GaWx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 12Z Euro ensemble: stronger mean than recent runs; many members are still ~980 mb in Atlanta vicinity, which doesn’t bode well for N GA; flooding rain and wind could both be major issues there; watch out Atlanta, Athens, and surrounding areas. This could rival Opal’s effects there. Combo of strong storm, very fast mover, upper level environment, and large size would be the reasons for this very rare event should it materialize. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 LLC is not moving SW anymore. Bascially stalled and just starting to move NNW. Thunderstorms are popping up closer and closer to it. I think the real intensification starts very soon once the storms fire right over the LLC. Once they do the low clouds get covered up so we will have to rely on aircraft verses visually as to direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Mandatory evacuation order by county commissioners for all Wakulla County residents. https://www.mywakulla.com/news_detail_T29_R2510.php 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 10 minutes ago, wkd said: I love all of the input from hobbyist and non-tropical Mets, but my bet is with the forecasts provided by the mets in the NHC. In the end they are usually not far off. They are among the best on the world. I have to say though there are many amateur Mets here who frequently catch things that are either missing from the published NHC statements or help to better explain the forecast rationale issued by the NHC. Also NHC is great but not always perfect, so it’s always healthy to have a diverse set of eyes and opinions on the data as it evolves. 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Impressive amount of convection popping now off the Yucatan coast. Seems the sheer is gone. Should wrap up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Definitely some southerly shear still but should be a more favorable vector and starting to see some storms wrap around the northern side of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 First Call....last look on Thursday. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/09/tropical-storm-helene-poised-inundate.html 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 NHC cone also catches the NE Yucatán tip. What’s the issue here? I don’t see any wild forecasts from anybody. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NHC cone also catches the NE Yucatán tip. What’s the issue here? I don’t see any wild forecasts from anybody. Other than one or two degens betting the house on TPA >CAT 4 +10000 - but those who have been around a minute know to tune them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Cedar key seems to be in the cross hairs for surge. Was reading about the natural sea barrier that fared well during Idelia. But that was only a 6.8 ft surge https://www.theinvadingsea.com/2023/12/01/cedar-key-hurricane-idalia-living-shoreline-storm-surge-erosion-florida-sea-grant/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 I’m extra worried that the tornado threat from this in especially the NE sector is going to be high. Is that true? Any thoughts? I haven’t heard much about that yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Seems like it will at least clip the Yucatan. 18z tropicals kind of show this. More interested in what happens in the 24 hrs after. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 5 minutes ago, GaWx said: I’m extra worried that the tornado threat from this in especially the NE sector is going to be high. Is that true? Any thoughts? I haven’t heard much about that yet. Thought about that too being here in the NC Piedmont. Wonder what effect the upper level low and stalled front will have on that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 18Z models all west, meanwhile globals and the 12z HMON/HAFS/HWRF Are more east of this 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 18Z models all west, meanwhile globals and the 12z HMON/HAFS/HWRF Are more east of this I assume you realize it. But for those who might not realize it, these are not the 18Z global runs, themselves, as they obviously haven’t come out yet. These tracks are mainly based on 12Z runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 10 minutes ago, GaWx said: I assume you realize it. But for those who might not realize it, these are not the 18Z global runs, themselves, as they obviously haven’t come out yet. These tracks are mainly based on 12Z runs. I would actually love a primer on these spagheti plots -- I rarely see much correlation between them and actual individual model runs. What are they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 It appears a decent band of convection has begun to build just north and east of the surface center. The center is currently drifting nnw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Any wobble to the north during the next 12-18 hrs will have a large impact on how much time it spends over the Yucatan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 I’m told this is the fourth Helene storm of this century. priors are 2006, 2012, 2018, and now in 2024. So appears she likes to visit every six years. Remind me in 2030 - lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 2 minutes ago, Hotair said: I’m told this is the fourth Helene storm of this century. priors are 2006, 2012, 2018, and now in 2024. So appears she likes to visit every six years. Remind me in 2030 - lol The name lists are rotated every 6 years. Every name this year also occurred in those years except for ones that replaced retired names. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Does DT's old "EE rule" apply to the tropics? (Second one is the Euro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 4 minutes ago, cptcatz said: The name lists are rotated every 6 years. Every name this year also occurred in those years except for ones that replaced retired names. Ah makes sense. I didn’t know that was the cadence. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Just now, beanskip said: Does DT's old "EE rule" apply to the tropics? No, only his Weekend rule. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Some of the outer bands are moving SW so it helps give the appearance that shear is lessening. However, looking at satellite and the deeper convection to the west, it does appear dry air and shear are lessening a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Flying back from BWI to MLB by way of ATL tomorrow evening -- Delta doesn't expect travel disruptions for these flights (but other destinations in FL have them). Made sure to pick seats looking west to try to get a glimpse of Helene. At the very least, should be a decent lightning show. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 East side of this has a great outflow look. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 towers blowing up over the llc now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Pressure at roughly 996 on that buoy, and dual rotating towers are going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 3 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: towers blowing up over the llc now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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