Major Hurricane Helene

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

6:00 pm update from NHC maintains the 120 mph winds and pressure of 950 mb.

7pm update or a special might have this at 130-135 depending on our next sonde. 

[Kevin Reilly]

GOES-East - Sector view: Gulf of Mexico - Sandwich - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

 

This strengthening rapidly wow!!!  Also definitely moving NE too this will be a Cat 4 storm at landfall.

 

 

[TSG]

58 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Those winds die down REAL quick on the west side...

 

 

27 minutes ago, MUWX said:

If it is, it barely is. The west side is very weak. 

[wthrmn654]

Just now, Hotair said:

I thought it was 42036 but that one is coming up now. I haven’t been able to cross reference the image. 

No worries per buoy site there's no buoys in gulf measuring that high

[WxWatcher007]

130-136kt FL winds on the east side. My goodness. 

[mob1]

137 knots in the eastern eyewall (FL)

[Allsnow]

940! 
 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Center sonde of 948mb with 8kt wind. 

[Allsnow]

 

[wthrmn654]

Wow satellite pressure estimates were 930 or 940 something and I thought they were crazy.. but recon finding 946... matches the recon findings fairly well. 

Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  26 SEP 2024    Time :   211020 UTC
      Lat :   27:33:35 N     Lon :   84:25:48 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                6.2 / 931.5mb/119.8kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                6.2     6.1     6.1

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

 Center Temp : -21.9C    Cloud Region Temp : -69.7C

 Scene Type : EYE

[Floydbuster]

Wow this thing looks like a solid Cat 4 hurricane. Amazing!

[Kevin Reilly]

This is one of those times where the intensity rapidly blows up the information cannot be given quick enough. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yikes....It probably won't get that intense, but Michael was a viable analog with intense diffluence aloft allowing for rapid RI right to coast.

[Radtechwxman]

Wonder if they're going to bump winds up because of their readings in eastern eyewall

[DDweatherman]

Satellite is going pretty nuclear and the core is compacting really tightly on the local radars now. She’s coming in hot now folks. Look out @WxWatcher007

[kat5hurricane]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This may come in comparable to Hugo in both intensity, size and speed of movement.

Hugo was what came to mind for me too. Let's hope that Atlanta doesn't get hit as hard as Charlotte did. I had family there and it took a long time to recover, there were some 90+ mph gusts.

[Allsnow]

 

[Superstorm]

This is one of those times where the intensity rapidly blows up the information cannot be given quick enough. 

What I don’t understand is that we have seen this the last few years in the “new climate” but people don’t understand (or believe) it can happen. We have warmer waters that will equal bigger storms. Easy.


.

[Prospero]

Storm surge is way past Idalia and still several hours before high tide and we are not even getting "the push" yet.

It will be pushing ten feet in Gulfport, I will bet. I have never seen a storm surge in Tampa Bay like this since I moved here in 2003.

[Windspeed]

Strong dualing VHTs are driving down central pressure. In turn, the gradient is sharpening/tightening. Recon showing a rapidly intensifying major hurricane now. It's going to be a long night.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

Hugo was what came to mind for me too. Let's hope that Atlanta doesn't get hit as hard as Charlotte did. I had family there and it took a long time to recover, there were some 90+ mph gusts.

Hugo got a nice boost from the gulf stream on its way in, so it's similar with respect to the fact it was intensifying as well....it was a cat 2 after interaction with PR.

[DDweatherman]

Been saying it all day but the Valdosta corridor to Albany, GA and up I 75 to Macon could be in for a wild ride with this forward speed and how intense Helene is going to be at LF. Could be their benchmark event relatively far inland. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

What I don’t understand is that we have seen this the last few years in the “new climate” but people don’t understand (or believe) it can happen. We have warmer waters that will equal bigger storms. Easy.


.

Not always that simple, especially along the N Gulf coast.

[Allsnow]

 

[wthrmn654]

Flight level winds 113-137 knots if I have my colors correct on the recon map?! Jeez

 

And lowest pressure I could see was 946.2mb 

[Wannabehippie]

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

6:00 pm update from NHC maintains the 120 mph winds and pressure of 950 mb.

NHC says 125 MPH

 

6:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 26
Location: 28.0°N 84.5°W
Moving: NNE at 23 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph
 

[wthrmn654]

Nhc 6 pm winds are 125 mph.  Was corrected

[Eskimo Joe]

This has got to be a Cat 4 now.

[Blizzard22]

The Weather Channel just showed up a map showing 75-90 mph wind gusts for Atlanta tomorrow morning.

[Wannabehippie]

Is Helene predicted to come on shore at high tide, or low tide. Even with the wave heights as high as they are, it still will help a bit if it comes on shore at low tide.