Major Hurricane Helene

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like an east shift a bit and weaker by NHC.

They do call for additional strengthening in that 6hr period after reaching 115mph, but it’s unclear what they think the peak will be. Maybe down a bit but if we’re going from 90 to 115 today I’m guessing there’s going to be some intensity nowcasting happening. 

[MattPetrulli]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like an east shift a bit and weaker by NHC.

Thought so too, but NHC is still using the catastrophic wind wording which is used for category 4+ only so I think it's just the forecast point.

[OSUmetstud]

85 kt flight level in se quad on current pass. That's the highest yet. 

[WxWatcher007]

Extrapolated center pressure of 963.3mb. On the last pass it was 967.7mb. Awaiting dropsonde for confirmed pressure. 

[dan11295]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Extrapolated center pressure of 963.3mb. On the last pass it was 967.7mb. Awaiting dropsonde for confirmed pressure. 

Also getting cold cloud tops almost surrounding the CDO now. Clearly at least steadily strengthening now.

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Thought so too, but NHC is still using the catastrophic wind wording which is used for category 4+ only so I think it's just the forecast point.

I think for the surge itself that wording is definitely needed for a 3. 

[CoastalWx]

Definitely looks better on IR. So she’s starting the process.

[OSUmetstud]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think for the surge itself that wording is definitely needed for a 3. 

They can cover their ass a bit. The 18z weakening makes sense to the current state but it could still hit 4 before landfall 7-8 hours later. 

[WxWatcher007]

965mb with an 11kt wind on the center sonde, so ~964mb. First pass had a 970mb pressure. 
 

Dropsonde in the SE eyewall had 69kt at the surface but for the first time we’re seeing 87kt at 925 and 97kt at 850mb.

[OSUmetstud]

So 2 mb drop in 97 minutes between sondes 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

They can cover their ass a bit. The 18z weakening makes sense to the current state but it could still hit 4 before landfall 7-8 hours later. 

Yeah I’m sure they’re probably being careful here. I get it. 

[WxWatcher007]

Latest VDM now shows a closed circular eye at 32nm diameter. 8°C temperature contrast. Last VDM had concentric eyewalls open in the NE with the outer eyewall also at 32nm and a 6° temp contrast.

Would like to see an even more organized eye at the next pass to know these changes have taken root (though it looks like it has). 
 

Edited to add: the western side looks weak but the eastern half is looking robust on both IR and recon.

[dan11295]

Helene has all the ingredients for significant wind impacts far inland. Large wind field, fast forward motion, and potentially intensifying until landfall.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Latest VDM now shows a closed circular eye at 32nm diameter. 8°C temperature contrast. Last VDM had concentric eyewalls open in the NE with the outer eyewall also at 32nm and a 6° temp contrast.

Would like to see an even more organized eye at the next pass to know these changes have taken root (though it looks like it has). 
 

Edited to add: the western side looks weak but the eastern half is looking robust on both IR and recon.

Not surprising given forward speed and interaction with synoptic environment . This was clearly modeled as well. I think that’s why this never goes full on cat 5. Se quadrant is going to be a prolific surge producer. 

[Kevin Reilly]

24 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Not surprising given forward speed and interaction with synoptic environment . This was clearly modeled as well. I think that’s why this never goes full on cat 5. Se quadrant is going to be a prolific surge producer. 

Yes, a prolific surge producer on the Southeast side and east side all the way to the coast in some cases pretty devastating.

[beanskip]

If you want to have a little fun, plot the lat/long of the lowest pressure reading from this recon run on to the 2 am NHC track. 
 

Also, 6z hurricane models running. HAFS-B 13 mb higher than last run through just 9 hours. 

[WxWatcher007]

Eyewall starting to show up on Key West radar. 

[dan11295]

7 minutes ago, beanskip said:

If you want to have a little fun, plot the lat/long of the lowest pressure reading from this recon run on to the 2 am NHC track. 
 

Also, 6z hurricane models running. HAFS-B 13 mb higher than last run through just 9 hours. 

The HAFS has been too aggressive with intensification of Helene in general so maybe getting a bit closer to reality.

[NorthHillsWx]

Flight level winds way up this pass, over 100 kts

[WxWatcher007]

There are two recon missions ongoing now, and one that is making an east to west pass is reporting FL winds between 99-104kt. Intensification is still going.

[OSUmetstud]

The noaa3 plan recon is at 750mb not 700mb but it I think it still supports about 90 kt surface. 

[BoulderWX]

Glad to see this didn’t explode overnight but seems like it’s getting its act together this AM. prayers and best wishes for all in its path. Will be a fascinating day of tracking. 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[BoulderWX]

Wild advisory image. 

[NeonPeon]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

Glad to see this didn’t explode overnight but seems like it’s getting its act together this AM. prayers and best wishes for all in its path. Will be a fascinating day of tracking. 

On the no explosion thing, this hurricane has improved in structure quite rapidly. I mean, about 14 hours ago it had very little convection around the eye. 12 hours ago it was a ragged spirally mess due to dry air etc.  I think the rI is trivial compared to the structural stuff. It's just whether there is enough time left, and there seems to be, and not enough time for anything but strengthening.

 

[Prospero]

Water is already coming into Gulfport.

https://thegabber.com/gulfport-florida-beach-webcam/

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Latest VDM now shows a closed circular eye at 32nm diameter. 8°C temperature contrast. Last VDM had concentric eyewalls open in the NE with the outer eyewall also at 32nm and a 6° temp contrast.

Would like to see an even more organized eye at the next pass to know these changes have taken root (though it looks like it has). 
 

Edited to add: the western side looks weak but the eastern half is looking robust on both IR and recon.

Open to the west now. 

[eyewall]

Atlanta still sitting on the fence between a real nasty hit and more of a nuisance. The official forecast would point to more of a nuisance there for now with the center passing just east of the metro.

[Seminole]

https://www.blueparrotsgi.com/multimedia/livecam.htm

Live webcam on St. George Island 

 

 

[Terrier]

St Marks NWR lighthouse weatherSTEM:  https://wakulla.weatherstem.com/fswnstmarks?