Major Hurricane Helene

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Atlanta still sitting on the fence between a real nasty hit and more of a nuisance. The official forecast would point to more of a nuisance there for now with the center passing just east of the metro.

Yeah I think ATl and perhaps TLH dodged one. West side of this will certainly be weaker I think. 

[WxWatcher007]

Seeing more tor warnings pop. Maybe a CC drop west of Hilton Head.

[kvegas-wx]

7 minutes ago, Seminole said:

https://www.blueparrotsgi.com/multimedia/livecam.htm

Live webcam on St. George Island 

 

 

I see a blue hut.  Brings back many fond memories of the blue shed.  Will it survive?  (Likely not)

[beanskip]

More east trending by HAFS-A, B and HMON. All three now cross 84W before making landfall, which puts them in western Taylor County. 

Also fascinating to note that the Wednesday 8 pm advisory "center track line" is, at 5 a.m. Thursday, the western boundary of the cone. 

[BoulderWX]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I think ATl and perhaps TLH dodged one. West side of this will certainly be weaker I think. 

Really hoping this is the case because as of yesterday it looked like a worst case scenario for both areas. Way too early to tell but if they can remain on the west side, that would be a saving grace. Regardless, I think it’s way more than a nuisance either way, but will be *less* devastating if the can remain on the western side. 

[jm1220]

Just now, beanskip said:

More east trending by HAFS-A, B and HMON. All three now cross 84W before making landfall, which puts them in western Taylor County. 

Also fascinating to note that the Wednesday 8 pm advisory "center track line" is, at 5 a.m. Thursday, the western boundary of the cone. 

If it can get east of Tallahassee that would be great news for them. Very little time for it to weaken before reaching there. Maybe there’s a “sweet spot” this can get to before it trends so far east the effects on Tampa Bay get much worse. 

[southmdwatcher]

With the 500mb upper low seemingly stationary over western KY and TN, wouldn't that force the track of Helene more than a little bit east of Tallahassee and Atlanta?? Thought this upper low was supposed to be cut off over Arkansas or Oklahoma to allow the western paths.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, BoulderWX said:

Really hoping this is the case because as of yesterday it looked like a worst case scenario for both areas. Way too early to tell but if they can remain on the west side, that would be a saving grace. Regardless, I think it’s way more than a nuisance either way, but will be *less* devastating if the can remain on the western side. 

I was never really sold on the west of TLH  to ATL tracks though. I did get a little nervous when those tropical models were stubborn, but it looks like they’ll tick  east enough to avoid worst-case.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Really hoping this is the case because as of yesterday it looked like a worst case scenario for both areas. Way too early to tell but if they can remain on the west side, that would be a saving grace. Regardless, I think it’s way more than a nuisance either way, but will be *less* devastating if the can remain on the western side. 

The 925mb winds are fairly unimpressive on the west side of this once it reaches ATL’s latitude.  I could see them not even hitting 40kts if this passes 30-50 miles east of them.  There isn’t a big high to the north over the Oh Valley or Midwest so you don’t really have anything aiding the pressure gradient with the storm once it gets 100 miles or more inland so really only near and barely east of the center would likely see winds capable of very nasty damage but ATL itself even with 35-40kts could see probably a few hundred thousand lose power 

[WxWatcher007]

Still have time for wobbles and changes west or east. See the image from the poster yesterday that had a mean 12 hour track error of 22 miles. It’s nothing in the global scheme of things but makes a huge difference locally. 

I didn’t buy the west tracks either but I won’t feel confident until hours from now.

[TPAwx]

25 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Water is already coming into Gulfport.

https://thegabber.com/gulfport-florida-beach-webcam/

Decided to shelter in place vs going to our usual comfy inland hotel.  Water main break in the neighborhood late last night and lost power a few hours ago.  

Light band just passed thru and breeze is picking up.

[CoastalWx]

The wind issue to me is east of TLH into the areas near and E of Valdosta to east of Macon and on NNE to western SC. Peak winds anyways. Macon May get it good.

[CoastalWx]

Meanwhile mtns of SC will slide into the Atlantic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, MattPetrulli said:

Thought so too, but NHC is still using the catastrophic wind wording which is used for category 4+ only so I think it's just the forecast point.

What do they have to gain by removing that at this point??

Zilch....an immense amount to lose.

I'm waiting to hear @Randomgirl's thoughts...

[Randomgirl]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What do they have to gain by removing that at this point??

Zilch....an immense amount to lose.

I'm waiting to hear @Randomgirl's thoughts...

Hey, I'm just a lurker. Not sure why you'd want my opinion on this.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Randomgirl said:

Hey, I'm just a lurker. Not sure why you'd want my opinion on this.

Inclusivity reigns supreme.

[NorthHillsWx]

Athens to Clemson to Asheville…. Get ready 

[WxWatcher007]

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene 
is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big 
Bend coast this evening.  Weakening is expected after landfall, but 
Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, 
especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the 
southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the 
southern Appalachians.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km). The Key West Naval Air Station recently reported
sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a wind gust of 55 mph (89
km/h).  An observation in Sand Key recently reported sustained 
winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the 
NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 960 mb 
(28.35 inches).

 

[buckeyefan1]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Meanwhile mtns of SC will slide into the Atlantic.

Indeed. MBY is up to 5” and counting, while those just to my north are reporting almost 7” 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Its going to need to ramp up pretty quickly from here on out or the worse case scenario with respect to surge may not play out, regardless.....even a last moment intensificaiton may not have time to gather as much surge, though the shelf is pretty shallow in the big bend region...

[BretWx]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Meanwhile mtns of SC will slide into the Atlantic.

Almost 8in here so far outside of Hendersonville, NC. Roads closing all over the place.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Indeed. MBY is up to 5” and counting, while those just to my north are reporting almost 7” 

 

Just now, BretWx said:

Almost 8in here so far outside of Hendersonville, NC. Roads closing all over the place.

It's going to get pretty bad there. Hate to say it.

[dan11295]

VDM supports 963 mb,, though the 8 am advisory is 960 mb. brief opening of the W eyewall may have halted intensification temporarily. 

[Met1985]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Meanwhile mtns of SC will slide into the Atlantic.

Yeah we've got major flooding already with several spots already seeing 6 to 14 inches of rainfall before Helene even arrives. That's in WNC in and around Asheville. 

[Met1985]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

 

It's going to get pretty bad there. Hate to say it.

Your right and we've prepared for it.

[lilj4425]

5 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Indeed. MBY is up to 5” and counting, while those just to my north are reporting almost 7” 

That bad microburst that went through Greenville two days ago weakened a lot of trees which doesn’t help matters. 

[David Reimer]

1 minute ago, dan11295 said:

VDM supports 963 mb,, though the 8 am advisory is 960 mb. brief opening of the W eyewall may have halted intensification temporarily. 

Agreed and was initially confused about the 960. However, I realized they're dropping two drones in the eye on this mission. Perhaps the drone is providing in-situ observations and that's where they got that. Otherwise, idk either. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, dan11295 said:

VDM supports 963 mb,, though the 8 am advisory is 960 mb. brief opening of the W eyewall may have halted intensification temporarily. 

 

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its going to need to ramp up pretty quickly from here on out or the worse case scenario with respect to surge may not play out, regardless.....even a last moment intensificaiton may not have time to gather as much surge, though the shelf is pretty shallow in the big bend region...

It's ramping up now. Large CDO structure developing and wrapping around 

[lilj4425]