Major Hurricane Helene

[AccuChris]

943mb just recorded about 10 mins ago on recons last pass through the eye


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[wthrmn654]

Give them credit for being so determined to find the center

 

[Radtechwxman]

Although satellite continues to look impressive, seems like southern eyewall is struggling a bit on radar. Shear and dry air may be impacting it. But I think intensity will maintain till landfall or maybe increase a bit more. 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, jdt said:

I assume that is at the Airport which is south of town. Asheville general has lower totals then surrounding areas do to mountains shadowing from multiple directions. We bought property to build on in the future about an hour south of there very close the the SC line and Blue Ridge Escarpment. Totals there can usually be double to triple that of Asheville. Saw a CoCoRaHS report posted earlier today of ~12” near Connesstee Falls which is about 10 minutes from our property.


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Yes, that's at the Airport. I saw the 12.29" figure for Conesstee Falls as of late this morning.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[purduewx80]

5 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Give them credit for being so determined to find the center

This is a NOAA plane, so unless there's mechanical issues, I would guess they're collecting important RI data.

[wthrmn654]

6 loops later at 8 thousand feet and there still sampling the eye...

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

This is a NOAA plane, so unless there's mechanical issues, I would guess they're collecting important RI data.

Yeah with teal enroute and being the low pressure sample earlier, I'd guess the same thing. 

 

But I really hope it's not mechanical

[AccuChris]

New pass shows pressure down to 942mb just after 7PM


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[Chinook]

new buoy measurement in the eyewall

[wthrmn654]

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...28.3N 84.4W

ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA

ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

 

$$

Forecaster Bucci

[gallopinggertie]

13 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

If you mean how does it stack up against other cyclones...Katrina was 127 TJ and Wilma was 17 TJ according to this calculator. Helene is basically top tier.

Just 17 for Wilma?

[Prospero]

Structure Fire on a block downtown Gulfport that the fire department cannot get to due to storm surge. On no!

https://mygulfport.us/pc/

[purduewx80]

you weenies broke tropicaltidbits 

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

you weenies broke tropicaltidbits 

I like this site better

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023010612&fh=6&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=

[gymengineer]

Dropsonde suggests 942 mb.

[Master of Disaster]

13 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

943mb just recorded about 10 mins ago on recons last pass through the eye


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943 is the intensity of a Cat 5 hurricane in 1971. 

[bdgwx]

A dropsonde got 944 mb with a 23 kt wind about 20 minutes ago. I'm guessing that's good for 942'ish mb.

[NorthHillsWx]

Probably 140 mph at this point

[wthrmn654]

Buoy must of taken a bit but still alive! 

 

 

[Master of Disaster]

New pressure 942.5mb

[wthrmn654]

Well there up to about 12 loops so one of these numbers must be the center...

 

[Kmlwx]

I wonder if they are going to do rapid center fixes until the Air Force plane gets there. 

[bdgwx]

8 minutes ago, gallopinggertie said:

Just 17 for Wilma?

Wilma was small. Helene is big. IKE is a better predictor of storm surge. Helene is going to wreak some havoc in the surge department.

[wthrmn654]

Teals already started sampling. 

[schoeppeya]

Should get an extra boost from frictional convergence here pretty soon

[purduewx80]

on the mesovortices observed in radar:

[Eskimo Joe]

The embedding isn't working, but apparently some rando is flying their private jet into the eye of Helene and core punching it. The plane definitely isn't associated with any NOAA or Hurricane Hunters mission according to the registration data.

https://x.com/ou_sams/status/1839438191641919744

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

Wow

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The embedding isn't working, but apparently some rando is flying their private jet into the eye of Helene and core punching it. The plane definitely isn't associated with any NOAA or Hurricane Hunters mission according to the registration data.

https://x.com/ou_sams/status/1839438191641919744

 

If he avoids convection at 45K he'll likely be ok. But dumb move imo.