Major Hurricane Helene

[Master of Disaster]

2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

It's elliptical and open sw now, but pretty large eye overall. 

F. OPEN SW
G. E13/38/22

 

Now that you point it out you can see the open area at the SW. Didn't even notice till you said that. 

[dan11295]

Right now the core isn't tight enough and with an eyewall open to the SW, any intensification will be slow.  Leaning toward low 950's minimal cat 3 at landfall, those obviously still with very significant impacts over a broad area.

[OSUmetstud]

2 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

Now that you point it out you can see the open area at the SW. Didn't even notice till you said that. 

You can see it better on the ir. There's a lack of cold cloud tops in the southern semi circle 

[Master of Disaster]

Lightning popping around the eyewall for the first time. 

 

[OSUmetstud]

[user13]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s almost a given with these eastern Gulf storms that they shift east in the end. Hopefully it doesn’t keep going too far. 

def a bit east of track already

[NorthHillsWx]

Lots of lighting in eastern eyewall 

[jbenedet]

The front is going to retrograde west, in a bent back fashion wrt time and latitude.

I think there’s an error trap to see the current position of the front as the furthest extent west Helene can travel. 
 

 

[nwohweather]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Prolific rainfall amounts incoming for Upstate South Carolina and Western North Carolina into the Smokies due to upsloping. 

It's not often you see a Tropical Storm Warning in Asheville, NC. They're currently under a flood warning at the moment around Gatlinburg anyways, I cannot imagine how bad things are going to get when this roars through. 

[Seminole]

1 hour ago, beanskip said:

And it's going to keep moving east. 

Completely agree. The eastern eyewall is at 85N and 25N. The past 4 hours the track has had more of a easterly component than northerly.  

[BretWx]

14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Prolific rainfall amounts incoming for Upstate South Carolina and Western North Carolina into the Smokies due to upsloping. 

9.6in and counting.... 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

It's not often you see a Tropical Storm Warning in Asheville, NC. They're currently under a flood warning at the moment around Gatlinburg anyways, I cannot imagine how bad things are going to get when this roars through. 

Wondering if Gatlinburg is west of the upslope zone on easterly flow. If so it might not be so bad there since from here on the rain will be coming on strong easterly flow and there will definitely be a downslope component in E TN. But places in NC/SC/GA that get heavy rain on that easterly flow-oh boy. 

[Thrasher Fan]

Seems to me like the models are really struggling with how and when the Fujiwhara effects take place with the pull west. Hard to blame anyone/anything on the challenge the post onshore track is becoming. The stalled/remnant cold front isnt helping matters either. A bunch of moving parts.

[OSUmetstud]

5 minutes ago, Seminole said:

Completely agree. The eastern eyewall is at 85N and 25N. The past 4 hours the track has had more of a easterly component than northerly.  

It's gained .6 degrees of latitude and has lost .2 degrees of longitude between the 12z nhc position and 14z recon center fix. It's moving nne. 

[Wannabehippie]

9 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

It's not often you see a Tropical Storm Warning in Asheville, NC. They're currently under a flood warning at the moment around Gatlinburg anyways, I cannot imagine how bad things are going to get when this roars through. 

I think it is new that they have inland hurricane/TS watches and warnings. We will see more of this in the future.

[wncsnow]

ICON is way east

[MattPetrulli]

Latest VDM is closed eyewall. Off to the races now

[Thrasher Fan]

Updates to the Tropical Storm Warnings have been hoisted in N Ga. Very different wording from county to county as you go from west to east.

[hawkeye_wx]

If Helene is going to jump to the next level, it needs to be able to wrap the deep convection all the way around the center, which it is having trouble doing this morning.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Thrasher Fan said:

Updates to the Tropical Storm Warnings have been hoisted in N Ga. Very different wording from county to county as you go from west to east.

What do you mean? Are the grids not matching up the warning text?

[Blizzard22]

Is anyone surprised they shifted the track a little west ?

[WishingForWarmWeather]

6 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Latest VDM is closed eyewall. Off to the races now

If it holds this time, anyway. It keeps closing and opening. I think maybe 4 times now since yesterday it’s cycled between closed circular, open elliptical, and back. If it holds onto keeping it closed then we may get some prolific strengthening. If not I think it just remains on this steady state to slight strengthening route it’s been on. 

[RU848789]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard22 said:

Is anyone surprised they shifted the track a little west ?

It's shifted east 15-20 miles...

[Blizzard22]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

It's shifted east 15-20 miles...

No its clearly shifted west. They did have it going just east of Atlanta and now it looks like it's going over Atlanta. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

18 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

ICON is way east

That track would be bad news for the East Bay of Tampa.

[RU848789]

1 minute ago, Blizzard22 said:

No its clearly shifted west. They did have it going just east of Atlanta and now it looks like it's going over Atlanta. 

I'm talking about landfall, which the vast majority are most interested in. 

[NJwx85]

28 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

It's not often you see a Tropical Storm Warning in Asheville, NC. They're currently under a flood warning at the moment around Gatlinburg anyways, I cannot imagine how bad things are going to get when this roars through. 

This storm has quite an extensive PRE. The center is still West of Naples but the rainfall is already pushing into Kentucky and West Virginia. Fresh water flooding will be a huge deal on top of the wind and immediate coastal impacts.

[Thrasher Fan]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What do you mean? Are the grids not matching up the warning text?

I think things line up correctly with their overall track; just can't recall the PTC NWS office ever breaking things down on a county by county basis in this manner before. They are doing a good job of indicating the vast differences just 20-30 miles can make on intensity of the winds.

[OSUmetstud]

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, Blizzard22 said:

Is anyone surprised they shifted the track a little west ?

 

7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

It's shifted east 15-20 miles...

At the landfall point it’s a touch west of the 5am advisory but still east of the 11pm advisory. We shall see…this is a nowcast at this point.