SnowGoose69 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: 12z early cycle models The core of those is mostly dead on the current NHC track, wonder if they will keep shifting east though. As you said, the ultimate LF point looks like its maybe on east end of that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The core of those is mostly dead on the current NHC track, wonder if they will keep shifting east though. As you said, the ultimate LF point looks like its maybe on east end of that The 06z gfs and 06z ecmwf shifted a bit northwest for what it's worth. Correction: southwest is more correct because they're a bit slower. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The 06z gfs and 06z ecmwf shifted a bit northwest for what it's worth. Shifted northwest ... from what? Oz GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The 06z gfs and 06z ecmwf shifted a bit northwest for what it's worth. 6z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, beanskip said: 6z GFS: Read his correction he made. Why you mad, son? 4 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Correction: southwest is more correct because they're a bit slower. Nope, this isn't right either for GFS -- it's slightly southEAST. Landfall at exact same time, just to the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, CoastalWx said: Read his correction he made. Why you mad, son? Not mad at all. Seems like if we are going to say a model run trended a certain direction or speed it ought to be right. 1 1 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, beanskip said: Nope, this isn't right either for GFS -- it's slightly southEAST. Landfall at exact same time, just to the right. Yeah about 15 miles southeast from 0z, basically Steinhatchee. If this does LF there, the surge in cedar key could be devastating for sure. Even folks up the US19 coast from Tampa get a lot of water on that track and approach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 The debate on model validity is interesting but less relevant as we are quickly shifting to now casting and obs phases. I appreciate the expertise and input shared here to help understand what’s happening and what to expect with Helene. 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Not that I encourage using the HRRR for this right now, but check out the srfc wind gusts for this. I think the idea of what it shows makes sense. A very large windfield to the east that rips into SC. Also, the backside of this with the pressure rises in the ATL area likely bring the strongest winds there on the backside. But man the rains in the high country of NC and SC. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 A lot of Mets are talking about the eastward shift they have noticed and they expect NHC to move more east at 11 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, beanskip said: Nope, this isn't right either for GFS -- it's slightly southEAST. Landfall at exact same time, just to the right. Looking at the T+6 h forecast from both the GFS and ECMWF models. It corrected northwest from the previous 00z run. Also, the 06z ECMWF landfall location is definitely west of the 00z ecmwf landfall location. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 5 minutes ago, beanskip said: Not mad at all. Seems like if we are going to say a model run trended a certain direction or speed it ought to be right. No actually, that's not right - I am a little peeved. This board used to be a place where a met wouldn't mock you for asking questions and trying learn. I want to understand the apparent disconnect between the spaghetti plots and operational runs - not just that there IS a difference but WHY? I want to learn and understand why the operational Euro -- the KING -- is outside the NHC cone 18 hours from landfall. I've been on this board for more than a decade. I think i've earned some respect and some continuing education. Instead -- "get out of here." So yeah, if my stuff is going to be ridiculed, you better get the trends right or I'm going to call it out. 4 1 1 1 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Looking at the T+6 h forecast from both the GFS and ECMWF models. It corrected northwest from the previous 00z run. Also, the 06z ECMWF landfall location is definitely west of the 00z ecmwf landfall location. Looking at Key West radar since we have the eastern eye wall in range, it’s more or less moving due N at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 FWIW both NAMS landfall around Perry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: FWIW both NAMS landfall around Perry Pretty concerning for Valdosta if they are on the eastern eyewall. It’s going to be hauling through there with bigtime winds. If this gets to major today might be a landmark event there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 3 minutes ago, beanskip said: No actually, that's not right - I am a little peeved. This board used to be a place where a met wouldn't mock you for asking questions and trying learn. I want to understand the apparent disconnect between the spaghetti plots and operational runs - not just that there IS a difference but WHY? I want to learn and understand why the operational Euro -- the KING -- is outside the NHC cone 18 hours from landfall. I've been on this board for more than a decade. I think i've earned some respect and some continuing education. Instead -- "get out of here." So yeah, if my stuff is going to be ridiculed, you better get the trends right or I'm going to call it out. It is far from the king and virtually unusable lately. The spaghetti plots and globals like GFS and Euro also have different physics etc. Perhaps the more complicated interactions with the short wave troughs favored the globals a bit this go around. But, over the years I've also learned not to discount the tropical models. I know in New England, when they sniff that east trend with the westerlies, forget it. It's over. That's why hopefully humans can add value and try to adjust the forecast accordingly. There is also high stakes here and you need to weigh all of this when doing a forecast. It's easy for weenies to make a call sitting back at their desk..but it's a whole other level when your forecast is driving evacuations with billions of dollars in assets on the line as well as human lives. 8 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 52 minutes ago, cptcatz said: I'm gonna get weenied here but satellite looks like it's making a significant northeast motion and making a bee line into the penninsula. I'm calling landfall around Cedar Key. If it doesn't turn more north, the surge in Tampa could be even worse than thought. Nah. You’re not a weenie. Helene actual vs NHC track 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: FWIW both NAMS landfall around Perry In terms of location, that would be best case scenario placing TLH and ATL on the western side. If it were to be closer to Panama City or Port St Joe, the impacts would be significantly worse. Will be interesting to see the details ironed out over the next 6-12 hours but hopeful this stays far enough east to mitigate some of the impacts for the most populated areas in the cone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Latest extrap pressures still in 962 mb range been steady state pressure wise past few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 The NHC cone only represents 5-year average track error at each forecast point in time. TCs will verify outside of the cone from forecast about 1/3rd of the time. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 11 minutes ago, beanskip said: is outside the NHC cone 18 hours from landfall. it is important to understand that the NHC cone is the 1σ uncertainty envelope based on track errors over the last 5 years. So we expect the actual track to fall outside the cone about 32% of time. It would also be the expectation that of all the models available to consider some would show tracks outside of the cone as well. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Currently has a Cat 3 look on IR. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 7 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: Nah. You’re not a weenie. Helene actual vs NHC track That's a wobble. This thing is headed to Apalachee Bay. Idalia smacked around Valdosta pretty well last year and this looks like it could be worse. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 raw advanced dvorak is in the high 5s but i would really like to see the southern eyewall get going to see more intensification in earnest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Currently has a Cat 3 look on IR. I think we’re going to see her ramp up fairly nicely the next 4-6 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erbsonci Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 20 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Yeah about 15 miles southeast from 0z, basically Steinhatchee. If this does LF there, the surge in cedar key could be devastating for sure. Even folks up the US19 coast from Tampa get a lot of water on that track and approach. At least in North County Pinellas, US 19 is the highest ground, although there are areas around it which are more low closer to the water. Treasure Island and Venice (beach areas further south in Pinellas and past Sarasota, respectively) are completely flooded out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, erbsonci said: At least in North County Pinellas, US 19 is the highest ground, although there are areas around it which are more low closer to the water. Treasure Island and Venice (beach areas further south in Pinellas and past Sarasota, respectively) are completely flooded out. Yep, those spots down near Laurel and Osprey are low lying near Venice Beach. Some sit below sea level. I was just there this week, got out of town this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: That's a wobble. This thing is headed to Apalachee Bay. Idalia smacked around Valdosta pretty well last year and this looks like it could be worse. Yeah - definitely is going to wobble especially as the VHTs circling circling and dragging that center all over. I just meant they weren’t seeing things - it’s on the east side of things right now. It’ll likely course correct back towards the west and on track! those poor folks can’t catch a break in that area. So many in the past few years. And in model fantasy land there’s another behind Helene land falling in a very similar location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 The 3KM NAM continues to show that tendency of not wanting to capture and hook til its 965-970 or weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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