Major Hurricane Helene

[CoastalWx]

NHC cone also catches the NE Yucatán tip. What’s the issue here? I don’t see any wild forecasts from anybody. 

[Blue Ridge]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NHC cone also catches the NE Yucatán tip. What’s the issue here? I don’t see any wild forecasts from anybody. 

Other than one or two degens betting the house on TPA >CAT 4 +10000 - but those who have been around a minute know to tune them out.

[olafminesaw]

Cedar key seems to be in the cross hairs for surge. Was reading about the natural sea barrier that fared well during Idelia. But that was only a 6.8 ft surge

https://www.theinvadingsea.com/2023/12/01/cedar-key-hurricane-idalia-living-shoreline-storm-surge-erosion-florida-sea-grant/

[GaWx]

 I’m extra worried that the tornado threat from this in especially the NE sector is going to be high. Is that true? Any thoughts? I haven’t heard much about that yet.

[CoastalWx]

Seems like it will at least clip the Yucatan. 18z tropicals kind of show this. More interested in what happens in the 24 hrs after.

[LakeNormanStormin]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’m extra worried that the tornado threat from this in especially the NE sector is going to be high. Is that true? Any thoughts? I haven’t heard much about that yet.

Thought about that too being here in the NC Piedmont.

Wonder what effect the upper level low and stalled front will have on that.

[SnowGoose69]

18Z models all west, meanwhile globals and the 12z HMON/HAFS/HWRF Are more east of this

 

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

18Z models all west, meanwhile globals and the 12z HMON/HAFS/HWRF Are more east of this

 

I assume you realize it. But for those who might not realize it, these are not the 18Z global runs, themselves, as they obviously haven’t come out yet. These tracks are mainly based on 12Z runs.

[Floydbuster]

 

[beanskip]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I assume you realize it. But for those who might not realize it, these are not the 18Z global runs, themselves, as they obviously haven’t come out yet. These tracks are mainly based on 12Z runs.

I would actually love a primer on these spagheti plots -- I rarely see much correlation between them and actual individual model runs. What are they? 

[hawkeye_wx]

It appears a decent band of convection has begun to build just north and east of the surface center.  The center is currently drifting nnw.

[Amped]

Any wobble to the north during the next 12-18 hrs will have a large impact on how much time it spends over the Yucatan.

[Hotair]

I’m told this is the fourth Helene storm of this century.  
 

priors are 2006, 2012, 2018, and now in 2024.  So appears she likes to visit every six years.  Remind me in 2030 - lol  

[cptcatz]

2 minutes ago, Hotair said:

I’m told this is the fourth Helene storm of this century.  
 

priors are 2006, 2012, 2018, and now in 2024.  So appears she likes to visit every six years.  Remind me in 2030 - lol  

The name lists are rotated every 6 years. Every name this year also occurred in those years except for ones that replaced retired names. 

[beanskip]

Does DT's old "EE rule" apply to the tropics? (Second one is the Euro)

 

 

[Hotair]

4 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

The name lists are rotated every 6 years. Every name this year also occurred in those years except for ones that replaced retired names. 

Ah makes sense.  I didn’t know that was the cadence.  Thanks!

[CTWeatherFreak]

Just now, beanskip said:

Does DT's old "EE rule" apply to the tropics?

 

 

No, only his Weekend rule.

[CoastalWx]

Some of the outer bands are moving SW so it helps give the appearance that shear is lessening. However, looking at satellite and the deeper convection to the west, it does appear dry air and shear are lessening a bit. 

[NeffsvilleWx]

Flying back from BWI to MLB by way of ATL tomorrow evening -- Delta doesn't expect travel disruptions for these flights (but other destinations in FL have them).

Made sure to pick seats looking west to try to get a glimpse of Helene. At the very least, should be a decent lightning show.

[CoastalWx]

East side of this has a great outflow look.

[schoeppeya]

towers blowing up over the llc now

[BYG Jacob]

Pressure at roughly 996 on that buoy, and dual rotating towers are going up.

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

towers blowing up over the llc now

[Tatamy]

28 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

The name lists are rotated every 6 years. Every name this year also occurred in those years except for ones that replaced retired names. 

There was also a Hurricane Helene in 1958 that affected the Carolina coast.

[Amped]

Is there any model guidance that shows the forward speed at landfall. This one seems like it gets from 150 miles west of Tampa to almost the GA border in 6hrs. Maybe close to 30mph?

[Curious Onlooker]

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

There was also a Hurricane Helene in 1958 that affected the Carolina coast.

My parents still talked about that one when I was a kid in the 70's (although Hazel was the one that everybody on Carolina coast remembered).

[BooneWX]

47 minutes ago, Amped said:

Any wobble to the north during the next 12-18 hrs will have a large impact on how much time it spends over the Yucatan.

It looks like it’s moving due north quickly at the moment. Worth monitoring. 

[BYG Jacob]

Just now, BooneWX said:

It looks like it’s moving due north quickly at the moment. Worth monitoring. 

Getting tugged north by that blowup on the northern side of the nascent eye

[Hotair]

4 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

It looks like it’s moving due north quickly at the moment. Worth monitoring. 

I’m probably mistaken but to me it appears as if it is even nudging N/NE

[StantonParkHoya]

Can we stop with the wobble monitoring?