Major Hurricane Helene

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

12Z EPS: mean landfall Thu night near Apalachicola and then it moves N fairly close to GA/AL border; many either W half of lower GA or E half of lower AL; mean a bit E of 6Z, which was in E AL and perhaps very slightly E of 0Z

Very reasonable solution IMO.  Can't see it land falling much further west but some room for eastward adjustments.  EURO intensity looks reasonable as well. 

Only game in town.  MDR is about as quiet as it gets for this time of year.  Classic CV tracker threats are done.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

Bro! Who knows if Helene could overperform given the current conditions indicated on SHIPS?

 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

33 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Classic CV tracker threats are done.

 

done where?

3. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is expected to move 
westward during the next several days. Environmental conditions 
could support some gradual development of this system, and a 
tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of 
the week while the wave moves westward across the eastern and 
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

 

[andyhb]

7 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Bro! Who knows if Helene will mog Michael to Mumbai given the current conditions indicated on SHIPS?

 

Why are you still up to this cringe BS?

[Rjay]

14 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Bro! Who knows if Helene will mog Michael to Mumbai given the current conditions indicated on SHIPS?

 

Honestly, do you want to be banned?  

[senc30]

14 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Honestly, do you want to be banned?  

I was wondering if I was missing something but I see now I'm not. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, ldub23 said:

I might wait for a center to form first before RI begins

Yeah that’s still a giant mess regardless of how deep the convection is. 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah that’s still a giant mess regardless of how deep the convection is. 

 

Satellite loop shows that a low lvl circulation is already going.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

NAM model (good for large-scale features and 500MB steering)

[MANDA]

Intensity of this is going to depend on trough interaction.  Depending on how the cut off / trough develops/digs into the Mississippi Valley it will either increase the shear and make for a more lopsided system or it could help to ventilate it if enough separation takes place.  Either way I'm still thinking on the order of Francine type intensity as I suggested yesterday.  The cut off / trough will also impact track after landfall.  Once inland system could get pulled N to NW towards the Mississippi Valley or be allowed to slide NNE or NE towards SC/NC.  Lots to work out over the next couple of days.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

That 18z ICON track is almost a carbon copy of Hurricane Idalia. I mean if you put the two on top of each other you would barely notice a difference.

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

That 18z ICON track is almost a carbon copy of Hurricane Idalia. I mean if you put the two on top of each other you would barely notice a difference.

This 18Z Icon is well E of the 12Z, showing that there’s still (not surprisingly) a lot of uncertainty.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

Just now, GaWx said:

This 18Z Icon is well E of the 12Z, showing that there’s still (not surprisingly) a lot of uncertainty.

Convection has persisted and even deepened, despite being more offset from the "center".

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This 18Z Icon is well E of the 12Z, showing that there’s still (not surprisingly) a lot of uncertainty.

It may be another day or two until things are settled. 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

 

Watch it get even lower at 00z

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

Just now, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

 

Watch it get even lower at 00z

 

would probably be a 125-135kt landfall with that pressure

[jburns]

19 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

That 18z ICON track is almost a carbon copy of Hurricane Idalia. I mean if you put the two on top of each other you would barely notice a difference.

You have already attracted attention from multiple mods with your non-sensible posts. Enough.  Think more and post a whole lot less. If I have to restrict your posting I will do so until 97L has peaked, made landfall, and dissipated into a mid-level trough.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

 

[USCG RS]

While the SSTs are very favorable, shear is not. 

So until we start seeing this thing get it's act together and the shear relaxes, high end probabilities should be considered just that, a low potential high end. 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

2 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Bro! Who knows if Helene could overperform given the current conditions indicated on SHIPS?

 

 

 

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

While the SSTs are very favorable, shear is not. 

So until we start seeing this thing get it's act together and the shear relaxes, high end probabilities should be considered just that, a low potential high end. 

Shear might be below 10 knots for now, and who knows we might get a jet interaction?

 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

 

 

Moves so fast that it remains in the high 960s/low 970s over Atlanta.

[CheeselandSkies]

That 18z ICON track is almost a carbon copy of Hurricane Idalia. I mean if you put the two on top of each other you would barely notice a difference.

Are you "DunedinDave" on Storm2K or are you just copy/pasting others' posts from there?

Sent from my Pixel 8 using Tapatalk

[Amped]

The GFS and euro agree on the track and 500mb pattern now. 

[Jebman]

Look, I don't want this storm to hit anyone. That said, I am so glad we have a nice hot ridge protecting Texas!

[Jebman]

5 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

 

 

Moves so fast that it remains in the high 960s/low 970s over Atlanta.

Fast mover means much less chance for excessive freshwater flooding.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

Just now, Jebman said:

Fast mover means much less chance for excessive freshwater flooding.

 

The N Georgia mountains though

[Jebman]

Sorry. I forgot those. 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

While the SSTs are very favorable, shear is not. 

So until we start seeing this thing get it's act together and the shear relaxes, high end probabilities should be considered just that, a low potential high end. 

I think the ceiling for this is less related to shear and more to how organized it can become before reaching the Gulf. While the environment in the Gulf doesn’t look pristine from an intensification standpoint, I think some of the higher end potential (not necessarily the GFS solutions but rather the middle ground between GFS/Euro) can be realized if this isn’t a broad gyre type system in that timeframe. 

The loop current in the Gulf is awfully impressive and I don’t know if moisture is going to be a huge inhibitor. The impact of shear could also be lessened if it’s aligned with storm motion. Just my .02.

[GaWx]

18Z GEFS mean: even further west near Pensacola, which is 50 miles W of 12Z, and then N into AL

[purduewx80]

8 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Fast mover means much less chance for excessive freshwater flooding.

Its interaction with the upper low will cause severe flooding.