Major Hurricane Helene

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, KoalaBeer said:

I want data and not just a picture.

[MattPetrulli]

500 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE IS A VERY DANGEROUS AND LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE...
...DAMAGING HURRICANE WINDS AND CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE 
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 84.6W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES

[Doc Jon]

Got some lightning in the core.

[jaxjagman]

2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I want data and not just a picture.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT4+shtml/262042.shtml

[WxWatcher007]

Just to level set, the 2am advisory had Helene at 85mph and 971mb. Now, Helene is at 125mph and 951mb, with the deepening rate increasing. 

Despite all the conversation today, we have objectively met the definition of rapid intensification and done so in 14 hours. 

 

How far it goes, who knows, but Helene will be added to our list of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones on final approach. 

[bdgwx]

2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I want data and not just a picture.

The RAMMB site has some useful products.

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm_experimental.asp?storm_identifier=al092024

[MattPetrulli]

Looking ever increasingly better, imo think we can get to 120-125 knots at LF. Still several hours left over water.

[jburns]

2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I  want data and not just a picture.

Then you might want to consider getting familiar with some sources before we are in the middle of a major event.  

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

Looking ever increasingly better, imo think we can get to 120-125 knots at LF. Still several hours left over water.

Seems reasonable now.  140-145 would not surprise me

[Emmett_Brown]

[Hoth]

Siesta Key beach cam is pretty wild. Water over the whole beach and waves occasionally bumping the lifeguard stations. Glad my grandmother decided to take shelter inland. 

[gallopinggertie]

NHC has Helene maintaining Cat 2 strength well into southern Georgia. 

[jaxjagman]

Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I'm very familiar with what's out there.  That still doesn't answer my question.

Think there is a banter thread for the storm,maybe ask there

[WxSynopsisDavid]

I been rather quiet with this storm, but it was humorous to see all the trolls posting how Helene was struggling. Or the post in particular saying the ceiling was Cat 2 and it would be a 100-105mph cane.

With that said, 150mph-155mph appears to be the ceiling now. Helene has the potential to achieve its actual peak on landfall.

[MattPetrulli]

SE eyewall has new VHTs going up + eye warming rather rapidly. 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Mind you, this Rapid Intensification process was friction induced. People often forget about the critical angle of approach and how the Florida west coast often induces frictional RI processes on approach.

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

8 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I want data and not just a picture.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles
(500 km).  A weather station at Venice Municipal Airport recently 
reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust of 69 mph 
(111 km/h).  Another observation near Venice Beach reported a 
sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) with a gust to 66 mph (106 
km/h). 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/262042.shtml

Add the NOAA graphic:

yellow = TS Force

Red = Hurricane Force

 

 

[Chinook]

67mph wind gust at a buoy that is far from the storm

[gallopinggertie]

Just now, Chinook said:

67mph wind gust at a buoy that is far from the storm

Also some 60 mph gusts at a couple Tampa-area airport stations.

[jburns]

6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I'm very familiar with what's out there.  That still doesn't answer my question.

Drop it.

[Master of Disaster]

3 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Mind you, this Rapid Intensification process was friction induced. People often forget about the critical angle of approach and how the Florida west coast often induces frictional RI processes on approach.

The NHC guys call this a Kelvin Wave. 

[Doc Jon]

tornado just North of Apalachicola, moving West.

[Allsnow]

 

[Radtechwxman]

Will hurricane hunters be in there every hr now till landfall?

[dan11295]

5 pm NHC track looks like it was shifted east at landfall, would make a big difference for TLH.

[beanskip]

Yeah so Tallahassee went from "the black line is right over my head" to OUT OF THE CONE!

Yeah, yeah, yeah, impacts will be still be great, but can we please have a post-storm discussion about wtf happened here? 

[franklin NCwx]

28 minutes ago, jdt said:

I assume that is at the Airport which is south of town. Asheville general has lower totals then surrounding areas do to mountains shadowing from multiple directions. We bought property to build on in the future about an hour south of there very close the the SC line and Blue Ridge Escarpment. Totals there can usually be double to triple that of Asheville. Saw a CoCoRaHS report posted earlier today of ~12” near Connesstee Falls which is about 10 minutes from our property.


.

Correct! Asheville is the driest part of the state. Just one county south receives the most annual rainfall on average.  I referring to reporting stations

[hawkeye_wx]

1 minute ago, Radtechwxman said:

Will hurricane hunters be in there every hr now till landfall?

The new recon plane is coming from Houston.  It just passed the mouth of the Mississippi river.  It should be in the eye in a couple hours.

[NeffsvilleWx]

1 minute ago, beanskip said:

Yeah so Tallahassee went from "the black line is right over my head" to OUT OF THE CONE!

Yeah, yeah, yeah, impacts will be still be great, but can we please have a post-storm discussion about wtf happened here? 

What’s there to discuss?

Storms track in the cone only 2/3 of the time. The NHC doesn’t hide that.

 

[bdgwx]

Based on the 5pm update Helene's IKE is near 100 TJ.