Major Hurricane Helene

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s definitely fighting some dry air.  Can see it on IR. 

 

 

[BYG Jacob]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s definitely fighting some dry air.  Can see it on IR. 

Looks like it finally managed to pinch it off, just a matter of shoving out whatever is left.

[StantonParkHoya]

10 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Really banking on that Fujiwara from the ULL.  That's the wildcard, IMO.  

Yeah, the physics model is making gambles 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, BYG Jacob said:

Looks like it finally managed to pinch it off, just a matter of shoving out whatever is left.

It’s got the zit looking towers going up. You want to see more widespread deeper convection. Helene suffering from an acne problem. 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

 

 

Maybe I’m misjudging but seems like it’s having a really tough time organizing a central CDO, looks ragged and like it can’t wrap completely around. Might be the dry air issue or something else. 

[MUWX]

I’ll be interested to see if the NHC waivers at all in their next update. It has a long ways to go to reach the forecast for how mediocre it looks now. Dry air is doing a number on it, and big storms never really may wrap up quickly. I have my doubts that this gets to cat 4 before land fall. 

[Amped]

Just my opinion but it looks like the dry air is on its last stand and the banding structure is looks robust and locked in place. Usually this indicates the start of a 12=24hr RI period.

[bdgwx]

The last pass through the eye was 973 mb extrapolated...no change in the last 80 minutes. The evidence still points to another round of intensification later tonight. It might be worth noting that although RI probabilities dropped on the 0Z cycle they are still high climatologically speaking.

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[MUWX]

I’m not sure recon even supports current NHC winds. Category 4 becoming much less likely. 

[franklin NCwx]

54 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm going to Bonaire, GA.  Flight leaves at 5pm (if it isn't cancelled) landing around 6.  Thoughts for that area?  Never been in a cane before and I'm not even gonna be fake....I hope we get something out of it.

You would experience more in north Georgia 

[wthrmn654]

Just now, MUWX said:

I’m not sure recon even supports current NHC winds. Category 4 becoming much less likely. 

Maybe be a little premature to make any calls like that just yet.  By tomorrow 8 am if nothing has really changed by then I'd start to have doubts.  

[Radtechwxman]

Dry air intrusions seem to be the story this season. That dry air made it into the core and really did a number on Helene getting organized. Francine struggled its whole life with dry air. Never could shake it. The high octane ocean and favorable outflow aloft will still support intensification but if the dry air can never fully be purged Helene won't hit her ceiling. Probably more a low end 3 maybe mid 3 at best. Regardless still will be devastating impact. Curious to see what will happen tonight over Loop Current. 

[wthrmn654]

Last pass of 2nd recon 970mb it looks like.

[bdgwx]

And the AF plane just went through with 971 mb extrapolated. If we split the difference between NOAA and AF that's 972 mb. Maybe it's almost ready to intensify.

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[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I’m not sure recon even supports current NHC winds. Category 4 becoming much less likely. 

 

[StantonParkHoya]

What are TC examples of low SLP with modest winds?

[Floydbuster]

I just hope Helene isn't doing what Michael did, which was basically to stay in check until the final 12-15 hours and then begin to explode.

[downeastnc]

14 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

What are TC examples of low SLP with modest winds?

 

I was in the SW eye of Isabel and the pressure was 970mb and  peak wind gust for the event was 51 mph....though on the NE side of the huge eye they got absolutely hammered with gust into the 80-90 range at the same time...but in our case the pressure did not indicate our winds, in Fran for instance our pressure never got close to 970 but we gusted to 110..

[WxWatcher007]

 

[MattPetrulli]

Kinda getting Ida vibes. Ida kinda struggled/gradually intensified throughout the day before LF with dry air I believe (though this dry air is more significant I think) then exploded over like a 12 hour period. Granted, Ida was smaller than what Helene is/will be, thus exacerbating the rate of intensification. Also Helene has more time than what Ida did at this time.

[wthrmn654]

Impressive how close it got to cancan area. 

[Radtechwxman]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Wouldn't that double structure support an EWRC happening? That will definitely make it tougher for RI to occur 

[USCG RS]

5 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Wouldn't that double structure support an EWRC happening? That will definitely make it tougher for RI to occur 

It may not be a ERC so much as the actual structuring of the eyewall finally coming together. Likewise, following ERCs (or the structuring finally being put together), hurricanes tend to take off. When these types of double bands develop and collapse to one, it tends to be a sign of health. Given the environment otherwise, it could be a rather ominous sign. 

[BoulderWX]

Can this be close to accurate?! A few local spots of 10” of rainfall based on radar estimates. I know these can be off, but they weee very accurate for the coastal areas of North Carolina with the TS a couple weeks ago. 

[Kevin Reilly]

Any idea of the water temp it is currently over.   I know last night at this time looked about 88f down SE of Cozumel Mexico.

 

[SnowGoose69]

The 3km NAM I think illustrates how the strength of this determines how fast it gets tugged., comes in at 908mb  The 00Z 3k NAM does not really begin pulling this NNW til it gets over 966mb in CNTRL GA.  In the end its maybe 50-60 miles east of the NHC track.   This is why I have been saying, Cat 3 or 4 at LF, the NHC track over N-CNTRL GA may be as much as 80 miles too far west.  If this somehow comes in as a 1 or 2 it might get pulled hard fast and something crazy like those extreme west tracks may happen like even 20 miles west of the NHC one into AL.  

[andyhb]

Warm waters don't mean much until it gets rid of the dry air.

[MUWX]

Looks like it’s taking another big gulp of dry air on IR. 

[user13]

22 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I just hope Helene isn't doing what Michael did, which was basically to stay in check until the final 12-15 hours and then begin to explode.

we will see

[wthrmn654]

Nearest buoy last night was 87 or 88, there are 0 buoys in that region of the gulf however so have to rely solely on satellite estimates.