Major Hurricane Helene

[wthrmn654]

17 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

It is the worst case scenario except for missing big population centers with the worst of it.

Not much help to the people who are in its path, of course, and there are still many.

I'm afraid there could be many lives lost,  and many trees lost.  The timber industry,  farmers are going be hurt badly. There's nothing good about this situation at this point. 

[WxWatcher007]

With things starting to pick up here, I will no longer be updating wind and pressure in the title of the thread. As is usually the case, I have support from folks that can let y’all know I’m ok in the likely event I lose signal.

For this trip I’ve been conferring with @MillvilleWx & @ORH_wxman. Will update as I can of course. 

Pressure down to 994.6mb here. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

With things starting to pick up here, I will no longer be updating wind and pressure in the title of the thread. As is usually the case, I have support from folks that can let y’all know I’m ok in the likely event I lose signal.

For this trip I’ve been conferring with @MillvilleWx & @ORH_wxman. Will update as I can of course. 

Pressure down to 994.6mb here. 

Stay safe down there, need you for the winter tracking! 
 

She’s a monster now coming in, you’ll get all you bargained for it you’re holding steady in Perry. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

A friend of mine is on a spit of land near Clearwater called Dunedin Beach and he said it’s getting pretty intense.

They are four stories up in a sturdy building and I’m sure they will be fine but this is when you start questioning if you should have stayed or not. 

[wthrmn654]

We may of lost the buoy...

[Wannabehippie]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

A friend of mine is on a spit of land near Clearwater called Dunedin Beach and he said it’s getting pretty intense.

They are four stories up in a sturdy building and I’m sure they will be fine but this is when you start questioning if you should have stayed or not. 

They probably should have left. But too late now to do so.

 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Stay safe down there, need you for the winter tracking! 
 

She’s a monster now coming in, you’ll get all you bargained for it you’re holding steady in Perry. 

All but certain to stay here. In a strong building and so far the heading looks solid. Even if the eye is a touch west, we’ll likely be in the RFQ. 

Fully expecting a Laura like event now, which is saying a lot. 

[mob1]

If colder cloud tops wrap around the southern part of the eye, we are probably looking at pressure readings in the 930s

[Master of Disaster]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

We may of lost the buoy...

That does happen. I use to set those in the Coast Guard. They snap their chain mooring. I have pulled them off the beach and everything.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

All but certain to stay here. In a strong building and so far the heading looks solid. Even if the eye is a touch west, we’ll likely be in the RFQ. 

Fully expecting a Laura like event now, which is saying a lot. 

The eye keeps tightening on radar as it comes in, that RFQ is going to be insane coupled with the upper levels to help mix down big gusts + a quick forward speed. What did you gust to in Laura?

I’d expect you get a few 120-130mph gusts there in Perry. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, BlueSkyGA said:

 I know most of you consider AccuWeather forecast to be trash. I checked the hourly forecast for Macon, Ga, where my niece lives, and it has gust reaching 60 or so in the am. When i check my location in Elberton,Ga, it has gust of 70-80 mph at times in the early am. I dont see how this can be?

Macon is gonna be close.  They’re quite a bit east of Atlanta but I wouldn’t be surprised at this stage if the system even went east of them.  Athens and Augusta could be in for a world of hurt though  

[DDweatherman]

Just now, TPAwx said:

Just chatting with the fam about how lucky we were with this one.  A few thuds on the roof so prob some damage, and waiting to see what the surge does later.

I’m thinking the areas down near bayshore Blvd and of course Gulfport and the beaches are going to have one of their more notable surge events.

naples had their biggest surge event in Ian, and the center passed just a bit closer by them and to the NW. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Macon is gonna be close.  They’re quite a bit east of Atlanta but I wouldn’t be surprised at this stage if the system even went east of them.  Athens and Augusta could be in for a world of hurt though  

It’ll all come down to the vector once it crosses land. With how intense it’s getting, I’d lean NNE vs N or any tick W of due N. VLD might be ground zero. 

[Interstate]

13 minutes ago, hlcater said:

This is extremely important and worrying for surge. Massive hurricane force wind field combined with coastal geometry could easily yield 20+ft surge in spots. 

I understand the surge is going to be bad. But isn’t the speed a double edge sword.  I mean it will not be prolonged winds and the winds should switch fairly quickly 

[wthrmn654]

Waves are still updating It appears,  nearing 25 feet! 

[Prospero]

11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

A friend of mine is on a spit of land near Clearwater called Dunedin Beach and he said it’s getting pretty intense.

They are four stories up in a sturdy building and I’m sure they will be fine but this is when you start questioning if you should have stayed or not. 

This will be remembered for a long time. I have concern for everybody in a storm surge vulnerable location. I'm at 15 feet in Gulfport and getting a little concerned even this high.

https://clearwaterbeachcams.com/

We are in for a very nasty surprise tonight in Pinellas County.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

The eye keeps tightening on radar as it comes in, that RFQ is going to be insane coupled with the upper levels to help mix down big gusts + a quick forward speed. What did you gust to in Laura?

I’d expect you get a few 120-130mph gusts there in Perry. 

Whatever Lake Charles got, we got lol. I ended up in the NE eyewall for hours. It was unreal. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

The east side of this storm is going to be catastrophic for a lot of people. Unbelievable intensification we are seeing 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Whatever Lake Charles got, we got lol. I ended up in the NE eyewall for hours. It was unreal. 

Insane chase there, Laura did not play games. Who knew they had hurricanes in Iowa? 

[wthrmn654]

Looks brutal in the Gulf! 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bdgwx said:

Based on the 5pm update Helene's IKE is near 100 TJ.

Is there a source for this All time?

[CCHurricane]

[wthrmn654]

Just updated satellite estimate, let's see how it matches up with next recon pass.

 

Current Analysis ----- 

     Date : 26 SEP 2024 Time : 221020 UTC

      Lat : 27:54:35 N Lon : 84:18:00 W

 

     

                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax

                6.3 / 929.2mb/122.2kt

 

     

             Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 

                6.3 6.3 6.9

 

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

 

 Center Temp : +0.7C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C

 

 Scene Type : EYE

[bdgwx]

The P-Surge model is showing the possibility of a massive surge up the Suwannee River and into Fanning Springs, FL. That's almost 25 miles inland.

[clskinsfan]

32 minutes ago, George001 said:

Chances of category 5 at landfall?

None

[TPAwx]

Some of the stiffest gusts of the day.  Now the surge will really start to crank in and build towards early AM high tide. Should hit top end of the 5-8 forecast. 

[wthrmn654]

Teal heading to storm, noaa doing loop de loops around the "center" looking at plane tracker.  Must of missed center. 

[bdgwx]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Is there a source for this All time?

If you mean how does it stack up against other cyclones...Katrina was 127 TJ and Wilma was 17 TJ according to this calculator. Helene is basically top tier.

[wxeyeNH]

943.6mb.  Dropping very fast

[wthrmn654]

Lmao sorry can't help but laugh at this path,  943 lowest plane recorded.