Major Hurricane Helene

[BooneWX]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

Can we stop with the wobble monitoring?

Respectfully, every wobble right now could have major impacts downstream.

[TJW014]

Just now, BooneWX said:

Respectfully, every wobble right now could have major impacts downstream.

Yep, a 15 mile jog to the NE now could keep the center off the Yucatan, prevents any potential disruption to the circulation, resulting in a possibly stronger system, etc.

[SnowGoose69]

NHC still splitting the difference between the hurricane ensemble and the other models.  I still think they'll end up too far west in the end by maybe 50-70 miles

[Hotair]

1 minute ago, TJW014 said:

Yep, a 15 mile jog to the NE now could keep the center off the Yucatan, prevents any potential disruption to the circulation, resulting in a possibly stronger system, etc.

Bingo.  Plus it puts the coc East of where the models have this storm located at this juncture.   But I promise to keep silent until the recon data arrives. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

NHC still splitting the difference between the hurricane ensemble and the other models.  I still think they'll end up too far west in the end by maybe 50-70 miles

Agree.

[BooneWX]

If the coc gets a close shave with the Yucatán but doesn’t make landfall, we could also be looking at friction with the coast tightening up the primitive core.

[StantonParkHoya]

10 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Respectfully, every wobble right now could have major impacts downstream.

These wobbles are subjective and subject to verification. Eyeballing doesn’t mean it’s real or happening.

[TPAwx]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

NHC still splitting the difference between the hurricane ensemble and the other models.  I still think they'll end up too far west in the end by maybe 50-70 miles

For landfall position or also track up the Gulf?  Helene will push a lot of water as is, every degree East is impactful for surge up the FL West Coast.

[Hotair]

The satellite presentation suggests to me this is a large system.  I know eyeballing is not encouraged in this forum but has anyone here opined as to the relative size of Helene to other gulf storms in recent past?  

[wncsnow]

4 minutes ago, Hotair said:

The satellite presentation suggests to me this is a large system.  I know eyeballing is not encouraged in this forum but has anyone here opined as to the relative size of Helene to other gulf storms in recent past?  

According to the NHC, Helene is in the 90% for storm size. So it's big 

[KoalaBeer]

3 minutes ago, Hotair said:

The satellite presentation suggests to me this is a large system.  I know eyeballing is not encouraged in this forum but has anyone here opined as to the relative size of Helene to other gulf storms in recent past?  

Straight from the mouth of the NHC. Just read the 5 pm forecast discussion.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/242058.shtml

Of equal importance to the forecast intensity is Helene's forecast
size.  Helene's forecast radii are at the 90th percentile of
major hurricane size at similar latitudes, and therefore storm
surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well
away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on
the east side.

[Amped]

GFS has less Yucatan interaction this run hence, a stronger system. It's still spinning up satellite vortices like you get extra credit for it.

[Hotair]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

According to the NHC, Helene is in the 90% for storm size. So it's big 

Oh I missed that Thanks!  
 

here are potential flood impacts to Tampa area from storm surge. 
 

 

[jbenedet]

Now the guidance that had a TC genesis with a very weak start are rapidly losing betting odds. Right initially…not translating well at the moment…

995 mb, sure, but looks very healthy from a satellite presentation standpoint. 
 

I wouldn’t be sticking with the more conservative guidance right now. Balance has shifted slightly in favor of more aggressive now…
 

 

[Hotair]

[hawkeye_wx]

What's the deal with the GFS's depiction of Helene's vorticity, for the next two days, looking like a wobbly planet with a bunch of moons rotating around it?  The other models all show one solid ball of vorticity.

[BYG Jacob]

Pressure down to 993 mb on buoy 42056, and it didn’t get the center

[StantonParkHoya]

18z GFS landfall a little west of 12z

Pretty wild it goes from landfall to Atlanta in 6 hours

[Hotair]

3 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

Pressure down to 993 mb on buoy 42056, and it didn’t get the center

 

 

Weather 87

 

@TropicalWatcher

·

9s

 

A NOAA Buoy just recorded a pressure of 991.6 mb with #Helene , Depening quite quickly. 11m/s = 21 kts of wind -1 mb/10kts of win 993.9 - 2.1 = 991.8mb

[BYG Jacob]

Just now, Hotair said:

 

 

 

Weather 87

 

@TropicalWatcher

·

9s

 

A NOAA Buoy just recorded a pressure of 991.6 mb with #Helene , Depening quite quickly. 11m/s = 21 kts of wind -1 mb/10kts of win 993.9 - 2.1 = 991.8mb

992.8 now

[TPAwx]

4 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Interesting X handle but very relevant observation.  Recent downpour gave us 5” in 90 minutes.  Cars on Dale Mabry had water over the wheels.

[hawkeye_wx]

Ten minutes later, the buoy just dropped another full mb, to 992.9.  The ball of convection over the center is doing some good work.

[Radtechwxman]

Curious if dry air will impact Helene at all. Water vapor showing a channel of dry air in Gulf but if it gets organized tonight and really closes off may not matter. Would be more issue if areas remain open and it gets entrained into center. 

[StantonParkHoya]

Best hope is it does indeed traverse Yucatán to knock it down

[jbenedet]

9 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

992.8 now

18z GFS did not reach this min pressure until 6z-12z tomorrow.

 

[MANDA]

No doubt about it.  COC is low located under the deep convection.  Classic satellite presentation (time sensitive before sun sets) and outflow is getting better over the eastern semicircle, especially the NE quadrant.  Pressures are falling and I believe this is the start of Helene pulling it together.

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop180.html

[BYG Jacob]

991.8, and Helene is pulling away from the buoy

[Radtechwxman]

It's still a little asymmetrical and can tell western half is dealing with some shear still but the eastern half really starting to get some nice cyclonic curvature

[olafminesaw]

The HWRF has a good handle on it's deepening

[dbullsfan]

Question that I've wondered for a while but never asked (and not trying to get too sidetracked but this storm seems like a great example to bring it up with). 

 

Why is it with some of these storms, and with Helene being such a big storm are there huge breakups in the rain bands. As a novice onlooker I see the projected radar paths shown by local Mets and the national shows and for example where I am at about 25 miles inland near Tampa it looks like while we get some outer bands and some more as the center comes a little closer due west but a lot of breaks in between the bands so we really don't get much at all on the rain side.  whereas with other storms it seems much lusher (I can't think of a better word at the moment) and the rain is more consistent throughout the storm passing. Is this something with the off-shore radar or are there just big gaps in where the rain is outside of the core? 

 

Sorry for the newb question but always been curious and figured we aren't into storm mode just yet with this one. Thanks for the feedback