Major Hurricane Helene

[Tallis Rockwell]

You'd figure that after beasts like Ian and Michael, we'd learn not to hasten to calling busts in these situations but here we are...

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Allsnow said:

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1839377236895711415

A win for the globals here.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Tallis Rockwell said:

You'd figure that after beasts like Ian and Michael, we'd learn not to hasten to calling busts in these situations but here we are...

And to my unscientific eye...with the tendency over the last several years for hurricanes to intensify right into landfall is enough not to discount it. It's actually amazing how that seems to be a predictable occurrence these days!

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

You'd figure that after beasts like Ian and Michael, we'd learn not to hasten to calling busts in these situations but here we are...

First off, this isn't even close to those. Secondly, who said bust? Describing the storm issues and why it's struggling is different than saying "This storm won't do shit, Mets and models all suck, what a bust!" 

[WxWatcher007]

This is pre NHC update, but eastern areas are in line to get hit really hard. Keep in mind though that the hurricane intensity models make the wind field more symmetrical upon landfall. West of eyewall is likely to get hit hard too. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

This is crazy to read..

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1839376026646036560

 

I saw that. It's not hype.

[bigtenfan]

4 minutes ago, jburns said:

Another thing to consider whatever the wind speed.  It has been my experience, and I have been in a few hurricanes, that there is a large difference between a land falling hurricane that is weakening and one that is strengthening.  It is hard to explain but a strengthening cane seems more violent. The wind ratchets up and down rapidly with higher gusts.  A weakening cane the wind seems more steady. While there are still gusts they seem to increase more gradually instead of suddenly slamming you without warning.  Just my experience, I am certainly not a met.

After Katrina fit South Florida as a strengthening Cat 1 and did a lot of damage JB wrote that a strengthening Cat 1 storm can cause more damage than a weakening Cat 3 storm. He mentioned mixing of upper air winds down to the surface.

[wthrmn654]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

A win for the globals here.

Of more shock,  if this gets to as strong as several of the hurricane models had showed days ago, and we all were saying there not very good until the system is somewhat more organized,  that's impressive for a system that hadn't even gotten a name let alone is core well defined / formed

[Allsnow]

. . . ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS FROM HURRICANE HELENE... This will be one of the most significant weather events to happen in the western portions of the area in the modern era. Record flooding is forecasted and has been compared to the floods of 1916 in the Asheville area. The impacts from this event are expected to be greater than Tropical Storm Fred from August 2021, the mountains in 2004 from Frances and Ivan, and in Upstate South Carolina the Saluda River Basin flooding from 1949. We plead with everyone that you take every single weather warning very seriously through the entirety of this event as impacts will be life- threatening and make sure to have multiple ways to receive the alerts. The protection of life and property is the overall mission of the National Weather Service, and we pledge to stand by the folks of the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. We cannot stress the significance of this event enough. Heed all evacuation orders from your local Emergency Managers and go to a storm
shelter if you do not feel safe at your current location. Landslides, including fast-moving debris flows consisting of water, mud, falling rocks, trees, and other large debris,
are most likely within small valleys that drain steep slopes. Landslides are powerful and potentially deadly, capable of washing out roads, bridges, and homes. People living in areas prone to landslides should be aware of the danger and

[beanskip]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1839377236895711415

Needless to say, game-changing development for Tallahassee. 

[Boston Bulldog]

Eyewall is starting to look “bumpy” on radar. Plenty of mesovorts starting to emerge, Helene is really tightening up the core now

[WxWatcher007]

Venice gusting to 55mph. Tampa just short of TS force gusts. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Venice gusting to 55mph. Tampa just short of TS force gusts. 

I think they are in for issues with surge. 

[CoastalWx]

That band off Tampa looks ripe for spouts and when onshore, tornadoes.

[Met1985]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I saw that. It's not hype.

No it's definitely not hype at all here in WNC. We have families moving away from the rivers tonight and we are really worried about the saturated grounds and 60mph wind gusts.

[Radtechwxman]

I think the loop current and the positive trough interaction are doing their thing. Helene continues to organize with a better looking CDO, more defined core and eye popping. I think there's a decent shot we get a cat 4 landfall. Maybe even mid cat 4. But 130 I think is very achievable. 

[BYG Jacob]

9 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Eyewall is starting to look “bumpy” on radar. Plenty of mesovorts starting to emerge, Helene is really tightening up the core now

Pressure is going to bottom out as those get ingested while the eyewall contracts

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

No it's definitely not hype at all here in WNC. We have families moving away from the rivers tonight and we are really worried about the saturated grounds and 60mph wind gusts.

Good luck up there. Stay safe. 

[TPAwx]

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Venice gusting to 55mph. Tampa just short of TS force gusts. 

May top out at 60-65 in a few hours.

[SnowGoose69]

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

NHC might be committed now.  Not sure they're gonna make any E moves now, they've sort of layed out the reasoning and might go down with the ship somewhat

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

No it's definitely not hype at all here in WNC. We have families moving away from the rivers tonight and we are really worried about the saturated grounds and 60mph wind gusts.

Yeah good luck up that way. Stay safe.

[Hotair]

Has this GRAF model proved accurate previously ?  My kids are in Gainesville and this would be catastrophic for the area there.  
 

[Met1985]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Good luck up there. Stay safe. 

Thank you. We will definitely be on edge tonight through tomorrow.  We have already seen a lot of flooding in various communities. 

[Met1985]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah good luck up that way. Stay safe.

Thank you. We will be keeping everyone up to date in our SE thread but the NWS is saying this will be historical. Some very strong working out of NWS GSP today. 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Hotair said:

Has this GRAF model proved accurate previously ?  My kids are in Gainesville and this would be catastrophic for the area there.  
 

Tendency with big storms is to have an east bias.

[TPAwx]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think they are in for issues with surge. 

On Hillsborough Bay, was last out at noon and water was washing over the seawall in places.  High tide is between 2-3am and expecting high end of the forecast.

[wthrmn654]

About 129nm north waves are at or above 18 feet,  winds gusting nearly 65mph. 

 

Add insult to injury, high tide is roughly around 100 am , so anyone down there keep in mind that week play a big role in how high tide actually get in all coastal areas

[beanskip]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

NHC might be committed now.  Not sure they're gonna make any E moves now, they've sort of layed out the reasoning and might go down with the ship somewhat

I sure hope not - that's not how forecasting is supposed to work. 

[rygar]

25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

. . . ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS FROM HURRICANE HELENE... This will be one of the most significant weather events to happen in the western portions of the area in the modern era. Record flooding is forecasted and has been compared to the floods of 1916 in the Asheville area. The impacts from this event are expected to be greater than Tropical Storm Fred from August 2021, the mountains in 2004 from Frances and Ivan, and in Upstate South Carolina the Saluda River Basin flooding from 1949. We plead with everyone that you take every single weather warning very seriously through the entirety of this event as impacts will be life- threatening and make sure to have multiple ways to receive the alerts. The protection of life and property is the overall mission of the National Weather Service, and we pledge to stand by the folks of the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. We cannot stress the significance of this event enough. Heed all evacuation orders from your local Emergency Managers and go to a storm
shelter if you do not feel safe at your current location. Landslides, including fast-moving debris flows consisting of water, mud, falling rocks, trees, and other large debris,
are most likely within small valleys that drain steep slopes. Landslides are powerful and potentially deadly, capable of washing out roads, bridges, and homes. People living in areas prone to landslides should be aware of the danger and

Can i have a link to this?  Family in area and want to make sure they are fully scared and prepared

[Radtechwxman]

Lightning has really ramped up in northern eyewall. Tell tale sign of intensifying or possibly RI hurricane.