Major Hurricane Helene

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

HAFS B goes sub 900mb FWIW. It would be the first atlantic basin storm to do that since Wilma.

Peak at 160kts. 

[hawkeye_wx]

All of the very-intense hurricane models have this system well-organized and deepening to 990 mb by 12z Tuesday.  I'd say that is pretty unlikely.

[batmanbrad]

Dr. Cowan just posted one of his excellent video discussions on the tropical tidbits site, highly recommended.  Said he would have another one tomorrow.

[wncsnow]

Euro also showing the predecessor rain event. This is all before the system makes landfall

[Rtd208]

For those in Florida please don't forget to follow your Hurricane Evacuation Plan. Stay safe.

[beanskip]

Pretty nice shift east with the 12z Euro. Probably one of many track changes, but this one hits the incredibly-maligned Taylor County area yet again. 

[Rtd208]

12z Euro

[accountingdawg2012]

15 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Pretty nice shift east with the 12z Euro. Probably one of many track changes, but this one hits the incredibly-maligned Taylor County area yet again. 

That's about the best-case scenario isn't it for a direct population strike with a big chunk of Taylor being the Big Bend wildlife refuge, right?

[beanskip]

3 minutes ago, accountingdawg2012 said:

That's about the best-case scenario isn't it for a direct population strike with a big chunk of Taylor being the Big Bend wildlife refuge, right?

Except for the heart-breaking reality that the few people who live there have been crushed in just the last couple years.

But yes, in the biggest of big pictures, if you could pick a place on the Florida coast for a hurricane to hit, that area or perhaps south of Naples would be it.

[olafminesaw]

5 minutes ago, accountingdawg2012 said:

That's about the best-case scenario isn't it for a direct population strike with a big chunk of Taylor being the Big Bend wildlife refuge, right?

In theory yes, but at this stage shifts to the right increase the chance for surge to be a significant threat for Eastern Florida. A landfall even as far north as Cedar key would be really bad for the Tampa area.

[Seminole]

47 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Pretty nice shift east with the 12z Euro. Probably one of many track changes, but this one hits the incredibly-maligned Taylor County area yet again. 

Taylor County just cannot catch a break. 

[Prospero]

I've lived in Gulfport, FL for 16 years and have never seen a storm surge prediction of over 9 feet here before. That would create a real problem in the Tampa Bay area.

[beanskip]

Good to see the hurricane hunter not finding pressures under 1007 so far. 

[beanskip]

17 minutes ago, Prospero said:

I've lived in Gulfport, FL for 16 years and have never seen a storm surge prediction of over 9 feet here before. That would create a real problem in the Tampa Bay area.

Imagine what more of a direct hit would look like. Sheesh. 

[TPAwx]

23 minutes ago, Prospero said:

I've lived in Gulfport, FL for 16 years and have never seen a storm surge prediction of over 9 feet here before. That would create a real problem in the Tampa Bay area.

Pretty sure it’s a potential scenario and not a forecast yet.  But yes problematic.  Would be a total loss for me.

[purduewx80]

26 minutes ago, Prospero said:

I've lived in Gulfport, FL for 16 years and have never seen a storm surge prediction of over 9 feet here before. That would create a real problem in the Tampa Bay area.

This is the reasonable worst case scenario. Note the asterisked fine print at the bottom. 

[USCG RS]

2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

This is the reasonable worst case scenario. Note the asterisked fine print at the bottom. 

Part of this is to let Emergency Management know what to prepare for. Ie, reasonable scenario to prepare for, even if this does not come to fruition. 

[Prospero]

6 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Part of this is to let Emergency Management know what to prepare for. Ie, reasonable scenario to prepare for, even if this does not come to fruition. 

Maybe it is a new way they are doing it. We not even seen a Greater than 6 feet prediction before since I have been here.

[Hotair]

17 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Maybe it is a new way they are doing it. We not even seen a Greater than 6 feet prediction before since I have been here.

Im Supposed to have dinner at Pia’s this Friday.  I better call ahead! LoL

Storm Surge would also depend on time of arrival as high and low tides here can mean a lot.  Not to mention we have seen some tremendous flooding in Tampa recently from just persistent rain showers,  

[Amped]

1 hour ago, beanskip said:

Good to see the hurricane hunter not finding pressures under 1007 so far. 

The GFS and the Hurricane models were all initialized way too strong. The Hurricane models were also initialized way too far NW.

[WxWatcher007]

54 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

This is the reasonable worst case scenario. Note the asterisked fine print at the bottom. 

Thanks for reminding people, and not that anything I say matters, but for folks reading—this could be a high impact event, and we have not just posters but probably a lot of lurkers that will be reading this.

Not that anyone should be making decisions based on what’s said here lol (always follow official sources, etc) but for people posting I just ask that we set aside any wish casting, down playing, or non-contextualized posts (for example, posting an image of a hurricane model without analysis) as this comes together. Obviously stuff happens but let’s try to stay on track. 

There’s an opportunity to learn a lot here the next few days about tropical genesis, the development of inner core structures, and how TCs interact with troughing/deep layer shear, and that discussion gets lost in poor posts. 

tl;dr I sound like a prude lol but let’s be responsible and thoughtful in our posts as people will likely be seriously impacted by this one.

[monadnocks]

Well said @WxWatcher007 This board’s impact will be spread to: not just the lurkers but their friends or coworkers who know that someone is interested in weather and might have more information. 
 

 

[Amped]

Icon hits Tampa, Jacksonville and the GA/SC coast pretty hard. Even if it's just a Cat2 with a large wind field that could cause a lot more damage than a Cat4 tracking over Apalachee Bay.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Thanks for reminding people, and not that anything I say matters, but for folks reading—this could be a high impact event, and we have not just posters but probably a lot of lurkers that will be reading this.

Not that anyone should be making decisions based on what’s said here lol (always follow official sources, etc) but for people posting I just ask that we set aside any wish casting, down playing, or non-contextualized posts (for example, posting an image of a hurricane model without analysis) as this comes together. Obviously stuff happens but let’s try to stay on track. 

There’s an opportunity to learn a lot here the next few days about tropical genesis, the development of inner core structures, and how TCs interact with troughing/deep layer shear, and that discussion gets lost in poor posts. 

tl;dr I sound like a prude lol but let’s be responsible and thoughtful in our posts as people will likely be seriously impacted by this one.

Well said.  I'm telling the mods to start clamping down in here pretty soon.   Good luck everybody.

[Windspeed]

Hurricane John's presence near the coast of Mexico and on the western periphery of the CAG has most likely contributed to pending TCG of 97L occurring further east away from Nicaragua/Honduras and tracking through the Yucatán channel. The models picked up on this yesterday, resolving further east solutions. PTC09 might even clip western Cuba now, though it should be noted that there will still be a day or two of NW to NNW motion as 500 mb heights pivot east of Florida. Had John not existed, the cutoff over the Yucatán would most likely have retrograded west faster without upper mass being evacuated off of John; as such, steering would have been more dictated by the surface-to-mid level flow around the gyre to keep 97L's broad vorticity over land longer and more in line with the initial weaker solutions late last week and over the weekend. As always, it's why we have to consider modeling can change quite abruptly even within a few days due to downstream changes/evolutions in steering influences and features.

[BoulderWX]

Good write up from Cantore

[hawkeye_wx]

The three recon passes found extrap pressure of 1008, 1006, and 1005 mb, so it's slowly dropping as the circulation develops.

[MANDA]

3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Hurricane John's presence near the coast of Mexico and on the western periphery of the CAG has most likely contributed to TCG of 97L occurring further east away from Nicaragua/Honduras and tracking through the Yucatán channel. The models picked up on this yesterday, resolving further east solutions. PTC09 might even clip western Cuba now, though it should be noted that there will see be a day or two of NW to NNW motion as 500 mb heights pivot east of Florida. Had John not existed, the cutoff over the Yucatán would most likely have retrograded west faster without upper mass being evacuated off of John; as such, steering being more dictated by the surface-to-mid level flow around the gyre to keeping 97L's broad vorticity over land longer and more in line with the initial weaker solutions late last week and over the weekend. As always, it's why we always have to consider modeling can change quite abruptly even within a few days due to downstream changes/evolutions in steering influences and features.

That ULL also helped to classically ventilate "John" allowing it to strengthen.  Likely a major at landfall over the next 6 hours or so.

The same ULL is currently generating shear over at least the western semicircle of TC9.  It is going to have to get out of the way before PTC9 can start to crank.

[StantonParkHoya]

18z GFS weaker and sw of 12z

[purduewx80]

Should have a good view from the Cayman Islands radar the next day or so, and then Cuba's after that.

https://www.weather.gov.ky/radar