit CONUS. So, hopefully any remaining MDR TCs form E of there and then recurve safely. 
 

-Hazel (1954) formed at 58W on Oct 5

-1898: formed at 58W on 9/25

[RU848789]

3 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

UNREAL Damage. 

 

https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1840500261712007614

 

https://x.com/LeadingReport/status/1840498476880183777

 

https://x.com/wsbtv/status/1840515679100842008

 

https://x.com/BrianEntin/status/1840403872084341056

Congrats on politicizing this tragic situation.  

[NorthHillsWx]

Sadly the death toll continues its rapid ascent. Nearly 100 confirmed dead. That will surely continue to grow as first responders reach some of the isolated and cut off mountain communities in NC

[Floydbuster]

I am assuming that the highest maximum sustained winds were likely in a very tiny area in the very northeastern side of the eyewall at the immediate coast. My guess is 130 to 140 mph over the wetlands between Steinhatchee and Perry.

[Windspeed]

I am assuming that the highest maximum sustained winds were likely in a very tiny area in the very northeastern side of the eyewall at the immediate coast. My guess is 130 to 140 mph over the wetlands between Steinhatchee and Perry.

Would have been the SE quadrant based on storm motion, most likely the ESE inner edge of eyewall band, when it had its most intense echoes while intersecting the shoreline. This flow coming off the north side of Deadman Bay. This would have been just NW of Steinhatchee within the Big Bend Wildlife Management Area. Nobody was there to record or document it, of course, unless they were recording on the back end route, Beach Road. At least that we yet know about.

[Windspeed]

Helene broke many September pressure records for the SE region:



https://twitter.com/DRmetwatch/status/1840475902737846729?t=x0t-G1ommyEyZ4OwvoAw3w&s=19

[Floydbuster]

4 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Would have been the SE quadrant based on storm motion, most likely the ESE inner edge of eyewall band, when it had its most intense echoes while intersecting the shoreline. This flow coming off the north side of Deadman Bay. This would have been just NW of Steinhatchee within the Big Bend Wildlife Management Area. Nobody was there to record or document it, of course, unless they were recording on the back end route, Beach Road. At least that we yet know about.

 

Yeah, I suppose southeastern rather than northeastern. One thing clearly obvious from recon just before landfall was how lopsided the intensity was. The eastern side had Category 4 sustained winds, while the western side had extremely low weak winds in comparison. 

[NorthHillsWx]

5 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

 

Yeah, I suppose southeastern rather than northeastern. One thing clearly obvious from recon just before landfall was how lopsided the intensity was. The eastern side had Category 4 sustained winds, while the western side had extremely low weak winds in comparison. 

Definitely a weird storm to be so powerful on one side and really just a half-a-cane. Don’t see a lot of 120kt half storms but they do happen, and forward motion likely assisted this one. Only thing that kind of surprised me was the northern and northeastern eyewall being relatively tame on the ground. Both looked extremely strong on recon. I’m guessing max winds occurred between Keaton beach and Steinhatchee.

In other sad news, looks like Helene will pass Hurricane Floyd’s death toll in NC

[eyewall]

6 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

 

Yeah, I suppose southeastern rather than northeastern. One thing clearly obvious from recon just before landfall was how lopsided the intensity was. The eastern side had Category 4 sustained winds, while the western side had extremely low weak winds in comparison. 

Yep the fast forward motion enhanced this effect. The 1938 hurricane is a classic example of this for the Northeast.

[Picard]

This is North Carolina's Katrina.  The extent of the damage and human tragedy isn't immediately apparent in the hours after, but in the days and weeks after.  Sad situation that is only getting worse.

[jm1220]

33 minutes ago, Picard said:

This is North Carolina's Katrina.  The extent of the damage and human tragedy isn't immediately apparent in the hours after, but in the days and weeks after.  Sad situation that is only getting worse.

Having a city of 100K cut off from the outside world and devastated makes that the case for sure, not to mention the other towns/cities impacted all throughout the region. My heart goes out to all those people and their families. It’ll be a very long and difficult road ahead. 

[andyhb]

WRAL reporting 35 dead in Buncombe Co. alone.