Major Hurricane Helene

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Really would like to see that eyewall close though.

It's not closed? 

[andyhb]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Really would like to see that eyewall close though.

Yeah the western part is definitely weak and still feeling some of the dry air.

[Radtechwxman]

On radar it has opened in sw quadrant again. But satellite presentation continues to improve 

[MUWX]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

It's not closed? 

If it is, it barely is. The west side is very weak. 

[Wannabehippie]

2 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Yeah the western part is definitely weak and still feeling some of the dry air.

The eastern eye looks like is still open. Might still close off considering how fast it is developing.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/68232b05-58d2-48b2-a3f4-c5ccb096a451

 

 

[BoulderWX]

Just now, Radtechwxman said:

On radar it has opened in sw quadrant again. But satellite presentation continues to improve 

Yup

[Doc Jon]

3 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

On radar it has opened in sw quadrant again. But satellite presentation continues to improve 

Radar shadow?  Given the amount of lightning in the core, there has to be a tremendous amount of hail in there screwing up the radar reflectivity.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Doc Jon said:

Radar shadow?  Given the amount of lightning in the core, there has to be a tremendous amount of hail in there screwing up the radar reflectivity.

It’s shown on two different radars. 

[wthrmn654]

11 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Buoy off Florida recording 31 foot waves near Helene

31? Which buoy is that by chance the one that's less then 31 miles away is showing 20 feet now

[CTWeatherFreak]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s shown on two different radars. 

do warm core systems even produce hail?

[Prospero]

18 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

Hurricane Helene's center is approx. 100 miles from Clearwater right now. It will likely get as close as 90 miles away before it begins gaining distance as it moves toward the Panhandle.

Already solid TS force winds at Surfside Condos on Clearwater Beach and still not the strongest they will see.

https://www.sailflow.com/map#27.962,-82.745,13,1,!172594,7

[CCHurricane]

5 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

31? Which buoy is that by chance the one that's less then 31 miles away is showing 20 feet now

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036

Approx Buoy Location in YELLOW

[hlcater]

Was thinking it's either attenuation or subsidence caused by strong eyewall convection that caused the opening. Could even be both. In any case IR continues to improve on a rapid pace.

 

Should have recon data within the next 30 min.

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, CCHurricane said:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036

 

Approx Buoy Location in YELLOW

I assumed that, but I only see 20 foot seas so maybe I'm missing something

[wthrmn654]

As of 09/26/2024 17:00 EDT, water levels along the Florida Gulf Coast are elevated and continuing to rise as Hurricane Helene approaches. 

 

Below is a breakdown of water level observations above normal tide levels by region:

 

Pensacola, FL to Apalachicola, FL.... 1.6 to 3.5 feet

Apalachicola, FL to Tampa Bay, FL....3.5 to 3.9 feet

Tampa Bay, FL to Key West, FL......1.6 to 3.7 feet

Winds along the south and southeastern Florida coast from Key West to Lake Worth Pier presently range between 25 and 35 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Winds from Key West to Cedar Key range between 25 and 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. Winds along the Florida Panhandle from Pensacola to Apalachicola range between 10 and 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Here’s the rapid intensification phase… as it pulls into land. She’s a beaut on satellite 

[Amped]

18z GFS  is about half a county west of 12z. The eye still goes straight over Perry more or less.

[Floydbuster]

 

[wxeyeNH]

AS of around 5:40pm we have a near perfect circular CDO around the eye with overshooting tops in the eye wall.  This is  bombing out at the worst time.  Recon will be in the eye in the next 10 minutes and I bet they find a 945mb storm.  

Also I would like to add that if you do not have any scientifically useful information please don't post.  Read more and post less so this thread doesn't get clogged with useless info.

 

[mob1]

Flight level winds now 97 knots in the western side of Helene as recon approaches the eye, that's a marked increase from precious recon missions and shows that the storm is a bit more symmetrical now. 

[ma blizzard]

looks like ~947 mb on latest recon! 

[wthrmn654]

Just now, ma blizzard said:

looks like ~947 mb on latest recon! 

946ish too! It flew east and it was going down

[Doc Jon]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

946ish too! It flew east and it was going down

Eye cleared out too.

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like Helen is down to 946 mb?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like Helen is down to 946 mb?

This may come in comparable to Hugo in both intensity, size and speed of movement.

[Eskimo Joe]

6:00 pm update from NHC maintains the 120 mph winds and pressure of 950 mb.

[DDweatherman]

Radar presentation rapidly improving now from KTBW and KTLH. Tightening eye that’s compacting and wrapping the brighter echoes around the NW quad

[Doc Jon]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like Helen is down to 946 mb?

...and in like, what?  An hour and a half or so?  Impressive.

[Hotair]

17 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

31? Which buoy is that by chance the one that's less then 31 miles away is showing 20 feet now

I thought it was 42036 but that one is coming up now. I haven’t been able to cross reference the image. 

[AccuChris]

Pressure down but they lowered winds at 6PM update? Interesting

000
WTNT64 KNHC 262200
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
600 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...

A slightly elevated Weatherflow station at the Skyway Fishing Pier
near the entrance to Tampa Bay recently measured a sustained wind
of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 84.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SW OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci


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