Major Hurricane Helene

[1234snow]

Decent spin just west of Jamaica. I’m assuming just the MLC is there or does it appear that a LLC is forming in that area?

[Amped]

6z hurricane models are pretty intense. Some have it a major before entering the Gulf. 

[Amped]

1 minute ago, 1234snow said:

Decent spin just west of Jamaica. I’m assuming just the MLC is there or does it appear that a LLC is forming in that area?

The modeled track kind of shows it taking an eastward jog out to near Jamaica  then turning back wnw into the Yucatan channel.

[WxWatcher007]

PTC Nine will be designated at 11am.

[hawkeye_wx]

The weak center of surface spin is currently located ssw of Grand Cayman, northwest of the convection.

[Normandy]

It seems as if the soon to be intense hurricane John (start paying attention now to the EPaC thread that thing is cranking) is pushing genesis for future Helene further east.  Interested to see morning model runs but I’m starting to like a just north of tampa solution

[wncsnow]

5 minutes ago, Normandy said:

It seems as if the soon to be intense hurricane John (start paying attention now to the EPaC thread that thing is cranking) is pushing genesis for future Helene further east.  Interested to see morning model runs but I’m starting to like a just north of tampa solution

That would be a substantial shift east of any current model output. The upper trough is going to influence the track more than anything in the EPAC. 

[GaWx]

Recon is on the way. Where any possible low level center is found will be very important to say the least.

[DeltaPilot]

Looking at Satellite this am sure seems the convection is displaced quite a bit east and slightly south of the current center being depicted. Will be interesting to see what Recon finds.

[accountingdawg2012]

We are going to have to stop booking trips to Orlando in September.  This will be year 2 of 2 (we had Idalia last year that came through right before we were scheduled to leave.  We were supposed to leave for Orlando on Friday but bumped it up to Thursday to avoid most of the storm but the current modeling may not make that very favorable.

Plan was to go down I-95 instead of 75 based on the current track and cut into Orlando via I-4.  Does this seem viable or do we need to just be prepared to scrap this trip all together? Thought was to leave home around 5AM and be in Orlando 12PM.

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, accountingdawg2012 said:

We are going to have to stop booking trips to Orlando in September.  This will be year 2 of 2 (we had Idalia last year that came through right before we were scheduled to leave.  We were supposed to leave for Orlando on Friday but bumped it up to Thursday to avoid most of the storm but the current modeling may not make that very favorable.

Plan was to go down I-95 instead of 75 based on the current track and cut into Orlando via I-4.  Does this seem viable or do we need to just be prepared to scrap this trip all together? Thought was to leave home around 5AM and be in Orlando 12PM.

I'm supposed to in Florida on Thursday, flying down that evening.  Destin, FL 

[accountingdawg2012]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'm supposed to in Florida on Thursday, flying down that evening.  Destin, FL 

Yeah we are supposed to be taking the kids to Disney.  I'm not concerned about being there with any effects from storm bands at the hotel since Disney does a pretty good job in securing their facilities.  I'm more concerned about getting there.  I think the I-75 route is absolutely a no-go but right now I-95 seems doable if we leave early enough.  I am glad we live in driving distance and don't have to fly though because a flight though that would be absolutely not fun.

[TPAwx]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm supposed to in Florida on Thursday, flying down that evening.  Destin, FL 

All these northern tourists cluttering up the storm discussion. 

[GaWx]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF MEXICO AND CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 82.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Tulum, and a
Hurricane Watch from Cabo Catoche to Tulum.

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Isle of Youth, Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and a Hurricane Watch
for Pinar del Rio.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of 
Youth 

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 
the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near 
latitude 17.6 North, longitude 82.0 West. The system is moving 
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northwestward motion is 
expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster 
northward or north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. 
On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move 
across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf 
of Mexico during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system
is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue
strengthening as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

[GaWx]

Already forecasting 110 mph!

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While
some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images,
surface observations and visible satellite images suggest the
low-level circulation remains broad and farther to the southwest.
Nonetheless, the system has a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next day or two, and it is likely to bring
tropical storm conditions to land areas within the next 36 to 
48 hours. Therefore, the NHC is initiating Potential Tropical 
Cyclone advisories for this disturbance.

The initial motion is quite uncertain given the current lack of 
organization, but the best estimate is northward at about 5 kt. A 
gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next day or 
so, with the center passing through the Yucatan Channel and into the 
southern Gulf of Mexico. Thereafter, the system is forecast to 
accelerate northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico within the 
flow between a digging deep-layer trough over the central United 
States and a ridge over the western Atlantic. This motion should 
bring the center of the system toward the northeastern Gulf Coast on 
Thursday. The track guidance agrees reasonably well on this 
scenario, and the initial NHC forecast lies near the simple and 
corrected consensus aids. Since the disturbance currently lacks a 
well-defined center, users are reminded that the average forecast 
track uncertainty is larger in these situations, and future track 
adjustments may be required. Given the large size of the 
tropical-storm-force wind field and fast forward speed that is 
forecast, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend 
well away from the center, particularly to the east of the system.

While the system is currently broad and not well organized, the 
models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during the 
next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and 
develops an inner core, the environmental and oceanic conditions 
appear favorable for significant strengthening. In fact, the DTOPS 
statistical guidance shows a 95 percent chance of a 65-kt increase 
in intensity during the next 72 h, and the hurricane regional models 
highlight the potential for strengthening to major hurricane 
intensity. Thus, the NHC forecast shows significant strengthening 
while the system moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with a 
95-kt intensity in 72 h. While this forecast is aggressive, it lies 
near or slightly below the consensus aids, and future adjustments 
may be necessary.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 17.6N  82.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  24/0000Z 18.6N  82.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  24/1200Z 19.5N  83.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 20.6N  85.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 22.1N  86.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  26/0000Z 24.2N  86.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 27.1N  85.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 34.0N  83.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
120H  28/1200Z 38.5N  87.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[schoeppeya]

Some pretty obvious westerly lower level flow on visible satellite. Looks like maybe centered under the convection at 80w 17N?

[monadnocks]

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm supposed to in Florida on Thursday, flying down that evening.  Destin, FL 

My partner is supposed to fly out of Tallahassee on Friday morning.  Work related travel so not too much choice about when to leave. ☹️

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Some pretty obvious westerly lower level flow on visible satellite. Looks like maybe centered under the convection at 80w 17N?

They initialized it at 17.6N, 82.0W, which is well to the WNW of that. We’ll see what recon finds this afternoon. This from the just released NHC discussion is probably relevant:

“While
some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images,
surface observations and visible satellite images suggest the
low-level circulation remains broad and farther to the southwest.”

[stormtracker]

23 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

All these northern tourists cluttering up the storm discussion. 

Hey, trust me, I don't wanna go!

[TPAwx]

12z GFS is slightly weaker and NW of 6z,  not very significant differences at this stage
 

Landfall Thursday evening in Big Bend.

[wncsnow]

GFS is pretty much the worse scenario for the southern Apps and Blue Ridge for significant flash flooding, only saving grace is how quickly it moves/dissipates . I'm also looking at some signs of a predecessor rain event somewhere in GA, TN, NC or Alabama. Models are hinting at this too. 

[cardinalland]

2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

What happened to 8L? Looking at one of the sites I use,  Gordon was 07L

a potential tropical cyclone that never formed

[cardinalland]

2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Lol OK so if I understand it correctly cyclones have a # and ptcs have numbers 

So if say the ptc is #5 if it becomes a cyclone and it's say the 6th one of the season it would be 06L (name)

 

Gotcha

PTC 9 will become Helena 09L, PTC 8 never became a tropical storm so 08L is unused this year for tropical storms… hope that clears things up!

[cardinalland]

It’s interesting how many hurricanes have targeted CONUS, despite this year’s failure to meet expectations. If Helena makes landfall at hurricane strength, 2024 will have 4 CONUS landfalling storms. The only years since 1950 to see 4+ CONUS landfalling storms were 1964, 1985, 2004, 2005 and 2020.

[Seminole]

23 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

12z GFS is slightly weaker and NW of 6z,  not very significant differences at this stage
 

Landfall Thursday evening in Big Bend.

ULL a little more west than 6Z run which accounts for the shift NW. 

[GaWx]

12z UKMET: similar to 0Z with landfall just E of Apalachicola ~midnight Thu night moving NNE into S GA then curls back NNW into N GA near or just S of Atlanta

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L        ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N  82.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972024

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 23.09.2024    0  16.7N  82.2W     1006            25
    0000UTC 24.09.2024   12  18.6N  82.2W     1004            33
    1200UTC 24.09.2024   24  18.6N  84.6W     1003            34
    0000UTC 25.09.2024   36  19.1N  84.6W     1000            38
    1200UTC 25.09.2024   48  20.6N  85.1W      997            46
    0000UTC 26.09.2024   60  22.8N  85.4W      992            46
    1200UTC 26.09.2024   72  25.3N  85.5W      988            48
    0000UTC 27.09.2024   84  28.5N  85.0W      984            53
    1200UTC 27.09.2024   96  33.2N  83.9W      988            36
    0000UTC 28.09.2024  108  38.1N  85.2W      996            33
    1200UTC 28.09.2024  120  39.1N  91.0W      999            26
    0000UTC 29.09.2024  132  39.0N  92.2W     1003            13
    1200UTC 29.09.2024  144              CEASED TRACKING

[wthrmn654]

The 00z gfs and euro ensembles have done pretty good with the short term track direction compared some of the other models. 

[schoeppeya]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

They initialized it at 17.6N, 82.0W, which is well to the WNW of that. We’ll see what recon finds this afternoon. This from the just released NHC discussion is probably relevant:

“While
some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images,
surface observations and visible satellite images suggest the
low-level circulation remains broad and farther to the southwest.”

It does look like that swirl they initailized on is getting pulled back towards the convection

[Amped]

HAFS B goes sub 900mb FWIW. It would be the first atlantic basin storm to do that since Wilma.

[hawkeye_wx]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

HAFS B goes sub 900mb FWIW. It would be the first atlantic basin storm to do that since Wilma.

Yeah, this isn't something we see every day.  It's likely wildly overdone, but it's neat to look at.