Major Hurricane Helene

[andyhb]

Extreme wind warning issued for the landfall location and northward to the GA border.

[BoulderWX]

13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Stay safe man!! Looks like you’ll get the eye wall or very close to it. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

[Floydbuster]

Wow over 5 feet of water over Clearwater Beach so far.

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, beanskip said:

 

So given that Helene is now east of 84N, is this less-than-a-day-old run considered good verification? 

Is asking why the NHC deferred so strongly away from the globals and toward the spaghetti models still a dumb question?

I don't really understand the question. The spaghetti models are not wholly separate from the global models. The global models are here on these plots...they're just adjusted for the current position of the hurricane in time.  

These are the models the nhc has used for years. The same ones. 

[WxWatcher007]

Things have picked up quickly 

[Damage In Tolland]

150 seems likely at LF

[WxWatcher007]

 

[TowsonWeather]

5 minutes ago, beanskip said:

 

So given that Helene is now east of 84N, is this less-than-a-day-old run considered good verification? 

Is asking why the NHC deferred so strongly away from the globals and toward the spaghetti models still a dumb question?

We ALL get it at this point. You have a major bee in your bonnet about the forecast. It's been politely explained to you over and over but you still keep stomping your feet about it. If you insist on continuing to squeal about this, take it to banter and stop clogging up the storm thread, FFS.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

150 seems likely at LF

Absolutely agree, 150-155 at LF.

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

150 seems likely at LF

Unfortunately. 

The friction of land actually looks to be assisting with with helping this gets its final act together. 

[OSUmetstud]

Helene is not east of 84 w anyway. It's latest position is 84.2. 

[Hotair]

[Amped]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

150 seems likely at LF

It's  got less than 2 hrs left. I think it pretty much holds.

[LithiaWx]

weird that on radar worst appears on the north and northwest side but most winds on the east side. 

[bdgwx]

3 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Wow over 5 feet of water over Clearwater Beach so far.

Yeah, that's...huh...concerning. If it is that bad down there then we may be about to see some eyebrow raising surges further north.

[Snowacane]

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

It's  got less than 2 hrs left. I think it pretty much holds.

The lightning in the eye wall would like to differ. At 8 and 9k seeing winds of 145kts

[CoastalWx]

Tremendous amount of ltg in eyewall.

[csnavywx]

N/NW eyewall seems especially vicious. Clear overshooting tops on IR and lots of scalloping on reflectivity and on velocity products. Intense convection.

[andyhb]

Just now, csnavywx said:

N/NW eyewall seems especially vicious. Clear overshooting tops on IR and lots of scalloping on reflectivity and on velocity products. Intense convection.

Tops to over 60k feet.

[DDweatherman]

@WxWatcher007hang in there. This one is going to be a wild ride. Maybe you can get us some footage like the 2004 Charley gas station video. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Gangbusters 

[csnavywx]

1 minute ago, andyhb said:

The electrification of the eyewall right now is just about off the charts.

I have >100 strikes a minute (426 strikes in last 3 min, 317 in 3-5m bin).

[SnowGoose69]

Select all networks, even decent gusts from the NNW by Apalachicola

 

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=FL&rawsflag=3

[Random Chaos]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tremendous amount of ltg in eyewall.

Here's a screengrab of the lightening - insane:

 

 

[USCG RS]

Just now, csnavywx said:

I have >100 strikes a minute (426 strikes in last 3 min, 317 in 3-5m bin).

That energy/Latent Heat release is.. wow. 

[csnavywx]

Still spiking, 500+ strikes in last 3m.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

@WxWatcher007hang in there. This one is going to be a wild ride. Maybe you can get us some footage like the 2004 Charley gas station video. 

I’m good. We’re just getting started. 

[jm1220]

Gonna be a very close call in Tallahassee, storm is heading due N now it looks like and the NW eyewall should come close. For those places in the Big Bend about to be in the NE eyewall and the massive surge, well I just hope everyone there is out. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

Still spiking, 500+ strikes in last 3m.

Wow