Master of Disaster Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, andyhb said: This picture tells me literally nothing. Thank you. Kinda like your reply then? It was a question. Like is that what it is? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 4 minutes ago, HWY316wx said: The HRRR simulated radar has been horrendous for this first low, is just absolutely always out in left field. Nowhere close to verifying. FYP, not only is the HRRR already pretty unreliable it is doubly so in tropical forecasts and instead its better to stick with hurricane models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, Master of Disaster said: Thank you. Kinda like your reply then? It was a question. Like is that what it is? But without any context as to what the picture is showing (and the cutting off of the color bars), how is someone supposed to answer that question? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, Master of Disaster said: Thank you. Kinda like your reply then? It was a question. Like is that what it is? "I kinda wonder if those are hot towers beginning to fire around the center." That is a statement. "Are those hot towers beginning to fire around the center?" is a inquiry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 13 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said: I kinda wonder if those are hot towers beginning to fire around the center. This might be better at illustrating your question. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 So far it has been relatively free from a bunch of non-sense, but we're close enough out from landfall of a probable major that anyone can get one going.Done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, Nibor said: This might be better at illustrating your question. First sign of meaningful intensification all afternoon. May finally be go time, and also while constructing a more proper eyewall, maybe it can construct a CDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, Nibor said: This might be better at illustrating your question. That's even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 4 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said: Thank you. Kinda like your reply then? It was a question. Like is that what it is? Based on this Satellite Picture, I would say that it is possible that these are Hot Towers showing up. That witsthanding, I would say they are not all that clearly defined as of yet, assuming they are. These hot towers, however, tend to indicate RI is beginning when observed. This is a pretty good and informative video on it: https://www.google.com/search?q=how+to+see+a+hot+tower+in+a+hurricane&oq=how+to+see+a+hot+tower+in+a+hurricane+&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyCQgAEEUYORigATIHCAEQIRigATIHCAIQIRigATIHCAMQIRigATIHCAQQIRigATIHCAUQIRirAjIHCAYQIRirAjIHCAcQIRirAtIBCDQ1MjZqMGo3qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:d8125e6a,vid:8U5puPnqMNo,st:0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 0Z SHIPS is out. There is a significant drop in forecasted intensity vs the 18Z cycle. For example 18Z-24 was 112 kts whereas 0Z-18 is now 94 kts. RI probabilities dropped as well. * GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL092024 09/26/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 87 94 96 91 85 70 54 40 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 81 87 94 96 48 33 29 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 81 88 94 97 49 33 29 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.2% 47.0% 32.9% 22.2% 11.8% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 21.0% 20.7% 21.1% 9.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 14.6% 7.2% 3.3% 7.1% 3.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.2% 24.9% 19.1% 13.0% 5.4% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 40.0% 43.0% 28.0% 21.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 29.1% 33.9% 23.5% 17.0% 8.7% 2.1% 0% .5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 With regard to situation over GA now, a frontal boundary runs from about 30e ATL to s.w. GA and will become q.s. overnite into Thursday, as hurricane approaches it will be pushed back to the west 20-40 miles and will be focus of exceptionally heavy rainfalls in 10-15 inch range (closer to 5-10 inch warmer air mass over e, s GA). I think the forecast for ATL, CSG and over towards Warner Robins (where Stormtracker is going, Bonaire is a suburb) needs to be along lines of all hell will break loose later Thurs after intermittent heavy thundershowers now to 18z, intervals of torrential wind-blown rain, frequent lightning, embedded tornadic wind streaks with gusts to 100-120 possible (outside of those, 80-100). It will only die down a bit when remnant low gets past ATL. That frontal boundary is probably going to stall overnite and edge back west as 'cane approaches landfall. Temps will be 66-69F on west side and 77-81 on east side. Imagine also upsloping all of those frontal dynamics into southern Apps. Nasty. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 7 minutes ago, bdgwx said: 0Z SHIPS is out. There is a significant drop in forecasted intensity vs the 18Z cycle. For example 18Z-24 was 112 kts whereas 0Z-18 is now 94 kts. RI probabilities dropped as well. * GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL092024 09/26/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 87 94 96 91 85 70 54 40 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 81 87 94 96 48 33 29 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 81 88 94 97 49 33 29 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.2% 47.0% 32.9% 22.2% 11.8% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 21.0% 20.7% 21.1% 9.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 14.6% 7.2% 3.3% 7.1% 3.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.2% 24.9% 19.1% 13.0% 5.4% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 40.0% 43.0% 28.0% 21.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 29.1% 33.9% 23.5% 17.0% 8.7% 2.1% 0% .5% Praying we continue to see these drops in anticipated max winds and RI, but sadly a storm of this size coming in at this trajectory is going to cause major problems whether it’s a 2/3 or 4. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Eyewall has closed. 25NM 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Looking at the airmass composite, which is used for seeing dry air, it's still affecting it. Didn't expect to see dry air getting mixed into the equation at all honestly. ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 26 SEP 2024 Time : 001020 UTC Lat : 23:01:15 N Lon : 86:34:59 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.8 / 979.5mb/ 61.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 3.7 3.8 3.8 Center Temp : -40.6C Cloud Region Temp : -57.1C Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION Subtropical Adjustment : OFF Extratropical Adjustment : OFF Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 28 minutes ago, bdgwx said: The SHIPS RI probabilities were high at 18Z. We should have the 0Z coming out shortly. * GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL092024 09/25/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 85 94 102 112 114 102 91 67 46 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 85 94 102 112 71 41 31 28 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 85 95 104 112 73 41 31 28 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 6.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.2% 67.8% 50.7% 37.2% 19.7% 23.1% 12.5% 0.0% Logistic: 35.0% 61.1% 50.3% 30.2% 9.7% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 47.5% 10.3% 15.3% 28.6% 14.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 36.6% 46.4% 38.8% 32.0% 14.6% 9.0% 4.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 74.0% 99.0% 99.0% 91.0% 71.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 55.3% 72.7% 68.9% 61.5% 42.8% 5.5% 2.1% .5% Recon can't seem to find anything lower than 975mb 18z tropical models' pressure at 8 p.m.: 960, 963, 972, 969. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, jburns said: Eyewall has closed. 1 out of the 6 of them has. 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, Amped said: 1 out of the 6 of them has. I’m just reporting what the HH Plane sent back. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 4 minutes ago, beanskip said: Recon can't seem to find anything lower than 975mb 18z tropical models' pressure at 8 p.m.: 960, 963, 972, 969. Latest drop was 973mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 4 minutes ago, beanskip said: Recon can't seem to find anything lower than 975mb 973 mb from the last dropsonde. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 00z early cycle track still west of TLH to ATL, but intensity dropped significantly. More like a high end category 2 borderline 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, bdgwx said: 973 mb from the last dropsonde. Thanks. Point is, it has gone from overperforming to underperforming, at least for now. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 As to RI potential, 'cane is not quite totally past land interaction and situation will probably explode after 06z and in particular when center is between 25 and 27 N tomorrow. A lot more effective energy inflow can take place as it gets further from land and inflow is coming from tropical Atlantic with Cuba no longer a partial obstacle to inflow. That will soon be the case. I would look for steady pressure falls after 06z, just slight falls to then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 00z early cycle track still west of TLH to ATL, but intensity dropped significantly. More like a high end category 2 borderline 3. Would be great if N FL can catch a break and this can’t get its act together so it comes in like a Francine or Idalia rather than an Ida/Laura. The larger size means a large surge but maybe the fast movement can reduce that a little, and the area it’s coming in is generally sparsely populated (even though it’s been hammered the last 2 seasons). Of course the inland fresh water flooding will be a big problem regardless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 This is not going to rapidly intensify, it's far too big. I doubt it'll be much stronger than 100-105mph. 1 2 5 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 I would guess the dry air issue is factoring into models currently. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Co-worker is leaving Raleigh headed for a funeral in Illinois, by car, Friday morning at 6am. His route is up 77 through WVA and across Ohio. Looking at the models it seems he could drive through the storm. Any thoughts on what the sensible weather will be at that point? Flood risks? Wind threat?. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Not sure if most of you realize that RI wasn't supposed to start till tonight into Thurs. The dry air definitely through a wrench in the core organization. However it's about to enter the very high OHC and even better upper atmospheric conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 00z early cycle track still west of TLH to ATL, but intensity dropped significantly. More like a high end category 2 borderline 3. They’re riding the Alabama line, or even west of it fully in AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 I’d resist the urge to play the over performing/underperforming game. It can’t intensify at a rapid pace (again) until the next stage of the organizational phase is complete. That takes time and is not linear in many cases. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Everyone backing off on RI just as the IR is going beast mode. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now