Met1985 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah good luck up that way. Stay safe. Thank you. We will be keeping everyone up to date in our SE thread but the NWS is saying this will be historical. Some very strong working out of NWS GSP today. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, Hotair said: Has this GRAF model proved accurate previously ? My kids are in Gainesville and this would be catastrophic for the area there. Tendency with big storms is to have an east bias. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think they are in for issues with surge. On Hillsborough Bay, was last out at noon and water was washing over the seawall in places. High tide is between 2-3am and expecting high end of the forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 About 129nm north waves are at or above 18 feet, winds gusting nearly 65mph. Add insult to injury, high tide is roughly around 100 am , so anyone down there keep in mind that week play a big role in how high tide actually get in all coastal areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: NHC might be committed now. Not sure they're gonna make any E moves now, they've sort of layed out the reasoning and might go down with the ship somewhat I sure hope not - that's not how forecasting is supposed to work. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 25 minutes ago, Allsnow said: . . . ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FROM HURRICANE HELENE... This will be one of the most significant weather events to happen in the western portions of the area in the modern era. Record flooding is forecasted and has been compared to the floods of 1916 in the Asheville area. The impacts from this event are expected to be greater than Tropical Storm Fred from August 2021, the mountains in 2004 from Frances and Ivan, and in Upstate South Carolina the Saluda River Basin flooding from 1949. We plead with everyone that you take every single weather warning very seriously through the entirety of this event as impacts will be life- threatening and make sure to have multiple ways to receive the alerts. The protection of life and property is the overall mission of the National Weather Service, and we pledge to stand by the folks of the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. We cannot stress the significance of this event enough. Heed all evacuation orders from your local Emergency Managers and go to a storm shelter if you do not feel safe at your current location. Landslides, including fast-moving debris flows consisting of water, mud, falling rocks, trees, and other large debris, are most likely within small valleys that drain steep slopes. Landslides are powerful and potentially deadly, capable of washing out roads, bridges, and homes. People living in areas prone to landslides should be aware of the danger and Can i have a link to this? Family in area and want to make sure they are fully scared and prepared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Lightning has really ramped up in northern eyewall. Tell tale sign of intensifying or possibly RI hurricane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, rygar said: Can i have a link to this? Family in area and want to make sure they are fully scared and prepared https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=gsp&issuedby=GSP&product=PNS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 29 minutes ago, bigtenfan said: After Katrina fit South Florida as a strengthening Cat 1 and did a lot of damage JB wrote that a strengthening Cat 1 storm can cause more damage than a weakening Cat 3 storm. He mentioned mixing of upper air winds down to the surface. Jim Cantore also said at the time that it was the strongest Cat 1 he had ever experienced. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Allan -- who is a fantastic met -- used a great visual to make the point that has been made here over the last 2 days. https://x.com/RaleighWx/status/1839374056753451138 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 300 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...STORM SURGE AND WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... ...300 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... A Weatherflow station at Egmont Channel at the entrance to Tampa Bay recently measured a sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h). SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 84.8W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, beanskip said: Allan -- who is a fantastic met -- used a great visual to make the point that has been made here over the last 2 days. https://x.com/RaleighWx/status/1839374056753451138 Its wobbled north last 30 mins but it looks like it may go smack between the NHC track and the UKMET. I am not certain as of now it'll make it over into that clustered region of plots 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Things booking now at 20 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AStorms13 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Central pressure just reported at 951mb from aircraft recon 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 8 minutes ago, rygar said: Can i have a link to this? Family in area and want to make sure they are fully scared and prepared 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, wthrmn654 said: Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 300 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...STORM SURGE AND WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... ...300 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... A Weatherflow station at Egmont Channel at the entrance to Tampa Bay recently measured a sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h). SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 84.8W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES Its not raining yet in Gulfport, FL but the breeze is quite stiff. It feels really good right now on the skin, but we know we are soon to be having a little white-knuckle ride coming up. I think most accept we will lose power by midnight, so preparing for that inside so everything is easy to get to. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, AStorms13 said: Central pressure just reported at 951mb from aircraft recon Granted it's extrapolated, but that indicates some significant deepening between passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 9 minutes ago, Prospero said: Its not raining yet in Gulfport, FL but the breeze is quite stiff. It feels really good right now on the skin, but we know we are soon to be having a little white-knuckle ride coming up. I think most accept we will lose power by midnight, so preparing for that inside so everything is easy to get to. The effects other than surge will be a nuisance mostly for the Tampa St Pete metro. You guys get 50-60mph wind gusts from tropical systems plenty. The biggest concern, by far in places like Gulfport and those areas will be the surge. This evening’s high tide could bring a lot of water in that area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 It has been quiet all day here in Perry. There has been plenty of heat and humidity but virtually no rain as everything has set up west of here. I drove around a bit earlier and the roads have cleared out substantially as stores close and board up. I’m actually surprised that a lot of places haven’t boarded up. If the heading holds, we’re likely to get a big hit. Some of the damage from prior storms still remains. I’m cautiously optimistic about my spot. I’m in a good building with a number of reporters, chasers, and national guard. Of course a lot of locals are here too. This is by far the hardest part of a chase: the anxiety of watching every frame of the radar to make sure you’re in the right location. Will probably start my pressure trace in an hour or two if the storm heading holds. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its wobbled north last 30 mins but it looks like it may go smack between the NHC track and the UKMET. I am not certain as of now it'll make it over into that clustered region of plots I agree -- not making enough eastward progress at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1839357344716832866 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 16 minutes ago, rygar said: Can i have a link to this? Family in area and want to make sure they are fully scared and prepared This came out of the NWS GSP office. It's on there Facebook page. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 She's getting stronger! Current Analysis ----- Date : 26 SEP 2024 Time : 191020 UTC Lat : 26:49:47 N Lon : 84:44:23 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.4 / 949.1mb/ 99.6kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.4 6.3 6.3 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km Center Temp : -8.1C Cloud Region Temp : -70.8C Scene Type : EYE Subtropical Adjustment : OFF Extratropical Adjustment : OFF Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : OFF Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : 182nmi - Environmental MSLP : 1007mb Satellite Name : GOES16 Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.0 degrees 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: The efforts other than surge will be a nuisance mostly for the Tampa St Pete metro. You guys get 50-60mph wind gusts from tropical systems plenty. The biggest concern, by far in places like Gulfport and those areas will be the surge. This evening’s high tide could bring a lot of water in that area. I have no doubts we will be breaking records tonight with the surge. I've been through enough here to recognize the signs. Downtown Gulfport and areas of Tampa Bay will be inundated beyond what we have seen before. Hopefully our cameras will stay up as long as possible. They stayed up in Idalia and Debbie even when water was inside the locations. But the winds were not that strong and electricity and internet stayed on. Tonight both could go down early. Our home is at 15ft so we should be OK for this one. There has not been a 15ft storm surge in our area in modern history. But it is always possible... Debris is already falling into our yard. Hold on! Woohooo! We gotta storm! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Outflow more impressive on satellite. Unfortunately, the latest images I can find are about an hour old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 952 mb dropsonde with an 8 kt wind- 7 mb drop in pressure in about 1.5 hours 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Whoever said recon found that low pressure, drop sonde says 952 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 What is the anticipated movement once the remnants reach KY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Whoever said recon found that low pressure, drop sonde says 952 Wow. That’s a 7mb drop between dropsondes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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