Major Hurricane Helene

[Windspeed]

1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said:

All recon missions are currently done, with teal having issues, I'm not sure there another recon flight till closer to morning I maybe wrong didn't look at the recon plans

[code]

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 71        FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 49
       A. 24/2330Z,25/0530Z          A. 25/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0809A CYCLONE        B. NOAA9 0909A CYCLONE
       C. 24/2100Z                   C. 25/0530Z
       D. 20.5N 85.0W                D. NA
       E. 24/2300Z TO 25/0530Z       E. NA
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT           F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
       G. FIX                        G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE
       H. NO WRA ACTIVATION          H. NO WRA ACTIVATION

       FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 43         FLIGHT SIX - TEAL 72
       A. 25/1200Z                   A. 25/1130Z,1730Z
       B. NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE        B. AFXXX 1109A CYCLONE
       C. 25/0800Z                   C. 25/0930Z
       D. 22.1N 86.0W                D. 22.0N 86.0W
       E. 25/0900Z TO 25/1500Z       E. 25/1100Z TO 25/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT           F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
       G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR         G. FIX
       H. NO WRA ACTIVATION          H. NO WRA ACTIVATION

[/code]

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

New Forcast from nhc 120 mph max

Given its size it'll be tough to get much stronger. I'm skeptical it'll even get that strong. Maybe more Ike like

[Windspeed]

So if I decoded that correctly next
Planned flight isn't for a few hours? 

Yes, but with flights scheduled through 12z tomorrow, they will likely wait on recon for in situ data for any upgrade unless something drastic occurs in satellite appears such as an eye forming within the CDO. I doubt that's going to happen in the next 12 hours. We probably wouldn't realistically see intensification result in an upgrade until 11AM at the earliest. Helene still has a lot of work to do tonight to organize its core and eyewall evolution. We also have Cancun radar to see this process evolve.

[Radtechwxman]

Satellite really starting to look interesting. Getting nice cyclonic curvature now and convection beginning to wrap more around center instead of on its periphery. 

[hawkeye_wx]

4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

So if I decoded that correctly next

Planned flight isn't for a few hours? 

It says the next recon is scheduled to take off around 4am EDT, so we won't get more data until morning.

[nycwinter]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Given its size it'll be tough to get much stronger. I'm skeptical it'll even get that strong. Maybe more Ike like

much  larger storms have gotten stronger then 120 mph.

[Windspeed]

It says the next recon is scheduled to take off around 4am EDT, so we won't get more data until morning.

TEAL 71 had 25/0530Z scheduled on their plan as well. I am uncertain if that still remains.

[AccuChris]

It certainly continues to look more and more impressive on IR


.

[Windspeed]

Here's a radar loop out of Cancun. The low-level and mid-level circulations look fairly aligned, but a core eyewall band has yet to evolve. Helene just isn't there yet as far as hurricane intensity. I'd say it needs at least another 12-18 hours for the organization to ramp up a core. Perhaps the Yucatán landmass may also aid in the LLC tightening due to friction. Also, it's going to be very close that the LLC doesn't actually cross over extreme NE Yucatán.

[Radtechwxman]

6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Here's a radar loop out of Cancun. The low-level and mid-level circulations look fairly aligned, but a core eyewall band has yet to evolve. Helene just isn't there yet as far as hurricane intensity. I'd say it needs at least another 12-18 hours for the organization to ramp up a core. Perhaps the Yucatán landmass may also aid in the LLC tightening due to friction. Also, it's going to be very close that the LLC doesn't actually cross over extreme NE Yucatán.

I agree and once that core is established I think that's when RI intensification phase will start

[USCG RS]

Outflow becoming better established, CDO becoming more established, sheer appears to be relaxing.

[Floydbuster]

 

[jburns]

38 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

New Forcast from nhc 120 mph max

There are 30 posts on page 19.  You made 11 of them. Please calm down and read more. 

[tiger_deF]

The MLC has been starting to rotate pretty quickly in the past few frames. Now that the low and mid level centers are more or less aligned, think we are finally seeing the start of eyeball building, though there is a long way to go

[Radtechwxman]

1 minute ago, tiger_deF said:

The MLC has been starting to rotate pretty quickly in the past few frames. Now that the low and mid level centers are more or less aligned, think we are finally seeing the start of eyeball building, though there is a long way to go

Quite impressed with how quick it had organized this evening. Satellite appearance looks better each frame. That CDO evolving nicely. Now we need to see this reflected on a radar standpoint with eyewall development. 

[Amped]

Global models are showing the fastest deepening rate tomorrow night through Thursday morning.

[hawkeye_wx]

It seems a new recon plane has taken off from Biloxi and is on its way, so we won't have to wait til morning.

[Sn0waddict]

Latest GFS is about 10 mb stronger than the 18z run at landfalll. Around 955mb

[MUWX]

Speculation on Twitter is that this thing is well ahead of schedule. Very interested to see what recon finds. 

[Radtechwxman]

13 minutes ago, Amped said:

Global models are showing the fastest deepening rate tomorrow night through Thursday morning.

Agreed. That's when it could possibly get over loop current and have really good outflow ventilation 

3 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Speculation on Twitter is that this thing is well ahead of schedule. Very interested to see what recon finds. 

Satellite appearance would agree. Main thing now is does center go onto Yucatan or stay over water

[TPAwx]

0z HMON initializing @ 991

and then is quickly overdone with deepening.

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: strongest run yet with 977 mb a few hours before a Thu night Apalachee Bay landfall. Keep in mind that this model tends to be conservative this far out.

 Helene then goes to far NE GA, well E of ATL.

[Windspeed]

Hrmm... Granted, it's only been a few hours since I posted the last radar clip, but it does appear a ring of convection is trying to come together. Perhaps an core eye band is evolving now.

[Radtechwxman]

Current motion of this certainly looks like it could pass over Yucatan. Hard to tell but will be very close if it doesn't 

[GaWx]

0Z Euro coming in significantly stronger into the Big Bend at 961 mb! It keeps getting stronger with each run.

[Griizzcoat]

Latest Euro at HR 48

[kayman]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I’m extra worried that the tornado threat from this in especially the NE sector is going to be high. Is that true? Any thoughts? I haven’t heard much about that yet.

 

10 hours ago, LakeNormanStormin said:

Thought about that too being here in the NC Piedmont.

Wonder what effect the upper level low and stalled front will have on that.

I am planning on following the tornado and the high wind threats starting on Thursday in the Southeastern forum. This might be something to watch locally in that regional forum.

[Windspeed]

Recon 986 mb xtrap.

[GaWx]

 It looks like the 0Z Euro has the center crossing Gwinnett County in N GA, E/NE of ATL.
 
 The distance from landfall position to E of ATL is ~250 miles and it gets there in only 9 hours on the Euro. That works out to an average of a whopping 28 mph, among the fastest on record for that area! To compare, the very fast moving Opal averaged no more than ~25 mph. Eloise of 1975, which also brought damaging winds well inland to W GA, averaged at ~29 mph.

[WxWatcher007]

New D2 SPC outlook highlights a pretty significant tornado risk in coastal GA. @GaWx

 

 

Off to bed. Long day of travel to the Big Bend region. May need to reposition tomorrow.