Major Hurricane Helene

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Yeah so Tallahassee went from "the black line is right over my head" to OUT OF THE CONE!

Yeah, yeah, yeah, impacts will be still be great, but can we please have a post-storm discussion about wtf happened here? 

TLH having it pass E won't be quite as beneficial as ATL having it pass E.  The winds will still be real bad on that W side at landfall, now if it goes 30-40 miles E of TLH then maybe they get a big break

[cptcatz]

3 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Will hurricane hunters be in there every hr now till landfall?

Assuming the plane that's about to get there took off with a full tank of gas there's no reason to believe it will need to land before landfall. 

[beanskip]

Just now, NeffsvilleWx said:

What’s there to discuss?

Storms track in the cone only 2/3 of the time. The NHC doesn’t hide that.

 

A LOT.

The NHC ignored the global models ... then, for the last 24 hours, the hurricane models and went with spaghetti plots in the face of pretty good agreement from all the other models on planet earth. 

[cptcatz]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

TLH having it pass E won't be quite as beneficial as ATL having it pass E.  The winds will still be real bad on that W side at landfall, now if it goes 30-40 miles E of TLH then maybe they get a big break

Those winds die down REAL quick on the west side...

[jburns]

If I heard right Helene is expected to be a Cat 2 near Albany, GA.

 

[CoastalWx]

Gotta say I’m impressed with her. I had my doubts on category four earlier, but it looks like it’s gonna be a low end four at least anyways. Imagine if it started this process six hours earlier.

[jburns]

1 minute ago, beanskip said:

A LOT.

The NHC ignored the global models ... then, for the last 24 hours, the hurricane models and went with spaghetti plots in the face of pretty good agreement from all the other models on planet earth. 

Take this to banter or wait until after the storm has passed.

[Radtechwxman]

Few things I noticed. Eyewall lightning continues signifying intensification not done. Also western part of storm looks rather dry but that's also far from radar so hard to say. Might be getting influenced more by trough. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, cptcatz said:

Those winds die down REAL quick on the west side...

Yeah, this storm is pretty much all Eastside.

[Hotair]

A Newly Released Image of Planet Earth Taken 30 Minutes Ago By the GOES-East Satellite.  Helene can be seen 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, beanskip said:

A LOT.

The NHC ignored the global models ... then, for the last 24 hours, the hurricane models and went with spaghetti plots in the face of pretty good agreement from all the other models on planet earth. 

I think the only mistake was the 11am issuance.  They went W only to have to go back E again thereafter.   Maybe holding it steady was right idea.  I'd have played the split between the hurricane models and globals a bit more dead even than they did the last 2 days for sure

[Blizzard22]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

TLH having it pass E won't be quite as beneficial as ATL having it pass E.  The winds will still be real bad on that W side at landfall, now if it goes 30-40 miles E of TLH then maybe they get a big break

I am halfway between Tallahassee and Atlanta. Will winds still be bad on the west side here ? I'm due south of Atlanta and due north of Tallahassee.

[DeltaPilot]

Rad, Probably some attenuation going on there. Storm needs to get closer to the radar.

[TSG]

5 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Those winds die down REAL quick on the west side...

That's old. They haven't hit the western side since before the 959 pass which was at 17:57Z, or, over 3 hours ago.

[dan11295]

Looks like from radar W eyewall may have opening up a bit, if only temporarily. That said satellite presentation continues to improve,

[CTWeatherFreak]

33 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Seems reasonable now.  140-145 would not surprise me

Is it true that to derive the actual wind speed, on the right side of the storm, you take the windspeed and add to it the forward speed of the hurricane movement  So a hurricane with a windspeed of 130mph and a forward speed of 20mph would produce an effective wind velocity  of 150mph?

[RamblinRed]

28 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Does anyone have a good source showing the extension of the hurricane force and tropical storm force winds coverage? I want something I can share on social media.

This is another good graphic from the NHC

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/154002.shtml?radii#contents

 

[Prospero]

24 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Siesta Key beach cam is pretty wild. Water over the whole beach and waves occasionally bumping the lifeguard stations. Glad my grandmother decided to take shelter inland. 

Low tide was over about a half hour ago and we have along ways to go to high tide after midnight. Already the water level is rising. Here in Gulfport we are used to seeing downtown flooded, but tonight could be the first time it will be too deep for people to wade in and around. It could be over everybody's heads in a few hours.

I notice the cameras are slow to load and that is because so many people are watching them. But after a moment or so you can see a live stream:

https://thegabber.com/gulfport-casino-web-cam/

[TPAwx]

Some spin ups just south and heading towards Tampa

[Hotair]

2 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Low tide was over about a half hour ago and we have along ways to go to high tide after midnight. Already the water level is rising. Here in Gulfport we are used to seeing downtown flooded, but tonight could be the first time it will be too deep for people to wade in and around. It could be over everybody's heads in a few hours.

I notice the cameras are slow to load and that is because so many people are watching them. But after a moment or so you can see a live stream:

https://thegabber.com/gulfport-casino-web-cam/

People leaving their cars to get bathed in salt water don’t seem so bright. 

[USCG RS]

28 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Seems reasonable now.  140-145 would not surprise me

Yeah.. I was questioning my call of 150 MPH at LF I made yesterday or the day before. I think its a distinct possibility. Becoming almost likely at this point and that is just going to cause more problems inland as well. 

[wthrmn654]

 

Latest ADT satellite estimate shows 115knot max now which translates to 132mph

[TJW014]

4 minutes ago, Hotair said:

People leaving their cars to get bathed in salt water don’t seem so bright. 

Some may be trying to bank in on insurance fraud

[cardinalland]

Hurricane Helene's center is approx. 100 miles from Clearwater right now. It will likely get as close as 90 miles away before it begins gaining distance as it moves toward the Panhandle.

[Doc Jon]

Wow, core lightning starting to ramp up.

 

Impressive.

[wthrmn654]

Buoy nearing the eye pressure is now dropping fast,  -0.35 inches  currently at 985.4mb sustained windabout 40 knots gusts nearly 60 knots.  Wave height close to 20 feet now. 

[clskinsfan]

Prayers for the Big Bend. This is a Horrific beast coming. 

 

[CoastalWx]

Really would like to see that eyewall close though.

[Sn0waddict]

https://www.facebook.com/share/aMC7VGCgby8Uxx7F/?mibextid=WC7FNe Taylor County is asking those who didn’t evacuate to write their name/DOB etc in permanent marker on their leg so they can identified. Scary stuff.

[Hotair]

Buoy off Florida recording 31 foot waves near Helene