Major Hurricane Helene

[beanskip]

5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

The spaghetti plots there is just the operational models corrected for current position to get the best forecast possible. The euro gfs and the tropical models are all there getting the same adjustments. Its been done for years and it improves forecast error. 

These are yesterday's 5 day track and today's. It's barely moved. 

You conveniently skipped the 7 p.m advisory which shifted so far west the outskirts of Panama City were in the cone. 

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Seeing more tor warnings pop. Maybe a CC drop west of Hilton Head.

Going to be a lot of quick spin ups today East of the track.

[Hotair]

The IBM GRAF model has this storm headed on a more easterly track and making landfall towards the direction of Gainesville!

[NeonPeon]

I think what is happening is what happens when relatively small differences make massive differences to your back yard. I.e. yes, there some shifts and uncertainty as there always is, but you haven't noticed them to the same degree because they are trivial when it isn't you. From a broad perspective this looks like a VERY well forecasted storm. Like, the track we are seeing now is more or less where it was forecast to end up several days ago, which is exactly what you want - tons of time to prepare, tons of time to raise awareness. That more or less matters much more if it's your back yard being affected more or less.

[NorthHillsWx]

Going into beast mode once the CDO wraps around, which it’s doing. Downplay intensity all you want, I think this thing is right on schedule. I’m going 110-115 kt peak still and I Believe it comes at the landfall advisory 

[beanskip]

Just now, NeonPeon said:

I think what is happening is what happens when relatively small differences make massive differences to your back yard. I.e. yes, there some shifts and uncertainty as there always is, but you haven't noticed them to the same degree because from a broad perspective this looks like a VERY well forecasted storm. Like, the track we are seeing now is more or less where it was forecast to end up several days ago, which is exactly what you want - tons of time to prepare, tons of time to raise awareness. That more or less matters much more if it's your back yard being affected more or less.

I agree with this generally, but I certainly can't remember an operational Euro track being outside of the NHC cone less than 24 hours from landfall. 

[NorthHillsWx]

This system has strengthened 30 kts since 5 am yesterday and the pace hasn’t slowed. And that’s while undergoing an ERC and developing a core. Now that’s out of the way, I only expect the rate of strengthening to increase through the day. Only 15 kts a major makes…

[dan11295]

Numerous 40-45 mph gusts along west coast of Florida from Naples-Tampa within the last hour, just to give you an idea of the wind field.

[cptcatz]

I'm gonna get weenied here but satellite looks like it's making a significant northeast motion and making a bee line into the penninsula. I'm calling landfall around Cedar Key. If it doesn't turn more north, the surge in Tampa could be even worse than thought. 

[Windspeed]

This system has strengthened 30 kts since 5 am yesterday and the pace hasn’t slowed. And that’s while undergoing an ERC and developing a core. Now that’s out of the way, I only expect the rate of strengthening to increase through the day. Only 15 kts a major makes…

Not even sure that was an ERC. I just think Helene has many of the same characteristics as WPAC typhoons that form out of large monsoonal gyres. With a large RMW embedded in lower surface background pressure regime, it takes time for a large eyewall band to consolidate and strengthen enough to kill off the nascent core hot garbage cells before cranking may begin. Otherwise, all the ingredients are there. High OHC, mass divergence aloft, jet streak. Just takes time; and hopefully, enough that Helene will run out of it before deep pressure falls and gradient-induced RMW contraction will allow MPI to be approached prior to landfall.

[Hotair]

Update from GRAF model

 

 

[OSUmetstud]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1839293980367864089?t=6asHJsTir6tWlG6viX593Q&s=19

[schoeppeya]

We are at a place now where if we clear out a solid eye the pressure will drop very quickly and suddenly be on track or overperforming models. I think its wayyyy beyond too early to say its going to underperform until something clearly disrupts the continued organizational process. 

[BoulderWX]

Meanwhile on land…

[Hotair]

[OSUmetstud]

06z models were a bit fast relative to the 12z nhc center fix. So id expect a landfall a bit closer to 03z than 00z. For example, the gfs was a bit north of 25, while the center fix is 24.5. 

 

[Prospero]

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

06z models were a bit fast relative to the 12z nhc center fix. So id expect a landfall a bit closer to 03z than 00z. 

 

That will make for a longer more stressful night here in Tampa Bay.

[OSUmetstud]

1 minute ago, Prospero said:

That will make for a longer more stressful night here in Tampa Bay.

Hope for the best for you. 

[beanskip]

Latest fix of the center from recon: 

2504N 08537W

That's on the right side of the 8am NHC track. 

[OSUmetstud]

12z early cycle models

 

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

06z models were a bit fast relative to the 12z nhc center fix. So id expect a landfall a bit closer to 03z than 00z. For example, the gfs was a bit north of 25, while the center fix is 24.5. 

 

I have noticed that too. That is very bad for us in the foothills and mountains for NC. 

[CoastalWx]

Note that the storm will follow a more parabolic shape between points there on the models. It's not going to abruptly change direction at each point on those models. 

[Floydbuster]

Helene looks very ominous on visible. Don't rule out a Category 4.

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

12z early cycle models

 

The core of those is mostly dead on the current NHC track, wonder if they will keep shifting east though.  As you said, the ultimate LF point looks like its maybe on east end of that

[OSUmetstud]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The core of those is mostly dead on the current NHC track, wonder if they will keep shifting east though.  As you said, the ultimate LF point looks like its maybe on east end of that

The 06z gfs and 06z ecmwf shifted a bit northwest for what it's worth. 

Correction: southwest is more correct because they're a bit slower. 

[beanskip]

4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

The 06z gfs and 06z ecmwf shifted a bit northwest for what it's worth. 

Shifted northwest ... from what?

Oz GFS:

 

[beanskip]

5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

The 06z gfs and 06z ecmwf shifted a bit northwest for what it's worth. 

6z GFS:

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, beanskip said:

6z GFS:

 

Read his correction he made. Why you mad, son?

[beanskip]

7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

 

Correction: southwest is more correct because they're a bit slower. 

Nope, this isn't right either for GFS -- it's slightly southEAST. Landfall at exact same time, just to the right. 

[beanskip]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Read his correction he made. Why you mad, son?

Not mad at all. Seems like if we are going to say a model run trended a certain direction or speed it ought to be right.