Major Hurricane Helene

[wthrmn654]

 

[gymengineer]

2 minutes ago, rygar said:

Can i have a link to this?  Family in area and want to make sure they are fully scared and prepared

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=gsp&issuedby=GSP&product=PNS

[NJwx85]

29 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

After Katrina fit South Florida as a strengthening Cat 1 and did a lot of damage JB wrote that a strengthening Cat 1 storm can cause more damage than a weakening Cat 3 storm. He mentioned mixing of upper air winds down to the surface.

Jim Cantore also said at the time that it was the strongest Cat 1 he had ever experienced. 

[beanskip]

Allan -- who is a fantastic met -- used a great visual to make the point that has been made here over the last 2 days.

 

https://x.com/RaleighWx/status/1839374056753451138

[wthrmn654]

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024
300 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...STORM SURGE AND WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...
...300 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A Weatherflow station at Egmont Channel at the entrance to Tampa 
Bay recently measured a sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a 
gust to 62 mph (100 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 84.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, beanskip said:

Allan -- who is a fantastic met -- used a great visual to make the point that has been made here over the last 2 days.

 

https://x.com/RaleighWx/status/1839374056753451138

 

Its wobbled north last 30 mins but it looks like it may go smack between the NHC track and the UKMET.  I am not certain as of now it'll make it over into that clustered region of plots

[wthrmn654]

Things booking now at 20 mph

[AStorms13]

Central pressure just reported at 951mb from aircraft recon

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, rygar said:

Can i have a link to this?  Family in area and want to make sure they are fully scared and prepared

 

[Prospero]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024
300 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...STORM SURGE AND WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...
...300 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A Weatherflow station at Egmont Channel at the entrance to Tampa 
Bay recently measured a sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a 
gust to 62 mph (100 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 84.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

Its not raining yet in Gulfport, FL but the breeze is quite stiff. It feels really good right now on the skin, but we know we are soon to be having a little white-knuckle ride coming up. I think most accept we will lose power by midnight, so preparing for that inside so everything is easy to get to.

[mob1]

1 minute ago, AStorms13 said:

Central pressure just reported at 951mb from aircraft recon

Granted it's extrapolated, but that indicates some significant deepening between passes. 

[DDweatherman]

9 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Its not raining yet in Gulfport, FL but the breeze is quite stiff. It feels really good right now on the skin, but we know we are soon to be having a little white-knuckle ride coming up. I think most accept we will lose power by midnight, so preparing for that inside so everything is easy to get to.

The effects other than surge will be a nuisance mostly for the Tampa St Pete metro. You guys get 50-60mph wind gusts from tropical systems plenty. The biggest concern, by far in places like Gulfport and those areas will be the surge. This evening’s high tide could bring a lot of water in that area. 

[WxWatcher007]

It has been quiet all day here in Perry. There has been plenty of heat and humidity but virtually no rain as everything has set up west of here.

 

I drove around a bit earlier and the roads have cleared out substantially as stores close and board up. I’m actually surprised that a lot of places haven’t boarded up. 

 

If the heading holds, we’re likely to get a big hit. Some of the damage from prior storms still remains. 

 

 

I’m cautiously optimistic about my spot. I’m in a good building with a number of reporters, chasers, and national guard. Of course a lot of locals are here too. 

This is by far the hardest part of a chase: the anxiety of watching every frame of the radar to make sure you’re in the right location. 

Will probably start my pressure trace in an hour or two if the storm heading holds. 

[beanskip]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Its wobbled north last 30 mins but it looks like it may go smack between the NHC track and the UKMET.  I am not certain as of now it'll make it over into that clustered region of plots

I agree -- not making enough eastward progress at the moment.

[TheDreamTraveler]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1839357344716832866

 

[Met1985]

16 minutes ago, rygar said:

Can i have a link to this?  Family in area and want to make sure they are fully scared and prepared

This came out of the NWS GSP office.  It's on there Facebook page.

[wthrmn654]

She's getting stronger! 

 

Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  26 SEP 2024    Time :   191020 UTC
      Lat :   26:49:47 N     Lon :   84:44:23 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.4 / 949.1mb/ 99.6kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                5.4     6.3     6.3

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

 Center Temp :  -8.1C    Cloud Region Temp : -70.8C

 Scene Type : EYE  

 Subtropical Adjustment : OFF 

 Extratropical Adjustment : OFF 

 Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING 

 Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC      
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method  

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT 
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :  182nmi
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1007mb

 Satellite Name :  GOES16 
 Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.0 degrees

[Prospero]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

The efforts other than surge will be a nuisance mostly for the Tampa St Pete metro. You guys get 50-60mph wind gusts from tropical systems plenty. The biggest concern, by far in places like Gulfport and those areas will be the surge. This evening’s high tide could bring a lot of water in that area. 

I have no doubts we will be breaking records tonight with the surge. I've been through enough here to recognize the signs. Downtown Gulfport and areas of Tampa Bay will be inundated beyond what we have seen before. Hopefully our cameras will stay up as long as possible. They stayed up in Idalia and Debbie even when water was inside the locations. But the winds were not that strong and electricity and internet stayed on. Tonight both could go down early.

Our home is at 15ft so we should be OK for this one. There has not been a 15ft storm surge in our area in modern history. But it is always possible...

Debris is already falling into our yard. Hold on! Woohooo! We gotta storm!

[MarkO]

Outflow more impressive on satellite. Unfortunately, the latest images I can find are about an hour old.

[gymengineer]

952 mb dropsonde with an 8 kt wind- 7 mb drop in pressure in about 1.5 hours

[wthrmn654]

Whoever said recon found that low pressure, drop sonde says 952

[WEATHER53]

What is the anticipated movement once the remnants reach  KY?

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Whoever said recon found that low pressure, drop sonde says 952

Wow. That’s a 7mb drop between dropsondes.

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Outflow more impressive on satellite. Unfortunately, the latest images I can find are about an hour old.

Kinda looks like an eye is trying to clear out now

[gymengineer]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Wow. That’s a 7mb drop between dropsondes.

NHC went with 959 mb at 3 pm to 951 mb at 4 pm (accounting for the 8-kt wind), so an even more impressive 8 mb drop in 1 hour in their Update Statements every hour.  

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Outflow more impressive on satellite. Unfortunately, the latest images I can find are about an hour old.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[MarkO]

A little newer i the NOAA site: 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24&dim=1

[wthrmn654]

 

[beanskip]

16 minutes ago, beanskip said:

I agree -- not making enough eastward progress at the moment.

Well, upon further review, doing the math comparing 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. NHC statements, it moved .9 degrees north and .3 east. If that continued, it would cross 84W before landfall, which would be consistent with those 18z plots. 

[hlcater]

3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

 

I don’t mean to rain on your parade but posting satellite and radar gifs every 15 min is unnecessary and clogs the thread seeing as we all have access to it.