Major Hurricane Helene

[MattPetrulli]

958.3 extra

[KoalaBeer]

Tornado threat ramping up into the afternoon. CC drop on this one by Ehrhardt SC.

[schoeppeya]

4 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

958.3 extra

Here we go. This is probably about the worst time timing wise for a more rapid intensification to start. 

[Allsnow]

And here we go….

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Center sonde was 960mb with a 7kt wind. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Some on here are just not in touch with reality. Everything about this storm is on track. It has been steadily organizing. Pressure has been falling, it’s eliminated that outer wind maxima and winds are responding to pressure falls. This thing has more than enough time to reach major status and I still think 110-115 kts is going to be LF intensity. These giant storms never intensify that crazy fast but it’s doing exactly like you’d expect one to do. Lots of lightning in eyewall and I expect wind to increase 5-10 kts every 6 hours until it’s on shore 

[jbenedet]

3 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Currently has a Cat 3 look on IR. 

Now do cat 4. 

[KoalaBeer]

5 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

To be clear, I didn’t say that it hasn’t happened… I personally hadn’t seen official forecasts in my memory. That’s all…

Fair enough. It’s not super uncommon with these high end systems. Florence is another one that comes to mind that dropped a fairly widespread 20-30+ inches. 

[Sn0waddict]

Got a bad feeling looking at the latest IR. This looks ready to explode with no time for an EWRC.  

[Amped]

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The HMON is the only cane model on tidbits showing any semblance of a N or NNW track over GA and its still 70 miles E of the NHC track

Hmon has been consistent with the landfall intensity, and it might end up being fairly accurate.

[SnowGoose69]

FOX WX forecasting 90 mph gusts in ATL 

[schoeppeya]

The core looks pretty salty from the tampa radar

[wthrmn654]

20 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Here we go. This is probably about the worst time timing wise for a more rapid intensification to start. 

Translated to 960

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like my forecast got deleted, so here is just the link since mods must be anal. Sorry, billion things at once.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/09/intensifying-hurricane-helenes.html

[SnowGoose69]

Euro LF no different than 06z run...its probably too far east as its east of the NHC track.  Over N-CNTRL GA it ticked east again

[Hotair]

[NavarreDon]

https://x.com/nwsgsp/status/1839348419032408339?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA


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[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, NavarreDon said:

https://x.com/nwsgsp/status/1839348419032408339?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA


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Yeah the Greenville/Spartanburg Area is on full alert right now. 

Red Cross has all hands on deck and the local AHJ is - concerned. 

[Eskimo Joe]

FYI, if you see a rainfall graphic depicting 15" - 30" of rain forecast by the NWS in the hill county of South Carolina, it is made in error and not valid. They have since updated the infographic.

[wthrmn654]

Last night, was  saying if nothing changed by 8 am, it would be doubtful for big end storm.  

Recon showing such large area on the eastern side especially 64 knots or even higher

 

 

That's not the case, she's playing out as models have been hinting,  the wind field is ridiculously big,  in fact, for comparison, looking at some stats,  sandy in 2012 had tropical storm form winds 943 miles wide!.. which is the record holder on the Atlantic side. 

 

Helene is about 500ish miles wide, I heard recently but can't confirm. 

Large storms cause large issues. Fresh water flooding, wind and big storm surge.  It's coming so buckle down and stay safe those in the Gulf right now! 

 

[NeonPeon]

37 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Because it’s structurally never been that kind of storm.  This has been a giant gyre based system that organized via curved bands and multiple rotating convective bursts.  Every storm doesn’t take the CDO path with the eye popping out.  It’s not even physically possible with a core this size (the eye is 55 miles wide for example) 

I don't really know what this means. I wasn't anticipating it having a giant CDO and then popping an eye. I definitely also wasn't expecting it to ingest as much dry air as it did, as dry air wasn't forecast to be an issue, or rather it was explicitly discussed as not being an issue. Given the combination of the system being so massive, and the dry air it ingested, it's organized itself quite rapidly, but it also left the cancun area in a sorry state and its core open. It also has thus far taken the RI off the table that was so strongly indicated. It may be getting its act together now, and its definitely steadily strengthening, but it still has the look of being lopsided.

Some of the other large atlantic hurricanes in my memory solved the problem by having a really large clear eye at a similar stage in development. This has threatened to do that but hasn't really ever cleared it out and has wobbled.

The uncertainty of RI is exactly why I'm imagining there is so much attention on it. That and its increased frequency due to climate change. It's why I find watching hurricanes so fascinating as they are at once incredibly fragile and incredibly strong.

[wthrmn654]

As it stands right now, based on the Forcast track, she's going be passing closely 2 buoys out of service in gulf, and since track shifted right,  only 1 other station active in the Gulf well be nearby her.  If she shifts west, there's able 4 buoys that we can use but it's quite offshore.  There's 1 or 2 buoys/ stations at shore that are also or of order.  Hopefully there's some noaa/nws stations near the shore that can give us some good pressure/ wind readings. 

[MattPetrulli]

Eyewall and CDO continue to improve and looking real good now.

[SnowGoose69]

Based on current radar of center I'd lean it does come in E of TLH but a few wobbles will change that

[Allsnow]

 

[Roger Smith]

There is enough time to reach cat-4, I don't think cat-5 was ever a strong option. I will say cat-4 by 21z and either cat-4 to landfall or just back to top end cat-3 at landfall which I currently  think will be 03z near St marks NWR to western Taylor co. Track will place western eyewall over TLH around 05z and very close to stormtracker's proposed location 09z and near or just east of ATL by 12-15z Friday.

For a min pressure will go with 947 just before landfall. (935 is probably limit for min SLP)

40/70 I wanted to read your assessment but link was broken when I tried, this is perhaps why a post was deleted? 

Is my guess above close to yours? If not are you less intense and further east? That was my feeling as to bust direction, not stronger and not west of Carrabelle for landfall. Still 30% prob direct hit TLH.

 

[MattPetrulli]

115 Knot FL last pass, 956.6 HPA

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like my forecast got deleted, so here is just the link since mods must be anal. Sorry, billion things at once.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/09/intensifying-hurricane-helenes.html

 

3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

There is enough time to reach cat-4, I don't think cat-5 was ever a strong option. I will say cat-4 by 21z and either cat-4 to landfall or just back to top end cat-3 at landfall which I currently  think will be 03z near St marks NWR to western Taylor co. Track will place western eyewall over TLH around 05z and very close to stormtracker's proposed location 09z and near or just east of ATL by 12-15z Friday.

For a min pressure will go with 947 just before landfall. (935 is probably limit for min SLP)

40/70 I wanted to read your assessment but link was broken when I tried, this is perhaps why a post was deleted? 

Is my guess above close to yours? If not are you less intense and further east? That was my feeling as to bust direction, not stronger and not west of Carrabelle for landfall. Still 30% prob direct hit TLH.

 

Try it now...

[wthrmn654]

16 foot waves already  129NM north at buoy closest to Helene.  Pressure already down to 29.40 

Current photo of the angry Gulf 

 

 

Link for anyone who wants to track 

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036

 

[MattPetrulli]

10 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

115 Knot FL last pass, 956.6 HPA

FL reduction would support a cat 3 upgrade.