Major Hurricane Helene

[Chinook]

radar now picking up 130 knots in the clouds

[Master of Disaster]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

I would call what happened last night a pseudo ERC. The eyeball started as nascent than made its way through the stages and in doing so there was the reorganization of the core & CDO. Not the true ERC’s we see with more developed, substantial canes.

Fair statement. A half assed ERC.

[MattPetrulli]

1 minute ago, Chinook said:

radar now picking up 130 knots in the clouds

What METAR placefile are you using? 

[csnavywx]

33 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I wonder if that outer rain band to the southwest of the center is slowly becoming the new eyewall.

It's basically out of time here, but if this were still well out over water, then this is the kind of setup that could eventually result in an EWRC. The series of mesovort formations and mergers we've been getting usually precedes cocentric band formation -- so you could argue we're getting ready to enter the incipient phase of one.

[Master of Disaster]

Just now, csnavywx said:

It's basically out of time here, but if this were still well out over water, then this is the kind of setup that could eventually result in an EWRC. The series of mesovort formations and mergers we've been getting usually precedes cocentric band formation -- so you could argue we're getting ready to enter the incipient phase of one.

What's nice is satellite technology has advanced to the point we can observe the entire sequence. 

[Chinook]

1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

What METAR placefile are you using? 

these

http://placefiles.redteamwx.com/buoyobs.php

http://placefiles.redteamwx.com/loop_fullobs.php

(for those who don't know, these have to be pasted into the correct entry field in GRLevel2/GRLevel3 program)

[NeffsvilleWx]

Flight into ATL was surprisingly smooth. Thought for sure there’d be significant turbulence

[MarkO]

941.8

edit 940.2

[dseagull]

NOAA got a 941.8 reading, and now looping again.  Wonder 8f it's broken again.  940.2 from TEAL. 

[Amped]

Pretty steady now. Radar seems to show a wobble to the west the last few frames, puts it back on course to go straight over Perry.

[Doc Jon]

Hey, is that 940.2 reading legit?

[Random Chaos]

Impressive winds in the eyewall:

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Radtechwxman]

Anyone got a VDM from hurricane hunters currently? 

[dseagull]

Should find out shortly.   They just reported 160mph flight level winds. They are sampling again.  Communication between their reports and NOAA seemed confusing. 

[Amped]

2 minutes ago, Doc Jon said:

Hey, is that 940.2 reading legit?

Does it really matter if it's 941.8 or 940.2?   It's just noise.

[Floydbuster]

 

[Chinook]

Ryan Hall stream said that the Hurricane Hunters kind of got stuck in the eye earlier (not sure if this is old news, but I haven't heard of such a thing.)

[andyhb]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Does it really matter if it's 941.8 or 940.2?   It's just noise.

I mean a difference of 1.6 mb when it comes to strengthening is notable.

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

1 minute ago, Chinook said:

Ryan Hall stream said that the Hurricane Hunters kind of got stuck in the eye earlier (not sure if this is old news, but I haven't heard of such a thing.)

I believe it happened once before where they had to fly around in the eye and wait for another mission to look over the aircraft on a flyby because of mechanical issues. 

[Random Chaos]

Look at the velocity "waves" on the western portion of the eyewall. Don't remember seeing that in previous hurricanes:

 

 

[Doc Jon]

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

Does it really matter if it's 941.8 or 940.2?   It's just noise.

Depends on how close to Perry, Florida you are I guess...

[wthrmn654]

4 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Anyone got a VDM from hurricane hunters currently? 

Not sure what your looking for exactly but I found this recon site that gives far more stuff I do believe

https://cyclonicwx.com/recon/mission/HELENE_NOAA2_1709A/

[wthrmn654]

3 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Ryan Hall stream said that the Hurricane Hunters kind of got stuck in the eye earlier (not sure if this is old news, but I haven't heard of such a thing.)

If something truly had happened I'm sure we'll hear about it in the coming days. I think they were doing rapid tracking. 

[Cincy12]

1 minute ago, Chinook said:

Ryan Hall stream said that the Hurricane Hunters kind of got stuck in the eye earlier (not sure if this is old news, but I haven't heard of such a thing

1 minute ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

I believe it happened once before where they had to fly around in the eye and wait for another mission to look over the aircraft on a flyby because of mechanical issues. 

Most certainly intentional. 

[ineedsnow]

up to 140mph now

[CoastalWx]

Yep 140 now

[dseagull]

140 it is upon condensing. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Little wobbles are going to be a big deal for some of these more populous areas. That eyewall means business 

[beanskip]

11 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

12z early cycle models

 

 

So given that Helene is now east of 84N, is this less-than-a-day-old run considered good verification? 

Is asking why the NHC deferred so strongly away from the globals and toward the spaghetti models still a dumb question?