Major Hurricane Helene

[KChuck]

39 minutes ago, Hotair said:

I believe that someone has his greater than or equal arrows pointed in the wrong direction. It translates to less than or equal to 105 mph and MSLP less than or equal to 960 hPa.

[MattPetrulli]

Just now, CTWeatherFreak said:

Its not a 'bust' like some of the worst NE snowstorm busts..  .  Its just a bust as to the hype about RI which was supposed to have occurred as soon as it hit the loop current, and It still may get to cat 4 but it seems unlikely.

Disagree. We still got 8-ish hours until landfalls and it's already at 95-100 knots. I wouldn't call 115 knots unlikely. 

[buckeyefan1]

Ya'll take the bust discussion to the banter thread. This storm is doing exactly what it was forecasted to do. 

[USCG RS]

32 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

FYI, if you see a rainfall graphic depicting 15" - 30" of rain forecast by the NWS in the hill county of South Carolina, it is made in error and not valid. They have since updated the infographic.

I will pass that along. Thank you. 

[MattPetrulli]

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND HELENE A MAJOR HURRICANE... The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h). This makes Helene a dangerous category 3 major hurricane. Additional strengthening is expected before Helene makes landfall in the Florida Big Bend this evening. SUMMARY OF 225 PM EDT...1825 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 84.9W ABOUT 170 MI...280 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

[wthrmn654]

Last thing for a while but, best visual comparison... look at how big that blue wind field line is jeez! 

 

 

 

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/?sw=17.49739,-89.05518&ne=34.02535,-78.28857&layers=111111111000

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND HELENE A MAJOR HURRICANE... The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h). This makes Helene a dangerous category 3 major hurricane. Additional strengthening is expected before Helene makes landfall in the Florida Big Bend this evening. SUMMARY OF 225 PM EDT...1825 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 84.9W ABOUT 170 MI...280 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

Bombs away. Once those hot towers got wrapped around we are picking up in intensity quickly. 

[LithiaWx]

Cat 3 120

[Allsnow]

Already 12-16 inches of rain 

 

 

[Floydbuster]

[CoastalWx]

Is the upgrade based on FL winds? Would be nice to get some reports from the surface.

[nycwinter]

cat 4 is very douable  the only question will it be a low end or high end cat 4

[BoulderWX]

Getting that classic look on radar. Banding is incredibly impressive 

[bdgwx]

Based on the latest update I calculate an IKE of 104 TJ. Helene is going to generate a substantial surge.

[wthrmn654]

[DDweatherman]

Things are going to be really dicey it seems for Valdosta if current trends continue. They might be in the eyewall later this evening. 

[NorthHillsWx]

In Other bad news, this system strengthened early enough to work on maxing out the surge. Get the F away from the coast in the big bend. Hope everyone heeds that. Thankfully it’s not super populated but there’s going to be surge the likes of which that part of the coast has never seen before 

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Is the upgrade based on FL winds? Would be nice to get some reports from the surface.

I read somewhere earlier this season that the NHC was reviewing the SFMR generally because of measurement issues. I’ll see if I can find where that came from. 

[Jebman]

That forward motion is a good thing, 16 mph.

[Normandy]

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

In Other bad news, this system strengthened early enough to work on maxing out the surge. Get the F away from the coast in the big bend. Hope everyone heeds that. Thankfully it’s not super populated but there’s going to be surge the likes of which that part of the coast has never seen before 

This.  Storm will smash surge records for the region and it’s going to be absolutely cranking when it comes ashore.

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Jebman said:

That forward motion is a good thing, 16 mph.

Going to help the wind damage impacts penetrate further inland though..

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I read somewhere earlier this season that the NHC was reviewing the SFMR generally because of measurement issues. I’ll see if I can find where that came from. 

I heard that too. Just not a big fan of extrapolation determining the winds without the help of other tools. 

[jburns]

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

In Other bad news, this system strengthened early enough to work on maxing out the surge. Get the F away from the coast in the big bend. Hope everyone heeds that. Thankfully it’s not super populated but there’s going to be surge the likes of which that part of the coast has never seen before 

Another thing to consider whatever the wind speed.  It has been my experience, and I have been in a few hurricanes, that there is a large difference between a land falling hurricane that is weakening and one that is strengthening.  It is hard to explain but a strengthening cane seems more violent. The wind ratchets up and down rapidly with higher gusts.  A weakening cane the wind seems more steady. While there are still gusts they seem to increase more gradually instead of suddenly slamming you without warning.  Just my experience, I am certainly not a met.

[NorthHillsWx]

Check out the mesovortices rotating around that eyewall. IMO there isn’t a more telling sign of a storm going nuclear than seeing that. 

[RU848789]

Cat 3...

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024
300 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...STORM SURGE AND WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...
...300 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A Weatherflow station at Egmont Channel at the entrance to Tampa 
Bay recently measured a sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a 
gust to 62 mph (100 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 84.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

[dseagull]

Saving grace is that it will be coming ashore to the west of one of the least populated coastlines in the region.  

[Wmsptwx]

Just now, dseagull said:

Saving grace is that it will be coming ashore to the west of one of the least populated coastlines in the region.  

Yea basically just swamps

[wthrmn654]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I heard that too. Just not a big fan of extrapolation determining the winds without the help of other tools. 

This may also go towards what you guys were saying..

[wthrmn654]

Curious, just was looking at total precipitatable water,  that less colored spiral getting wrapped around the western flank,  is that anything that would affect weakening/ strengthening at this point? 

 

EDIT: just noticed time stamp is a few hours old.

[Allsnow]