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Major Hurricane Helene


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1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Note to add that once this gets into that part of Georgia and VLD northward, we start getting into some pretty densely populated areas (Warner Robbins, Macon, Albany, Athens) 

Anything like that needs to be east of center 

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6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

My God, look at far east those crazy winds extend, not sure how much of that mixes down to  surface but I hope people run for there lives if they haven't yet! 

And to note, that is the buoy by the center, looks like it will go just east of it!

image.thumb.png.840f85a342cfe198fc3806187b59cd27.png

This is extremely important and worrying for surge. Massive hurricane force wind field combined with coastal geometry could easily yield 20+ft surge in spots. 

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7 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

My God, look at far east those crazy winds extend, not sure how much of that mixes down to  surface but I hope people run for there lives if they haven't yet! 

And to note, that is the buoy by the center, looks like it will go just east of it!

image.thumb.png.840f85a342cfe198fc3806187b59cd27.png

This looks bad for Tampa bay even without the eye being very close. 

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Just now, TheDreamTraveler said:

Basically the worst case scenario is unfolding and we still have a few more hours to go.

It is the worst case scenario except for missing big population centers with the worst of it.

Not much help to the people who are in its path, of course, and there are still many.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Anything like that needs to be east of center 

100%, question will be where does it go after LF which is our biggest question. We pretty much know VLD will be near the eastern eyewall, but will see straighten up and move more due N or hold that NNE heading. 
 

huge implications for the 75 corridor depending on that outcome. 

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17 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

It is the worst case scenario except for missing big population centers with the worst of it.

Not much help to the people who are in its path, of course, and there are still many.

I'm afraid there could be many lives lost,  and many trees lost.  The timber industry,  farmers are going be hurt badly. There's nothing good about this situation at this point. 

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With things starting to pick up here, I will no longer be updating wind and pressure in the title of the thread. As is usually the case, I have support from folks that can let y’all know I’m ok in the likely event I lose signal.

For this trip I’ve been conferring with @MillvilleWx & @ORH_wxman. Will update as I can of course. 

Pressure down to 994.6mb here. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

With things starting to pick up here, I will no longer be updating wind and pressure in the title of the thread. As is usually the case, I have support from folks that can let y’all know I’m ok in the likely event I lose signal.

For this trip I’ve been conferring with @MillvilleWx & @ORH_wxman. Will update as I can of course. 

Pressure down to 994.6mb here. 

Stay safe down there, need you for the winter tracking! 
 

She’s a monster now coming in, you’ll get all you bargained for it you’re holding steady in Perry. 

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

A friend of mine is on a spit of land near Clearwater called Dunedin Beach and he said it’s getting pretty intense.

They are four stories up in a sturdy building and I’m sure they will be fine but this is when you start questioning if you should have stayed or not. 

They probably should have left. But too late now to do so.

 

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1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Stay safe down there, need you for the winter tracking! 
 

She’s a monster now coming in, you’ll get all you bargained for it you’re holding steady in Perry. 

All but certain to stay here. In a strong building and so far the heading looks solid. Even if the eye is a touch west, we’ll likely be in the RFQ. 

Fully expecting a Laura like event now, which is saying a lot. 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

All but certain to stay here. In a strong building and so far the heading looks solid. Even if the eye is a touch west, we’ll likely be in the RFQ. 

Fully expecting a Laura like event now, which is saying a lot. 

The eye keeps tightening on radar as it comes in, that RFQ is going to be insane coupled with the upper levels to help mix down big gusts + a quick forward speed. What did you gust to in Laura?

I’d expect you get a few 120-130mph gusts there in Perry. 

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1 minute ago, BlueSkyGA said:

 I know most of you consider AccuWeather forecast to be trash. I checked the hourly forecast for Macon, Ga, where my niece lives, and it has gust reaching 60 or so in the am. When i check my location in Elberton,Ga, it has gust of 70-80 mph at times in the early am. I dont see how this can be?

Macon is gonna be close.  They’re quite a bit east of Atlanta but I wouldn’t be surprised at this stage if the system even went east of them.  Athens and Augusta could be in for a world of hurt though  

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Just now, TPAwx said:

Just chatting with the fam about how lucky we were with this one.  A few thuds on the roof so prob some damage, and waiting to see what the surge does later.

I’m thinking the areas down near bayshore Blvd and of course Gulfport and the beaches are going to have one of their more notable surge events.

naples had their biggest surge event in Ian, and the center passed just a bit closer by them and to the NW. 

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Macon is gonna be close.  They’re quite a bit east of Atlanta but I wouldn’t be surprised at this stage if the system even went east of them.  Athens and Augusta could be in for a world of hurt though  

It’ll all come down to the vector once it crosses land. With how intense it’s getting, I’d lean NNE vs N or any tick W of due N. VLD might be ground zero. 

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13 minutes ago, hlcater said:

This is extremely important and worrying for surge. Massive hurricane force wind field combined with coastal geometry could easily yield 20+ft surge in spots. 

I understand the surge is going to be bad. But isn’t the speed a double edge sword.  I mean it will not be prolonged winds and the winds should switch fairly quickly 

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11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

A friend of mine is on a spit of land near Clearwater called Dunedin Beach and he said it’s getting pretty intense.

They are four stories up in a sturdy building and I’m sure they will be fine but this is when you start questioning if you should have stayed or not. 

This will be remembered for a long time. I have concern for everybody in a storm surge vulnerable location. I'm at 15 feet in Gulfport and getting a little concerned even this high.

https://clearwaterbeachcams.com/

We are in for a very nasty surprise tonight in Pinellas County.

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2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

The eye keeps tightening on radar as it comes in, that RFQ is going to be insane coupled with the upper levels to help mix down big gusts + a quick forward speed. What did you gust to in Laura?

I’d expect you get a few 120-130mph gusts there in Perry. 

Whatever Lake Charles got, we got lol. I ended up in the NE eyewall for hours. It was unreal. 

QfLeo8k.jpeg

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Just updated satellite estimate, let's see how it matches up with next recon pass.

 

Current Analysis ----- 

     Date : 26 SEP 2024 Time : 221020 UTC

      Lat : 27:54:35 N Lon : 84:18:00 W

 

     

                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax

                6.3 / 929.2mb/122.2kt

 

     

             Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 

                6.3 6.3 6.9

 

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

 

 Center Temp : +0.7C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C

 

 Scene Type : EYE

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