Major Hurricane Helene

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think this is really good consensus, actually. These precise things always come down to a very small movements on final approach. 

I almost always assume a LF point 10-15 miles east of what you think 6-12 hours out as the frictional effect usually results in the eye taking jogs E or in the case of a E-W moving storm, north before it comes ashore

[SchaumburgStormer]

Seems like we have been consistently surprised lately but intensity of RI. Wouldn’t shocked me to see this one go high end once we flush that dry air out and hit diurnal max

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

It's funny how east it went initially but then kinda got to the same landfall point in the end 

I saw that lol.

[TheDreamTraveler]

The wind field on this thing is absolutely massive. This thing is gonna be a beast in size once it gets built up.

[Master of Disaster]

Years ago, I was chatting with one of the NHC guys and he mentioned that hurricanes on this approach produce a Kelvin Wave. The energy from the storm refracts back and forth from the coast to the hurricane until finally it crashes into Appalachcola Bay. There was one storm. I wanna say it was Ivan that produced this effect and that Bay saw a significant storm surge but was well outside the threat zone. 

[bugalou]

55 minutes ago, Normandy said:

This is an absolutely generational hurricane heading towards Florida.  The surge from this will be outrageous, and the inland wind will be astonishing due to fast movement.  Incredible satellite presentation

 

The surge may not be as bad due to the fast movement not being able to build the seas ahead of it. Considering the coastline's shape the wind gain with the fast forward speed will likely be better than the storm surge would be if it was moving slower.

[NoCORH4L]

Good thing it's just gators and pelicans along the coast 

[wxeyeNH]

As of 7pm the hurricane hunter found the pressure just a bit lower.  Around 973mb.  I don't see evidence of a eye.  So no RI  yet.  

[Wmsptwx]

5 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Good thing it's just gators and pelicans along the coast 

Exactly…not much lies between Tallahassee and ocean and Tallahassee is like 200 feet plus above sea level.

[Radtechwxman]

3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

As of 7pm the hurricane hunter found the pressure just a bit lower.  Around 973mb.  I don't see evidence of a eye.  So no RI  yet.  

Still trying to mix out dry air and organize core so intensification will be gradual till then

[NavarreDon]

Perspective on the size of Helene, the TS wind field is jaw dropping!

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles
(555 km).


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[Normandy]

17 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Perspective on the size of Helene, the TS wind field is jaw dropping!

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles
(555 km).


.

This is why it’s generational.  The 25 miles is only because it’s a minimal hurricane.  As it starts cranking tomorrow the 25 is going to become 75 and up.  Only comps I have are Katrina and Ike.

[Amped]

Radar  bands filling in the SE quad of the storm. There are a couple of hints of overshooting tops forming on IR. Maybe a connective burst going off there in the next few hours.

[beanskip]

Tracking the 18z tropical models and their landfalls:

HAFS - A -- Far western Taylor County -- just barely still in the eastern edge of the NHC's cone.

HAFS-B -- Around the Jefferson County/Taylor County line at 84W -- in the far eastern section of the cone. 

HMON -- clips Alligator Point then hits Wakulla County and passes directly over TLH -- farthest west solution of the 3, but still east of NHC track

HWRF -- Carbon Copy of HAFS-A

So, three of the four are in the far eastern part of the cone. The other is east of the midpoint.

The 18z models are all either out of the cone to the east, or just on the eastern border.

#shrug

[SnowGoose69]

18Z Euro not much change, if anything the capture over GA is a bit later.  

[Prospero]

29 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

... I don't see evidence of a eye.  So no RI  yet.  

Is this the part of the Gulf of Mexico hurricane story where the eye never gets to form until a couple hours before landfall?

In the open ocean or Caribbean it would have one of those perfect eyes.

[USCG RS]

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/tc_diurnal_cycle/tc_diurnal_cycle.storm.php?&period=3day&prod=&storm=09L

This is pretty cool. 

Did some digging and found a paper on it. This is an expirament currently being run. Scientists have noticed that in the evening (at about sunset) a cold ring of high altitude clouds which propogate outwards overnight. There is a question as to how it affects the intesity of the Cyclone with a hyopthesis that these may indicate gravity waves as well as enhanced outflow in a particular layer of the Troposphere. 

It appears that this is just a coordination with aircraft hunters currently and a phenemenon which has been observed but as of yet, unknown as to why it is happening. 

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/HFP2015/11-TC_Diurnal_exp.pdf

[CoastalWx]

One thing to think about is that you need to be east of the eye and not just center for strong winds. So if the eye is large, and it passes over say TLH….theyll get raked, but it will be eastern suburbs that get it. It’s one reason why I think TLH and ATL won’t be on the worst side. Well at least I hope.  

[Blizzard22]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

One thing to think about is that you need to be east of the eye and not just center for strong winds. So if the eye is large, and it passes over say TLH….theyll get raked, but it will be eastern suburbs that get it. It’s one reason why I think TLH and ATL won’t be on the worst side. Well at least I hope.  

but the center is forecast to go near Columbus, GA ?

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

One thing to think about is that you need to be east of the eye and not just center for strong winds. So if the eye is large, and it passes over say TLH….theyll get raked, but it will be eastern suburbs that get it. It’s one reason why I think TLH and ATL won’t be on the worst side. Well at least I hope.  

The current NHC track if it verified I almost think ATL would be too far east to see worst winds, often once a system gets that far inland the very strong winds are within 20 miles or so of the center.  could see where the east side of the city was too far east for it on that track but still think its going to verify over them or east

[Kevin Reilly]

When Helene makes landfall Florida in the eastern Panhandle this thing is coming right up towards Macon Ga. and then slow down due to the capture and blocking present it will be a disaster Florida Panhandle through all of the Southeastern States namely Georgia, South Carolina, southern North Carolina, and eastern and central Tennessee thanks to the blocking.  

I mean 967 mb just north of Macon Ga.  is a disaster especially for Savannah, Hilton Head Island all places Atlanta points south and east since those areas will be in the southeast quadrant especially towards the coast and the I-95 corridor there. 

Record Rainfall coming and probably winds gusting past 80 mph for certain.

This storm merges combines with an upper level low and also is blocked from coming north and northeast with a very strong pressure gradient!

Helene will not just be an at the coast event. 

Helene will remain a powerful mid latitude low all the way to eastern Tennessee. 

The Southeast is in Trouble with this one!

Batten down the hatches and get ready!

[Kevin Reilly]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

One thing to think about is that you need to be east of the eye and not just center for strong winds. So if the eye is large, and it passes over say TLH….theyll get raked, but it will be eastern suburbs that get it. It’s one reason why I think TLH and ATL won’t be on the worst side. Well at least I hope.  

Totally agree eastern Georgia and southeastern and southern South Carolina with the obvious Florida Panhandle is ground zero. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard22 said:

but the center is forecast to go near Columbus, GA ?

I’m guessing the winds as it moves north may be skewed more east by the time it gets to ATL latitude. At least I hope. 

[Blizzard22]

Just now, Kevin Reilly said:

Totally agree eastern Georgia and southeastern and southern South Carolina with the obvious Florida Panhandle is ground zero. 

Eastern GA is close to 200 miles east of the center assuming the NHC is correct.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The current NHC track if it verified I almost think ATL would be too far east to see worst winds, often once a system gets that far inland the very strong winds are within 20 miles or so of the center.  could see where the east side of the city was too far east for it on that track but still think its going to verify over them or east

Luckily I’m not forecasting lol. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Blizzard22 said:

Eastern GA is close to 200 miles east of the center assuming the NHC is correct.

Yeah NHC track would move those winds more to the west. 

[cardinalland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

One thing to think about is that you need to be east of the eye and not just center for strong winds. So if the eye is large, and it passes over say TLH….theyll get raked, but it will be eastern suburbs that get it. It’s one reason why I think TLH and ATL won’t be on the worst side. Well at least I hope.  

that's always true in new england but less so in this setup (even though the storm will be moving fast)

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, Normandy said:

This is why it’s generational.  The 25 miles is only because it’s a minimal hurricane.  As it starts cranking tomorrow the 25 is going to become 75 and up.  Only comps I have are Katrina and Ike.

I was thinking about that one as a comp...I'll have my Final Call out around midday tomorrow. Enioy tracking guys.

[cardinalland]

i imagine highest winds will be southerlies displaced to the east, but there will still be quite strong westerlies and easterlies

[NavarreDon]

Some amazing clouds this evening in Navarre, upper level outflow from the storm (ripping NE) & prefrontal storm clouds below.






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