Major Hurricane Helene

[weatherCCB]

Looking at latest visible satellite,

looks like it’s really getting ready to take off

 

 

 

[NeffsvilleWx]

1 minute ago, weatherCCB said:

Looking at latest visible satellite,

looks like it’s really getting ready to take off

 

 

 

y’all have been posting this since last evening.

[MUWX]

1 minute ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

y’all have been posting this since last evening.

People have been posting this since Monday. Eventually it’ll be right…. Maybe. 

[BoulderWX]

Model guidance honing in on high end cat 2 at landfall. Still think we can see low-end cat 3

 

[BYG Jacob]

Just now, MUWX said:

People have been posting this since Monday. Eventually it’ll be right…. Maybe. 

Helene is still dealing with mid level dry air, you can see it on WV and dropsondes

[MattPetrulli]

1 minute ago, BYG Jacob said:

Helene is still dealing with mid level dry air, you can see it on WV and dropsondes

It's subsidence from the VHTs

 

[OSUmetstud]

Much of Helene's issues seem internal to me. I guess there could be some poorly analyzed from Hurricane John undercutting it, but i think that's less likely. 

[Interstate]

17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This storm has quite an extensive PRE. The center is still West of Naples but the rainfall is already pushing into Kentucky and West Virginia. Fresh water flooding will be a huge deal on top of the wind and immediate coastal impacts.

I really wouldn't say the rain in GA and KY, or most of the SE are part of the hurricane directly... 

[BYG Jacob]

1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

It's subsidence from the VHTs

 

Not sure if that’s subsidence from convection, but RH values that low aren’t going to cut it for a major hurricane, and that is getting pulled into the core of the storm

[harrisale]

To me on the water vapour loop it looks like there's still some dry air wrapping into the southern part of the storm from the west/south. Not sure it'll have enough time to fully clear that out and ramp up to forecast intensity before landfall.

We'll see if the latest burst of convection on the north side of the storm can fully wrap around the centre, then we might have a bit more to work with before landfall.

[olafminesaw]

In terms of reducing the populated areas affected by 12'+surge, the current NHC track is ideal. Not a ton of populated towns East of track. ST Mark's is the potential exception as they are right on the cusp either way

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Much of Helene's issues seem internal to me. I guess there could be some poorly analyzed from Hurricane John undercutting it, but i think that's less likely. 

Cat 3 at landfall is definitely noteworthy but hopefully not catastrophic, so impact would be Idalia-like and in the same general area. Maybe somewhat more severe given the larger size. The inland impacts might be more spoken about in the end especially flood impact. I think it may be running out of time to really resolve these issues and make a run at Cat 4. 

[nvck]

You can really see the shape of the eyewall on the lightning map from blitzortung

[Eskimo Joe]

25 minutes ago, Thrasher Fan said:

I think things line up correctly with their overall track; just can't recall the PTC NWS office ever breaking things down on a county by county basis in this manner before. They are doing a good job of indicating the vast differences just 20-30 miles can make on intensity of the winds.

Ah gotcha. 

[konksw]

The haranguing about the exact landfall point feels like missing the forest for the trees with regards to the ultimate worst impacts of this very large storm. 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, konksw said:

The haranguing about the exact landfall point feels like missing the forest for the trees with regards to the ultimate worst impacts of this very large storm. 

The stranger thing is how far west they continue to be over GA

[OSUmetstud]

GFS continues the slowing trend. 

 

 

[TheDreamTraveler]

I feel like people forget that Helene will still be a strong storm just due to its monster size. Hurricane Ike looked like was a lot 'weaker' when it made landfall but it caused much more damage just due to its huge size compared to a smaller storm of its strength. Helene will be more destructive than a typical smaller hurricane at this category. Just because the wind speeds aren't super high the low pressure and large size/wind field are going to cause much more damage. I feel like people focus way too much on the max wind speed and what category the storm is when there's more that factor into its power and damage overall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, konksw said:

The haranguing about the exact landfall point feels like missing the forest for the trees with regards to the ultimate worst impacts of this very large storm. 

To a point...but I would argue that its pretty crucial given how lopsided the system will be in its impact. It will somewhat analagous to northeast storms in that respect.

[WxWatcher007]

Decided to hang in Perry for now but will reassess a little later when I have a better long term motion of the eye. For now, a bit far but obviously getting closer. 

Activity has definitely picked up around here as Helene approaches. Stay safe everyone in the path. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Decided to hang in Perry for now but will reassess a little later when I have a better long term motion of the eye. For now, a bit far but obviously getting closer. 

Activity has definitely picked up around here as Helene approaches. Stay safe everyone in the path. 

Stay there.

[beanskip]

So the latest IR frame appears to put the eye at 84.9W 24.8 N.

Is that actually the eye?

I ask because if you plot that on the 11 a.m. NHC track, it's already almost out of the cone to the right. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Stay there.

Yeah that’s what I’m thinking right now. 

[beanskip]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

To a point...but I would argue that its pretty crucial given how lopsides the system will be in its impact. It will somewhat analagous to northeast storms in that respect.

Totally agree- - 25-50 miles of eastery trend would  make a massive difference for TLH.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, beanskip said:

So the latest IR frame appears to put the eye at 84.9W 24.8 N.

Is that actually the eye?

I ask because if you plot that on the 11 a.m. NHC track, it's already almost out of the cone to the right. 

I think their LF Point is gonna be right, TBH it may even be a bit west of that but their motion afterwards through the body of FL into GA I'd be surprised if it did not verify 50 or so miles too far W

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, beanskip said:

Totally agree- - 25-50 miles of eastery trend would  make a massive difference for TLH.

I get his point, though...everyone should have prepared for 15'+ of surge.

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah that’s what I’m thinking right now. 

im guessing that's the most developed area in that region? You get a nice combo of right front quad wind there and some potential for the eastern eye. Maybe a better chance of eye in Newport or St Mark's but im also not sure of the viability of that area. 

[beanskip]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get his point, though...everyone should have prepared for 15'+ of surge.

Oh yeah, the surge story has been written. Can't change it now. But wind damage -- still some wiggle room depending on track. 

[Blizzard22]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think their LF Point is gonna be right, TBH it may even be a bit west of that but their motion afterwards through the body of FL into GA I'd be surprised if it did not verify 50 or so miles too far W

Is that normal for the NHC to be off by 50 miles ?

[BYG Jacob]

Took another gulp of dry air