Major Hurricane Helene

[Rjay]

21 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Cantore just said between Steinhatchee and Fish Creek, which is due south of Perry.  We'll see soon...

We're talking about a few miles for the center point.  

[WxSynopsisDavid]

The peak winds went east of those who were streaming. Reason why we don’t see confirmation of the 140mph winds in any of the video we have seen. 

[ScottB]

I'll second not looking anything like 120/130 mph winds anywhere out of Perry. Watched several streams and looked relatively tame compared to what I was expecting. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Looks like Tallahassee is getting some prodigious rainfall in those bands.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, skillsweather said:

Not going to lie me either didn't want to be the first to say that though. I was watching reed's stream whole event went from no wind to 50-80mph gust at times to possibly up to 100mph gust recently with the eye wall but besides that pretty tame for a 140mph sustained storm it might of went a little east of their area.

That town Salem looked to be getting smoked.

[RU848789]

11 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Hurricane Helene Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HURRICANE HELENE VERY CLOSE TO MAKING LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND...
...ACCOMPANIED BY A CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND LIFE-THREATENING
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 83.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

29.9N 83.9W is just a few miles SW of the Big Bend Wildlife Mgmt area, which is SW of Perry...

[CTWeatherFreak]

Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said:

The peak winds went east of those who were streaming. Reason why we don’t see confirmation of the 140mph winds in any of the video we have seen. 

I would have thought the northern eyewall would have contained the best winds, but weve seen video out of there and while impressive, definitely not close to 140 mph.

[SnowGoose69]

There are many mesonet stations in the Suwanee Springs area...we may get higher wind confirmation there when eye wall goes though

[Eskimo Joe]

Tallahassee should escape the eyewall.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

There are many mesonet stations in the Suwanee Springs area...we may get higher wind confirmation there when eye wall goes though

Got a link?

[hazwoper]

2 minutes ago, skillsweather said:

Not going to lie me either didn't want to be the first to say that though. I was watching reed's stream whole event went from no wind to 50-80mph gust at times to possibly up to 100mph gust recently with the eye wall but besides that pretty tame for a 140mph sustained storm it might of went a little east of their area.

Perry is 15 miles inland.  Much worse directly on the coast I am sure.  Tons of trees between coast and Perry for friction 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Got a link?

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=FL&rawsflag=3

[gallopinggertie]

Extreme wind warning just added for a few counties in southern Georgia, including Valdosta.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not bad...had that spot pegged on Tuesday First Call...will do the full post mortem tomorrow night.

It was obvious most guidance was erroneously west, as was NHC.

 

[Snowacane]

2 minutes ago, ScottB said:

I'll second not looking anything like 120/130 mph winds anywhere out of Perry. Watched several streams and looked relatively tame compared to what I was expecting. 

They were all in the same spot

[SnowGoose69]

FPY 86kts

[SnowGoose69]

FPY is an AWOS so odds are something higher than 86kts did happen but no PKWND algorithm is on those systems

[RU848789]

Landfall...

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024
1120 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE MAKES LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...

Based on NWS Doppler radar data, the eye of Helene has made landfall 
as a Category 4 hurricane in the Florida Big Bend region at about 
11:10 PM EDT (0310 UTC) just east of the mouth of the Aucilla 
River.  This is about 10 miles (15 km) west-southwest of Perry, 
Florida.  Based on data from Air Force reconnaissance aircraft, the 
maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 140 mph (225 km/h) and 
the minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


SUMMARY OF 1110 PM EDT...0310 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 83.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

[Radtechwxman]

Videos definitely seem tame for a 140 cat 4 storm. But like people said could be issue of chasers not being where best winds were. Not many locations to safely intercept down there. Something I did notice though on satellite is that cloud tops warmed a lot in ne quadrant at landfall but stayed very cold in western eyewall. Wonder if better winds will end up being west which is atypical. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Radtechwxman said:

Videos definitely seem tame for a 140 cat 4 storm. But like people said could be issue of chasers not being where best winds were. Not many locations to safely intercept down there. Something I did notice though on satellite is that cloud tops warmed a lot in ne quadrant at landfall but stayed very cold in western eyewall. Wonder if better winds will end up being west which is atypical. 

Wonder if anyone was in St. Marks area, or got out if it's a surge zone? Seems like that area was exploding with lightning just before coming ashore. 

[eduggs]

We go through this every time with landfalling hurricanes... Where's my 140 mph winds!!?? Due to friction with the ground surface, surface wind speeds are significantly lower over land than over water. So unless someone is literally right on a wind-exposed beach, which is not advisable in a surge scenario, it is very unlikely to record a peak wind speed anywhere close to what would be observed on the open ocean.

[NeonPeon]

Just as with the radar attenuation claims, I also can't remember a storm where people were satisfied with wind verification.

This thing plowed into about the perfect place it could have in terms of population density. The real damage becomes evident later on, a slowly unfolding, less glamorous disaster, inland. Lots and lots of rain.

[hazwoper]

Just now, eduggs said:

We go through this every time with landfalling hurricanes... Where's my 140 mph winds!!?? Due to friction with the ground surface, surface wind speeds are significantly lower over land than over water. So unless someone is literally right on a wind-exposed beach, which is not advisable in a surge scenario, it is very unlikely to record a peak wind speed anywhere close to what would be observed on the open ocean.

Again……THIS^

[lee59]

Perry in the eye. They had sustained of 55 and gust to 99

[eduggs]

17 minutes ago, ScottB said:

I'll second not looking anything like 120/130 mph winds anywhere out of Perry. Watched several streams and looked relatively tame compared to what I was expecting. 

Perry is way inland. Little chance of major hurricane sustained winds there.

[Chinook]

55mph gusting 99mph

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Perry is way inland. Little chance of major hurricane sustained winds there.

Airport is south of town. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

We go through this every time with landfalling hurricanes... Where's my 140 mph winds!!?? Due to friction with the ground surface, surface wind speeds are significantly lower over land than over water. So unless someone is literally right on a wind-exposed beach, which is not advisable in a surge scenario, it is very unlikely to record a peak wind speed anywhere close to what would be observed on the open ocean.

Yea, but I bet they will find some absolutely vicious, tornado like tree damage down where only the alligators reside.

[Radtechwxman]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

We go through this every time with landfalling hurricanes... Where's my 140 mph winds!!?? Due to friction with the ground surface, surface wind speeds are significantly lower over land than over water. So unless someone is literally right on a wind-exposed beach, which is not advisable in a surge scenario, it is very unlikely to record a peak wind speed anywhere close to what would be observed on the open ocean.

Not what we're saying at all. Not expecting 140mph winds at all. But one would expect sustained winds near or over 100mph with some gusts of 120+. Perry gusted to 99mph. I would have thought sustained winds would be closer to that. Just seems underwhelming. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, NeonPeon said:

Just as with the radar attenuation claims, I also can't remember a storm where people were satisfied with wind verification.

This thing plowed into about the perfect place it could have in terms of population density. The real damage becomes evident later on, a slowly unfolding, less glamorous disaster, inland. Lots and lots of rain.

The main story people talk about years later from this might be all the inland flood damage. The wind damage stories likely come from places like Valdosta and any other more major city inland. It's definitely very fortunate this is the best place in FL this could have come ashore. Doesn't do any good for Steinhatchee or other small towns directly in the worst surge, and places further south into Tampa Bay will also probably get some bad water damage. But yeah, a track 100 miles further SE would've been catastrophic.