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Major Hurricane Helene

WxWatcher007

By WxWatcher007,
in Tropical Headquarters

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Boston Bulldog

Boston Bulldog

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Pressures dropping at the buoy again fyi, not really sure what the heck is going on. 

Data will often be noisy in a chaotic environment. This is why many different measurements are needed for official statistics. I would recommend saving yourself from eye strain from obsessing over each datapoint, and look at overall trends in pressure

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WxWatcher007
WxWatcher007

Thanks for reminding people, and not that anything I say matters, but for folks reading—this could be a high impact event, and we have not just posters but probably a lot of lurkers that will be readi

jburns
jburns

Then you might want to consider getting familiar with some sources before we are in the middle of a major event.  

jburns
jburns

You can keep reading but your posting has been blocked for one week from today. If the storm dissipates sooner I may allow you to resume at that time. I’m sorry, but you were fairly warned. Pleas

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hawkeye_wx

hawkeye_wx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Pressures dropping at the buoy again fyi, not really sure what the heck is going on. 

The surface center is wobbling around a bit just south of the convection.  Shear is certainly lower than this morning, but there is still enough to prevent the convection from wrapping over/around the center.

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Kevin Reilly

Kevin Reilly

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Getting “the look”.  Expect hurricane status by 11:00 am advisory tomorrow.

Center should graze Yucatán but I wouldn’t expect landfall so it should have minimal effect on circulation / intensity.  

Surge on west Coast of FL could be bad especially Tampa vicinity on northward.  Water will pile toward the coast and motion of Helene and associated wind trajectory will prevent it from flowing back out until center is well inland.  

I’d also watch for potential nudges east in TPC track over next several advisories.  Maybe by as much as 50+ miles.

I am going with 5 AM advisory 75-85 mph

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Kevin Reilly

Kevin Reilly

Posted
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10 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

And then where does it go.  North west, north east?  Loop? 

Welp up here in the Mid-Atlantic zippo has come this way due to blocking.  So, my pick is move it north weaken as she goes and the system splits some goes west some goes east as it hits the latitude of say Roanoke Va to Richmond Va. I mean WOW the NAO is sitting at a -2.7 or so that really low and because of it we have drought conditions up here in SE PA.   Here in Media Delaware County, we have picked up .10 since August 15th.  So, Helene will NOT be coming here!

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Windspeed

Windspeed

Posted
Posted

The ULL over the Yucatán is beginning to feel the diabatic influences of expansion above Helene's deep convection and is starting to get squashed. I don't think it will be a real player by tomorrow. Land interaction over the NE Yucatán would play a bigger role to keeping intensity in check until the core lifts further north, unless the core remains further out over the channel, thereby limiting land influences. I imagine slow-to-steady intensification until the core is further north over the loop current and east-central GOM, where divergence aloft will increase and a jet streak will begin with the CONUS system over the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. I do think Category 3 intensity will be reached prior to landfall.

bbaa943939c8c4abfe87645da382f957.gif

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Daniel Boone

Daniel Boone

Posted
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41 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

In this case I feel the closer it is to strong 3 or more upon nearing landfall it’s likely go NNE or NE longer after landfall because the upper low won’t capture it til it’s undergoing major weakening.  So no question the NNW hook is probably delayed more if this comes in as a 4 vs a 2.  As for whether the track prior to landfall is impacted by the strength I’m not sure.  It’s possible if that upper low has tugging power reaching more into the Gulf at 48 hours then maybe a weaker cane will be going more 010 vs 040 at landfall    

Excellent point ! Makes sense.

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Blue Ridge

Blue Ridge

Posted
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55 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Data will often be noisy in a chaotic environment. This is why many different measurements are needed for official statistics. I would recommend saving yourself from eye strain from obsessing over each datapoint, and look at overall trends in pressure

The Nate Silver approach to polling data (read the top lines; toss it in the averages) is practical for so many data sets.

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GoAPPS

GoAPPS

Posted
Posted

Questions for the meteorologists:
 
1) If Helene comes ashore as a major hurricane versus a weaker system, how would its intensity affect how quickly or sharply it might curve NNW? What is the mechanism?

2) With an upper-level low positioned to the northwest of the storm as it makes landfall, how might the hurricane’s intensity impact its interaction with that low? Could a stronger storm create more resistance to the low's influence, or would it actually get steered more sharply?

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Quite the PRE event modeled on GFS for NC/TN/GA. Can't post the GIF but I feel like the flood threat so far inland is going under the radar no pun intended.

We are keeping a very close eye on that here in WNC.  Even before Helene gets here we are expecting some 4 to 6 inches and some have already gotten close to 3 inches this week already.  This could be historical for us. 

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Windspeed

Windspeed

Posted
Posted
I think hurricane status by 11 pm or very close to it. 
We likely will not see any upgrade until recon in situ data confirms since they will be in the system overnight. Also, this is still a broad circulation within the lower surface trough pressure regime of the central American gyre. 990 mb and a broad vortex isn't going to cut it for hurricane force sustained even on the eastern half of the circulation. Even with a significant drop in pressure tonight (985 mb), it will take time for the vortex to tighten and the gradient to sharpen. Also, if the core stays offshore in the NE Yucatán, some frictional convergence may also help to tighten the core and eyewall by that point.
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