Major Hurricane Helene

[beanskip]

Just now, GaWx said:

 This is a quote from someone at another BB because he worded it so well:

“It's bonkers that the NHC track seems to be discounting all of the global models further eastward movement. Not even a mention in any of the discussions. 

If the NHC nails this track as usual, I'll never doubt them again.”

  Opinions?

It's not just the global models. I can't find a single model anywhere that has the eye  passing 25 miles west of Tallahassee, as the NHC track currently shows. 

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Given what we’re seeing from the hurricane models, and the consistency once it was projected that the center wouldn’t cross the Yucatán land mass, I think they’re absolutely worth taking seriously.

That said, how the storm reacts to the pressure fall is key. I think it’s more likely that pressure is very low and the RMW is larger with lower peak winds (still could be car 3/4 to be sure) than it’s an enormous storm with an enormous ring of 125kt winds in addition. 

I’m taking seriously for sure. Even 940 would be quite serious. But since the hurricane models sometimes overdo the strengthening, I’m hopeful, especially considering the size, that it won’t get as low as they have it

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, GaWx said:

 This is a quote from someone at another BB because he worded it so well:

“It's bonkers that the NHC track seems to be discounting all of the global models further eastward movement. Not even a mention in any of the discussions. 

If the NHC nails this track as usual, I'll never doubt them again.”

  Opinions?

They have to give credence to the ULL and as much as the RGEM/NAM are not hurricane models they for sure have noticed that the mesos are tugging the cane more NNW over GA.  They most definitely are aware of fact that the stronger the cane is the more likely it can resist the pull longer.  I think their track is a safe middle ground although I feel maybe 30 miles E would have been better

[Amped]

The southern side of the storm looks improved. There's some banding now instead of just paint spatter.

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I’m taking seriously for sure. Even 940 would be quite serious. But since the hurricane models sometimes overdo the strengthening, I’m hopeful, especially considering the size, that it won’t get as low as they have it

I know you are—I just mean the pressure at least is a legitimate possibility. I’m more skeptical of the very high end wind depiction but it’s not completely unrealistic imo. 

[gymengineer]

Storm surge forecast update in the intermediate advisory that will probably result in an updated graphic at 5 pm: 

Carrabelle, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...12-18 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...8-12 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-9 ft

[andyhb]

This map may look substantially different in a few days. The projected track of Helene is into an area that's generally devoid of intense hurricane strikes.

[Hotair]

1 minute ago, gymengineer said:

Storm surge forecast update in the intermediate advisory that will probably result in an updated graphic at 5 pm: 

Carrabelle, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...12-18 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...8-12 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-9 ft

Even the low end of those estimates are quite impactful. 

[Radtechwxman]

10 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

Looks like Helene will close off a much smaller eye than that huge one it attempted last night.

Looks like maybe attempting to close off an eyewall finally 

[WxWatcher007]

That 2pm advisory shows the TS wind field expanding 100 miles since the advisory at 8am.

[beanskip]

5 minutes ago, beanskip said:

It's not just the global models. I can't find a single model anywhere that has the eye  passing 25 miles west of Tallahassee, as the NHC track currently shows. 

To elaborate.

The 12Z Euro, 12z UK, 12z GFS and 12z ICON all have a Taylor County landfall -- that's 50-75 miles east of current NHC track.

While the hurricane models are Wakulla County landfall, I don't see any of them passing TLH to the west as the NHC track shows.

Anybody know why this is the case?

Yes, the storm is big, but I'd rather be 50 miles away from the eye than right in line with it!

[schoeppeya]

Definitely can see the eye trying to close off on visible

[Amped]

NHC should be having a fun debate on whether to extend the hurricane warnings into Tampa just for the storm surge.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

NHC should be having a fun debate on whether to extend the hurricane warnings into Tampa just for the storm surge.

Euro has 925 winds of 72ks in TPA from 210 that means maybe 65kt gusts from a funneling direction.  NHC track would not be as severe but a slight shift is bad

[jm1220]

39 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Considering that the record low SLP for N GA is in the 970s, I’m assuming this is likely way overdone. I sure hope that’s the case. But you never know for sure as this is a very unique situation.

The interaction with the upper level low probably keeps it stronger further inland. I would assume it helps ventilate it and brings jet stream energy in to help maintain it. 

[CoastalWx]

Man tough call. I also feel like I would take the NHC track and nudge it east too..but the differences in impacts are literally night and day. 

[beanskip]

39 minutes ago, beanskip said:

To elaborate.

The 12Z Euro, 12z UK, 12z GFS and 12z ICON all have a Taylor County landfall -- that's 50-75 miles east of current NHC track.

While the hurricane models are Wakulla County landfall, I don't see any of them passing TLH to the west as the NHC track shows.

Anybody know why this is the case?

Yes, the storm is big, but I'd rather be 50 miles away from the eye than right in line with it!

HEY METS!

I've been on this board for as long as it has existed.

I have an NHC Cat 3 track line going right over my house.

I've always seen these boards as place to learn and share.

I have what I think is a valid question and would appreciate somebody educating me.

Thanks! 

[GaWx]

12Z EPS: mean track Gwinnett County, just E of Atlanta. More members just E of ATL vs right over or just W but a decent number are just W. So, a just W of ATL track still a reasonable possibility per 12Z EPS. Many members in high 970s to low 980s when closest to ATL.

 

[buckeyefan1]

11 minutes ago, beanskip said:

HEY METS!

I've been on this board for as long as it has existed.

I have an NHC Cat 3 track line going right over my house.

I've always seen these boards as place to learn and share.

I have what I think is a valid question and would appreciate somebody educating me.

Thanks! 

I’m far from being a met, but I’ll say that they’re thinking the ULL pulls it a touch further west as opposed to the usual poleward tug nne-ne? 

[beanskip]

1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I’m far from being a met, but I’ll say that they’re thinking the ULL pulls it a touch further west as opposed to the usual poleward tug nne-ne? 

Thanks for responding!! So, presumably, they think all the global models are missing the impact of this feature (wouldn't be the first time that has happened, of course). Thanks again! 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, beanskip said:

HEY METS!

I've been on this board for as long as it has existed.

I have an NHC Cat 3 track line going right over my house.

I've always seen these boards as place to learn and share.

I have what I think is a valid question and would appreciate somebody educating me.

Thanks! 

I didn't zoom in or anything, but NHC track at 11a seemed close to the tropical models at 12z. I generally follow the tropical models..but you have some good globals now still to the east. If I had to guess, NHC may ever so slightly adjust E at 5p.

[GaWx]

46 minutes ago, beanskip said:

To elaborate.

The 12Z Euro, 12z UK, 12z GFS and 12z ICON all have a Taylor County landfall -- that's 50-75 miles east of current NHC track.

While the hurricane models are Wakulla County landfall, I don't see any of them passing TLH to the west as the NHC track shows.

Anybody know why this is the case?

Yes, the storm is big, but I'd rather be 50 miles away from the eye than right in line with it!

Well fwiw, I roughly estimate that 40% of the 12Z EPS members are over or just W of TLH.

[dan11295]

From La Bajada radar you can tell the environment around the core is moistening and appears to be in process of working out any remaining dry air from the circulation.

[Radtechwxman]

2 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

From La Bajada radar you can tell the environment around the core is moistening and appears to be in process of working out any remaining dry air from the circulation.

Still a good bit to work out on northern edge of COC. The better environment tonight should help really accelerate things. 

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, beanskip said:

HEY METS!

I've been on this board for as long as it has existed.

I have an NHC Cat 3 track line going right over my house.

I've always seen these boards as place to learn and share.

I have what I think is a valid question and would appreciate somebody educating me.

Thanks! 

 

3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I’m far from being a met, but I’ll say that they’re thinking the ULL pulls it a touch further west as opposed to the usual poleward tug nne-ne? 

I think it’s also really important to note that even the NHC hasn’t quite honed in on that final landfall point yet. This is from their 11am discussion:

The track guidance remains tightly clustered,
and the NHC forecast is generally just an update of the previous
prediction. It is still too soon at this point to be overly focused
on an exact landfall location and time, since NHC track forecasts
can be off by an average of 60 nm at the 36-hour forecast time.

Anyone in the cone should be ready for a direct impact. Francine just a few weeks ago with the last minute east trend is a good example of why. Personally, I’m still hedging for a landfall slightly further east. 

[jrips27]

Hey everyone! Just finally logged back in after lurking the past several days. I'm in downtown Atlanta where heavy rain looks like it's really going to start to pile up over the next few hours. Commute home back to the northern suburbs looks pretty miserable. Have tried to get the word out today that people need to be prepared for something possibly extraordinary.

Hard to imagine the rain totals NWS FFC is spitting out. There's going to be considerable urban flash flooding downtown as there are parking lots that flood when we get a heavy summer thunderstorm. 

Agree with most everyone on here that a little shift east would allow Atlanta to avoid the worst case scenario tomorrow night with winds.

Stay safe everyone!

[CoastalWx]

Not much of a move on the 18z tropical models. Maybe a tad more spread to the E, but overall pretty consistent location wise. 

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not much of a move on the 18z tropical models. Maybe a tad more spread to the E, but overall pretty consistent location wise. 

Do you mean the 12Z runs? It’s too early for 18Z runs of HWRF, HMON, etc. Which models are you referring to? Are you talking about different models?

[csnavywx]

Some evidence on visible that there's still a bit of southeasterly shear undercutting the outflow layer. Will probably act as a bit of a braking mechanism until it starts getting some actual movement to the north and shear cuts to near zero.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Do you mean the 12Z runs? It’s too early for 18Z runs of HWRF, HMON, etc. Which models are you referring to? Are you talking about different models?