Major Hurricane Helene

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Blizzard22 said:

Is that normal for the NHC to be off by 50 miles ?

Recently they've had some events where they've had decent sized misses, not necessarily on LF but post LF to a degree as I have said may be the case here.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, beanskip said:

Oh yeah, the surge story has been written. Can't change it now. But wind damage -- still some wiggle room depending on track. 

Even surge will be considerably less west of the track, though.

I should be done w my write up soon...work happened this AM.

[OSUmetstud]

6 minutes ago, beanskip said:

So the latest IR frame appears to put the eye at 84.9W 24.8 N.

Is that actually the eye?

I ask because if you plot that on the 11 a.m. NHC track, it's already almost out of the cone to the right. 

This was the VDM for one hour ago. That's the best estimate for position.

 

046 
URNT12 KNHC 261447
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL092024
A. 26/14:15:30Z
B. 25.28 deg N 085.55 deg W
C. 700 mb 2792 m
D. 962 mb
E. 220 deg 8 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C30
H. 66 kt
I. 340 deg 13 nm 14:11:30Z
J. 064 deg 59 kt
K. 338 deg 15 nm 14:11:00Z
L. 76 kt
M. 091 deg 35 nm 14:25:00Z
N. 186 deg 101 kt
O. 090 deg 58 nm 14:31:30Z
P. 14 C / 3043 m
Q. 16 C / 3049 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 4 nm
U. AF308 1609A HELENE    OB 04
MAX FL WIND 101 KT 090 / 58 NM 14:11:00Z
;

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

im guessing that's the most developed area in that region? You get a nice combo of right front quad wind there and some potential for the eastern eye. Maybe a better chance of eye in Newport or St Mark's but im also not sure of the viability of that area. 

Yeah, this is actually my second time here (Idalia). The road network provides me with quick options and yeah, definitely most developed in the area. I don’t have any interest in being in a surge zone so I’m typically more inland. 

Also, WPC has significantly expanded the high risk to include much of GA, including metro Atlanta. 

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, this is actually my second time here (Idalia). The road network provides me with quick options and yeah, definitely most developed in the area. I don’t have any interest in being in a surge zone so I’m typically more inland. 

Also, WPC has significantly expanded the high risk to include much of GA, including metro Atlanta. 

But drowning shots make big money. 

[Seminole]

4 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

Took another gulp of dry air  

Seems to be a recurring theme regarding what has held her back. Each time it looks like the dry air mixed out another fresh batch comes in. This is very evident in the WV loops.  

[DDweatherman]

Dry air has been the theme of the season. Francine only flushed it out at the very last second and then she blasted right before landfall. She was a good mixer of winds to the surface in LA.  Could see this tack on some strength on that final approach that mixes down winds more optimally. 

[dan11295]

Strength wise, the dry air/asymmetric structure may very help keep Helene in check until landfall. Obviously a major at landfall is still quite possible. Basically been steady state right now as a result for last 4-5 hours. 

 

EDIT couple post just above me basically said the same thing.

[hawkeye_wx]

The pressure is still 962 mb.  Overnight into this morning is when the aggressive hurricane models had Helene bombing, but it didn't happen.

[USCG RS]

29 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

GFS continues the slowing trend. 

 

 

That is worrisome. As most know, an extra 6 or 12 hours over that bath water is going to have singificant implications for organization and intensity. 

[erbsonci]

15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, this is actually my second time here (Idalia). The road network provides me with quick options and yeah, definitely most developed in the area. I don’t have any interest in being in a surge zone so I’m typically more inland. 

Also, WPC has significantly expanded the high risk to include much of GA, including metro Atlanta. 

If you don't mind me asking, do you do something related to storms? Like, why are you in Perry?

[CTWeatherFreak]

Mystifying how most of the models and forecasters predicted the most perfect environment for Helene to take off once in the gulf  featuring lack of inhibiting delilmiters when in reality, its being seriously impeded by the ingestion of dry air to its detriment.. How is  it that models failed to pick this up?

[MarkO]

Center looks to have an almost due north track over the past hour via radar.

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, USCG RS said:

That is worrisome. As most know, an extra 6 or 12 hours over that bath water is going to have singificant implications for organization and intensity. 

Yeah i thought that too, but after all of these issue today, im more on the side that the internal structure of the storm just isn't going to allow a lot of intensification before landfall. It's not like the models are really forecasting a ton of that anymore. Global and hurricane models really only seem to show slow intensification this afternoon up until landfall. Well see. 

 

[OSUmetstud]

Getting pooped emojied for having weather opinions lol

[Seminole]

https://www.sgilighthousecam.com/

Live webcam on St. George Island Lighthouse. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

Getting pooped emojied for having weather opinions lol

Well, there is plenty to go around....a lot of weather aificionados are full of shit, apparently.

[USCG RS]

5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah i thought that too, but after all of these issue today, im more on the side that the internal structure of the storm just isn't going to allow a lot of intensification before landfall. It's not like the models are really forecasting a ton of that anymore. Global and hurricane models really only seem to show slow intensification this afternoon up until landfall. Well see. 

 

Yeah. It has been a slow process for this storm, which, given its' size I am not necessarily shocked (though I did expect greater strengthening by this time). That withstanding, the latest Vortex Message showcases a Closed eye and it is getting itself gradually more and more together. I noticed last night that the outflow of this storm is quite impressive, both poleward and equatorward. In fact, what came to mind was a favorable trough interaction process with what is over the Midwest/SE United States currently. If that trough can truly vent Helene with the really warm bath water she currently sits in.. I shudder to think of what happens, especially given the core getting its act togehter, and despite being such a large storm. 

It, unfortunately, is a true wait and see game. 

[CTWeatherFreak]

1 minute ago, erbsonci said:

What I think is weird is as an amateur storm watcher and def not some sort of maverick, I called it from the start on path and intensity. The weather is just a touch cool in FL for this time of year and the humidity has come down some too. The Gulf temps are just slightly cooler for this time of year, imho. I've lived here my whole life tho so idk. People love to drastically over or under hype in my opinion tho.

Loop current temps were around 87 degrees.. I wouldnt call that an inhibiting factor.

[gtg947h]

We're off to the east so the worst winds and rain aren't as big a concern here (though we just hit 2.50 at the house), but what effect would a slower and/or weaker storm have on the coastal tornado threat this evening?  Anything noticeable?  The impact to my parents and in laws (both real close to KFFC) is obviously quite affected by track, too...

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Mystifying how most of the models and forecasters predicted the most perfect environment for Helene to take off once in the gulf  featuring lack of inhibiting delilmiters when in reality, its being seriously impeded by the ingestion of dry air to its detriment.. How is  it that models failed to pick this up?

Because of the way the atmosphere works. You can be off just slightly, and the whole forecast goes to shit. Models off by even 10% RH in a large depth of the column are possible for sure.

 

And then there goes the forecast.

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

That is worrisome. As most know, an extra 6 or 12 hours over that bath water is going to have singificant implications for organization and intensity. 

If it can’t mix out the dry air it can stay over the water as long as it wants, it won’t organize as well as it can so it won’t bomb. It keeps having the same issue with wrapping the deep convection all the way around so we keep having the eye wall open up. 

[OSUmetstud]

This is something that Eric Webb brought up the past few days before Helene took off. I see some elements from the WSW drifting toward Helene on the mid-level WV that are originating from John's outflow to the southwest that could be affecting things. Mostly internal factors, but i think there could be something there. This is shear that's underneath the outflow layer. 

 

[CTWeatherFreak]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Because of the way the atmosphere works. You can be off just slightly, and the whole forecast goes to shit. Models off by even 10% RH in a large depth of the column are possible for sure.

 

And then there goes the forecast.

And the hip is connected to the thigh bone; and so it goes.  Being from the nonrtheast, Ive experienced enough busts so I shouldnt be surprised..   Tough to get the Big One to come to fruition.

[MattPetrulli]

Satellite has been improving with VHTs firing in right quad along with CDO ballooning and cooling 

[erbsonci]

9 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Loop current temps were around 87 degrees.. I wouldnt call that an inhibiting factor.

Yes, but (and this is not to argue, only learn)...compare a late-August storm before daytime highs, humidity, and general Gulf temps have broken to a late-Sept which was not as well-formed. Wouldn't those be the major differences in how this ended up?

[WxWatcher007]

31 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

But drowning shots make big money. 

 My wife prefers I come home. 

I prefer wind. 

16 minutes ago, erbsonci said:

If you don't mind me asking, do you do something related to storms? Like, why are you in Perry?

Storm chasing. I’ve documented a variety of hurricanes/blizzards/severe around the country (and Canada once) for almost a decade now. Usually my stuff gets picked up by outlets but for tropical, my chief passion, I love to forecast, document, and measure the impact of hurricanes. 

[nycwinter]

2 minutes ago, erbsonci said:

Yes, but (and this is not to argue, only learn)...compare a late-August storm before daytime highs, humidity, and general Gulf temps have broken to a late-Sept which was not as well-formed. Wouldn't those be the major differences in how this ended up?

hurricane michael became  a cat 5 as it approached the coast in mid october...so that throws your gulf temps cooling out the window..

[WEATHER53]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get his point, though...everyone should have prepared for 15'+ of surge.

How far inland would a 15’ surge go before it dissipated to less than 1 foot?

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

This is something that Eric Webb brought up the past few days before Helene took off. I see some elements from the WSW drifting toward Helene on the mid-level WV that are originating from John's outflow to the southwest that could be affecting things. Mostly internal factors, but i think there could be something there. This is shear that's underneath the outflow layer. 

 

I was wondering as well. John virtually stalled and outflow sort of channeling towards Helene. Might be keeping the mid level dryness hanging around to the SW of Helene a bit longer than it looked two days ago.