CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, beanskip said: I've been tracking storms for 30 years. The operational Euro has always ruled the roost, not these spaghetti plots. When did that change? Why are the spaghetti plots so out of line with all the operational runs? You said before the tropical models were driving this, but they are also now on the far eastern edge of the cone and have trended east a lot more than 20 miles. The NHC track is surely going to keep moving east at 11 and when it does, ALL of the 18z spaghetti tracks will either be west of the center track and/or completely out of the cone. The above point haven't been explained AT ALL. Those tropical models usually are closer to being correct. The globals like the gfs and euro (euro has been shit lately) are good..but I believe what Osumetstud posted, showed higher position errors vs the tropical models. However, when the globals and tropical models differ this close to landfall, usually one set sort of caves closer to the other. Indeed the early cycle 12z stuff ticked east again. Sometimes this stuff happens. That's why we as humans hopefully can add value and not let the machines take over. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 11 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: This was all explained yesterday. Hasn't the track only moved like 20 miles east? The nhc uses the corrected models because it's the best tools we have. What else do you want them to use? I mean, show me a storm where less than 24 hours from landfall, the most recent run of the operational Euro shows a landfall OUTSIDE THE NHC CONE! Like, what is happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 5 minutes ago, beanskip said: I've been tracking storms for 30 years. The operational Euro has always ruled the roost, not these spaghetti plots. When did that change? Why are the spaghetti plots so out of line with all the operational runs? You said before the tropical models were driving this, but they are also now on the far eastern edge of the cone and have trended east a lot more than 20 miles. The NHC track is surely going to keep moving east at 11 and when it does, ALL of the 18z spaghetti tracks will either be west of the center track and/or completely out of the cone. The above point haven't been explained AT ALL. The spaghetti plots there is just the operational models corrected for current position to get the best forecast possible. The euro gfs and the tropical models are all there getting the same adjustments. Its been done for years and it improves forecast error. These are yesterday's 5 day track and today's. It's barely moved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 14 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: This was all explained yesterday. Hasn't the track only moved like 20 miles east? The nhc uses the corrected models because it's the best tools we have. What else do you want them to use? I think the current NHC track is 40 miles or so E of the 5pm yesterday Its east of ATL by a nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I think the current NHC track is 40 miles or so E of the 5pm yesterday Its east of ATL by a nose And it's going to keep moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think the current NHC track is 40 miles or so E of the 5pm yesterday Its east of ATL by a nose I'm talking about the landfall location. It's barely moved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 It was posted here a couple of years ago from someone with inside information that the NHC relies heavily on TVCN and IVCN for track and intensity forecasts respectively. For those that don't know these are the so called consensus ensemble suites. At least up through 2023 TVCN was comprised of GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, COAMPS, and HWRF while IVCN was comprised of SHIP, LGEM, COAMPS, HWRF, and HMON. I'm not sure if this has been updated for the 2024 season. Does anyone know if TVCN/IVCN have changed for the 2024 season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The spaghetti plots there is just the operational models corrected for current position to get the best forecast possible. The euro gfs and the tropical models are all there getting the same adjustments. Its been done for years and it improves forecast error. These are yesterday's 5 day track and today's. It's barely moved. You conveniently skipped the 7 p.m advisory which shifted so far west the outskirts of Panama City were in the cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Seeing more tor warnings pop. Maybe a CC drop west of Hilton Head. Going to be a lot of quick spin ups today East of the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 The IBM GRAF model has this storm headed on a more easterly track and making landfall towards the direction of Gainesville! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 I think what is happening is what happens when relatively small differences make massive differences to your back yard. I.e. yes, there some shifts and uncertainty as there always is, but you haven't noticed them to the same degree because they are trivial when it isn't you. From a broad perspective this looks like a VERY well forecasted storm. Like, the track we are seeing now is more or less where it was forecast to end up several days ago, which is exactly what you want - tons of time to prepare, tons of time to raise awareness. That more or less matters much more if it's your back yard being affected more or less. 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Going into beast mode once the CDO wraps around, which it’s doing. Downplay intensity all you want, I think this thing is right on schedule. I’m going 110-115 kt peak still and I Believe it comes at the landfall advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, NeonPeon said: I think what is happening is what happens when relatively small differences make massive differences to your back yard. I.e. yes, there some shifts and uncertainty as there always is, but you haven't noticed them to the same degree because from a broad perspective this looks like a VERY well forecasted storm. Like, the track we are seeing now is more or less where it was forecast to end up several days ago, which is exactly what you want - tons of time to prepare, tons of time to raise awareness. That more or less matters much more if it's your back yard being affected more or less. I agree with this generally, but I certainly can't remember an operational Euro track being outside of the NHC cone less than 24 hours from landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 This system has strengthened 30 kts since 5 am yesterday and the pace hasn’t slowed. And that’s while undergoing an ERC and developing a core. Now that’s out of the way, I only expect the rate of strengthening to increase through the day. Only 15 kts a major makes… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Numerous 40-45 mph gusts along west coast of Florida from Naples-Tampa within the last hour, just to give you an idea of the wind field. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 I'm gonna get weenied here but satellite looks like it's making a significant northeast motion and making a bee line into the penninsula. I'm calling landfall around Cedar Key. If it doesn't turn more north, the surge in Tampa could be even worse than thought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 This system has strengthened 30 kts since 5 am yesterday and the pace hasn’t slowed. And that’s while undergoing an ERC and developing a core. Now that’s out of the way, I only expect the rate of strengthening to increase through the day. Only 15 kts a major makes…Not even sure that was an ERC. I just think Helene has many of the same characteristics as WPAC typhoons that form out of large monsoonal gyres. With a large RMW embedded in lower surface background pressure regime, it takes time for a large eyewall band to consolidate and strengthen enough to kill off the nascent core hot garbage cells before cranking may begin. Otherwise, all the ingredients are there. High OHC, mass divergence aloft, jet streak. Just takes time; and hopefully, enough that Helene will run out of it before deep pressure falls and gradient-induced RMW contraction will allow MPI to be approached prior to landfall. 7 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Update from GRAF model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1839293980367864089?t=6asHJsTir6tWlG6viX593Q&s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 We are at a place now where if we clear out a solid eye the pressure will drop very quickly and suddenly be on track or overperforming models. I think its wayyyy beyond too early to say its going to underperform until something clearly disrupts the continued organizational process. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Meanwhile on land… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 06z models were a bit fast relative to the 12z nhc center fix. So id expect a landfall a bit closer to 03z than 00z. For example, the gfs was a bit north of 25, while the center fix is 24.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, OSUmetstud said: 06z models were a bit fast relative to the 12z nhc center fix. So id expect a landfall a bit closer to 03z than 00z. That will make for a longer more stressful night here in Tampa Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, Prospero said: That will make for a longer more stressful night here in Tampa Bay. Hope for the best for you. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Latest fix of the center from recon: 2504N 08537W That's on the right side of the 8am NHC track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 12z early cycle models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: 06z models were a bit fast relative to the 12z nhc center fix. So id expect a landfall a bit closer to 03z than 00z. For example, the gfs was a bit north of 25, while the center fix is 24.5. I have noticed that too. That is very bad for us in the foothills and mountains for NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Note that the storm will follow a more parabolic shape between points there on the models. It's not going to abruptly change direction at each point on those models. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Helene looks very ominous on visible. Don't rule out a Category 4. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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