Major Hurricane Helene

[MarkO]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

How far inland would a 15’ surge go before it dissipated to less than 1 foot?

Looking at Google Earth, possibly 10-15 miles

[franklin NCwx]

Historic!

[OSUmetstud]

2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

How far inland would a 15’ surge go before it dissipated to less than 1 foot?

These are inundation maps based on different hurricane categories. It depends on a lot of factors like the topography of land that the water is trying to flow over. 

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/203f772571cb48b1b8b50fdcc3272e2c/page/Category-4/

[StormChazer]

Towers going up in the SE Quadrant, might see some more symmetry here and begin to see a pressure drop.

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said:

Historic!

I have never seen a 20-30” official forecast. And honestly wouldn’t be surprised if some places surpass that. Incredible. Even if the worst case doesn’t pan out, which it hopefully won’t, this one will be historic in its own right. 

[SnowGoose69]

HAFS-B first 12z in nearly same LF point as 06z but slower, close to NHC LF point

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

And the hip is connected to the thigh bone; and so it goes.  Being from the nonrtheast, Ive experienced enough busts so I shouldnt be surprised..   Tough to get the Big One to come to fruition.

I think it’s too early to say “bust” and with intensity forecast I’m not sure what would qualify. Would 115-120mph instead of 130 count as bust? The rain forecast looks perfectly on track so I see no bust there. Surge is also dependent on several different factors. 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

I have never seen a 20-30” official forecast. And honestly wouldn’t be surprised if some places surpass that. Incredible. Even if the worst case doesn’t pan out, which it hopefully won’t, this one will be historic in its own right. 

I believe there were forecasts that high in Texas associated with Hurricane Harvey. 

[jm1220]

Just now, BoulderWX said:

I have never seen a 20-30” official forecast. And honestly wouldn’t be surprised if some places surpass that. Incredible. Even if the worst case doesn’t pan out, which it hopefully won’t, this one will be historic in its own right. 

Deep fast tropical feed from the E/SE upsloping several thousand feet in those mountains. It’ll be bad for sure and for some favored places to rain in that situation, horrendously bad. As others mentioned already over 6” rain in spots. 

[CoastalWx]

I'd say vis and IR looking markedly better last hour. She's getting her act together imo.

[USCG RS]

From Michael Fischer

[BYG Jacob]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd say vis and IR looking markedly better last hour. She's getting her act together imo.

Finally stopped puking out outflow boundaries. Looks much better right now.

[OSUmetstud]

im a big fan of the hafs modeling project in general, but man these runs of going back and forth between intense hurricane and weak to moderate hurricane are a bit much. 

[franklin NCwx]

7 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

I have never seen a 20-30” official forecast. And honestly wouldn’t be surprised if some places surpass that. Incredible. Even if the worst case doesn’t pan out, which it hopefully won’t, this one will be historic in its own right. 

Me either.  It's been pouring here for the past 24 hours 

[Floydbuster]

 

[Amped]

5 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

From Michael Fischer

Luckily it only has until 10 or 11pm tops before it gets on land. 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

Luckily it only has until 10 or 11pm tops before it gets on land. 

But it doesn’t need much time at all to really bomb from here if everything’s finally figured out. And if anything it might be bad timing since there isn’t time for an EWRC to get underway. 

[USCG RS]

23 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Historic!

Can you link this? I can't find that exact image and I would like to send it to some peeople. Thanks.

 

Edit: Nvm. Finally found it. Thanks though. 

[Floydbuster]

Just now, jm1220 said:

But it doesn’t need much time at all to really bomb from here if everything’s finally figured out. And if anything it might be bad timing since there isn’t time for an EWRC to get underway. 

Remember though, Michael had zero fall troughs in the southern U.S. until mid-October, and that water was primed. 

[erbsonci]

https://baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weather/bay-news-9-cameras

Lots of Greater Tampa Bay and Central Florida webcams at this link. They're giving like snapshot feeds, I think. Madeira Beach in Pinellas, the water is up to the dune line, covering what is normally beach.

[olafminesaw]

I mean 105 to 125 in 8-12 hours is certainly not as big a hurdle as y'all make it sound. Not to say it's going to happen. But the bottom line is a major hurricanes is likely at landfall which is not going to have a much different impact than a low end cat 4

[SnowGoose69]

9 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

im a big fan of the hafs modeling project in general, but man these runs of going back and forth between intense hurricane and weak to moderate hurricane are a bit much. 

Those HAFS/HWRF/HMON I notice too are not capturing the 10m winds inland.  My experience has been the HRRR max 10m wind product verifies well with these inland once inside 8 hours.

[MattPetrulli]

Dual rotating VHTs on each side now

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

How far inland would a 15’ surge go before it dissipated to less than 1 foot?

Not sure..I wouldn't want to be near enough to the beach to find out.

[NeonPeon]

13 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Most folks In this thread lack patience and seek LOLs.  Now time for Helene to put on a show 

It's never really hanging on to a stable core structure though. It never has loci of intense convection, just the one, and it hasn't had a stable symmetrical eye either. It keeps looking like it's going to, but can't quite clear itself out.

[schoeppeya]

4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I mean 105 to 125 in 8-12 hours is certainly not as big a hurdle as y'all make it sound. Not to say it's going to happen. But the bottom line is a major hurricanes is likely at landfall which is not going to have a much different impact than a low end cat 4

Exactly what I have been trying to say, it clears out an eye and we get a 15-20 millibar drop in pressure fairly quickly and its basically right track with where its forecast to end up. There is still more than enough time for that to happen

[schoeppeya]

4 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

It's never really hanging on to a stable core structure though. It never has loci of intense convection, just the one, and it hasn't had a stable symmetrical eye either. It keeps looking like it's going to, but can't quite clear itself out.

I dont disagree, but the structure has been continuously improving, just slowly. Until the structure shows an obvious degradation I still think a period of more rapid intensification is on the table. 

 

ETA: Maybe with towers going up on both sides of the eye now we see more sustained eyewall convection

[KoalaBeer]

26 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

I have never seen a 20-30” official forecast. And honestly wouldn’t be surprised if some places surpass that. Incredible. Even if the worst case doesn’t pan out, which it hopefully won’t, this one will be historic in its own right. 

 

[SnowGoose69]

The HMON is the only cane model on tidbits showing any semblance of a N or NNW track over GA and its still 70 miles E of the NHC track

[Normandy]

5 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

It's never really hanging on to a stable core structure though. It never has loci of intense convection, just the one, and it hasn't had a stable symmetrical eye either. It keeps looking like it's going to, but can't quite clear itself out.

Because it’s structurally never been that kind of storm.  This has been a giant gyre based system that organized via curved bands and multiple rotating convective bursts.  Every storm doesn’t take the CDO path with the eye popping out.  It’s not even physically possible with a core this size (the eye is 55 miles wide for example)