Major Hurricane Helene

[SnowGoose69]

HAFS-B smacks it well into the Yucatan lol

[Amped]

3 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

What a mess. Lol. LLC running away from convection. Shear definitely still impacting Helene. I'm beginning to think it may not get its act together until the Gulf. 

The band also still looking linear, and shows no sign of trying to bend or wrap around the center

[beanskip]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

HAFS-B smacks it well into the Yucatan lol

Yeah, the HAFS-A has it spending 12 HOURS over the Yucatan!

[hawkeye_wx]

The HAFS models are both now much weaker over the eastern gulf, likely mostly due to Helene being de-cored over the Yucatan.  A few hours over land is not a big deal, but twelve certainly is.

[beanskip]

14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

HAFS-B smacks it well into the Yucatan lol

That time spent over Yucatan led to a 43 mb increase in pressure effective 15z Thursday vs. the prior run. 

[beanskip]

4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The HAFS models are both now much weaker over the eastern gulf, likely mostly due to Helene being de-cored over the Yucatan.

HMON super close to the same thing, but stays just offshore. 

[SnowGoose69]

The HAFS B comes in near the NHC track but its very weak, HMON appears it'll come in east of NHC track but way stronger

[Amped]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The HAFS B comes in near the NHC track but its very weak, HMON appears it'll come in east of NHC track but way stronger

Global models have been in the 960s through 980s with the landfall pressure.. HAFS-B is pretty much in line with that this run.

[beanskip]

16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The HAFS B comes in near the NHC track but its very weak, HMON appears it'll come in east of NHC track but way stronger

HAFS-B makes a late run at Cat 3 strength. Also a nightmare run for Tallahassee.

[GaWx]

12Z Euro is stronger at landfall than recent runs with 976 Thu evening Apalachee Bay. It gets to ATL just 8 hours later and weakens only to 981, which would be flirting with all-time record low SLP there.

[SnowGoose69]

Euro is pretty much NHC track, it seems to NOT get as close to the Yucatan as the 06Z Euro did

[beanskip]

Euro coming in stronger. Cat 2 (975 mb) at landfall. 

[Roger Smith]

I am expecting an over-performer (RI) and possibly cat-4 by 26-27 N (landfall 29N cat-3). East-west wobble factor (0.2-0.3 deg) is likely to play as max east displacements midnite, and max west mid-day, given moon's present orbital position. Strong n max declination peak at present will decrease over 3 days, it does add tidal range to coming period between F and new. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Roger Smith said:

I am expecting an over-performer (RI) and possibly cat-4 by 26-27 N (landfall 29N cat-3). East-west wobble factor (0.2-0.3 deg) is likely to play as max east displacements midnite, and max west mid-day, given moon's present orbital position. Strong n max declination peak at present will decrease over 3 days, it does add tidal range to coming period between F and new. 

Ah good 'ole Rog'...always playing it close to the vest-

[Floydbuster]

Helene is building, but I guess I'm honestly not impressed yet. I want to see a definitive, well formed low level center and get a handle on any possible Yucatan interaction. It doesn't have as much time as others to organize, so the longer it takes, the better for Florida.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Helene is building, but I guess I'm honestly not impressed yet. I want to see a definitive, well formed low level center and get a handle on any possible Yucatan interaction. It doesn't have as much time as others to organize, so the longer it takes, the better for Florida.

Given the sheer size...surge will be lethal, but max winds may not ramp up as quickly as some pine for.

[AccuChris]

This is mesmerizing to watch in hi-def visible imagery


.

[hawkeye_wx]

Helene currently has an interesting presentation.  It has a well-defined center.  There is convection up-shear and down-shear, but nothing near the center.

[Radtechwxman]

3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Helene currently has an interesting presentation.  It has a well-defined center.  There is convection up-shear, down-shear, and everywhere else, except near the center.

Basically nothing that will help it strengthen in the near term. Until convection pops over the center Helene going to be steady state or possibly weaken with exposed center. 

[BooneWX]

It appears in the most recent 3-4 frames, the coc has started a nnw motion. Whether that’s a wobble or an actual trend is too early to tell.

[Justin]

Outflow or arc clouds could be undercutting the center and causing wobbles to the S or SW too. 

[dan11295]

Significant interaction with the Yucatan is definitely possible here. Obviously that would result in a weaker system in the gulf. Just clipping the tip will have minimal impact, 6+ hours over land is another matter.

[wkd]

I love all of the input from hobbyist and non-tropical Mets, but my bet is with the forecasts provided by the mets in the NHC.  In the end they are usually not far off. 

[GaWx]

 12Z Euro ensemble: stronger mean than recent runs; many members are still ~980 mb in Atlanta vicinity, which doesn’t bode well for N GA; flooding rain and wind could both be major issues there; watch out Atlanta, Athens, and surrounding areas. This could rival Opal’s effects there. Combo of strong storm, very fast mover, upper level environment, and large size would be the reasons for this very rare event should it materialize.

[wxeyeNH]

LLC is not moving SW anymore.  Bascially stalled and just starting to move NNW.  Thunderstorms are popping up closer and closer to it.  I think the real intensification starts very soon once the storms fire right over the LLC.  Once they do the low clouds get covered up so we will have to rely on aircraft verses visually as to direction.

[beanskip]

Mandatory evacuation order by county commissioners for all Wakulla County residents. 

https://www.mywakulla.com/news_detail_T29_R2510.php

[Hotair]

10 minutes ago, wkd said:

I love all of the input from hobbyist and non-tropical Mets, but my bet is with the forecasts provided by the mets in the NHC.  In the end they are usually not far off. 

They are among the best on the world.  I have to say though there are many amateur Mets here who frequently catch things that are either missing from the published NHC statements or help to better explain the forecast rationale issued  by the NHC.  Also NHC is great but not always perfect, so it’s always healthy to have a diverse set of eyes and opinions on the data as it evolves. 

[cptcatz]

Impressive amount of convection popping now off the Yucatan coast. Seems the sheer is gone. Should wrap up now. 

[schoeppeya]

Definitely some southerly shear still but should be a more favorable vector and starting to see some storms wrap around the northern side of the storm. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

First Call....last look on Thursday.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/09/tropical-storm-helene-poised-inundate.html