Major Hurricane Helene

[Griizzcoat]

Helene is nothing like Hugo as as far as 64kt wind radii at or near landfall

Hugo was 140 mile  64kt wind radii at or near landfall-- and scored a whopping 19.3 on the CMEHI index  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_Mercantile_Exchange_Hurricane_Index)

Looks like Helene had about 50 mile 64kt wind radii at or near landfall --

 
HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092024
0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N  83.9W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT  21 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  938 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

 

Not trying to minimize the impacts and we really have not seen the results of the surge and flooding- but according to the CMEHI index- Helene will score about 11 to 11.5 with a landfall wind speed of 140 and 64 kt wind radii at 50 miles. 

 

[Normandy]

Indeed Hugo was another inland monster.  Great analog to this one 

[SnowGoose69]

42 minutes ago, metalicwx367 said:

75KT wind gust just recorded near my hometown (KAMG). Power pretty much out to entire town. My mom said roof on next door neighbor's house just got blown off and stuff is flying everywhere. They are terrified right now. Might not seem bad to others but Southeast Georgia is getting wrecked. They weren't under a hurricane warning either.

87kts now.  I was not sure those were correct until I saw this post as they seemed too high 

[metalicwx367]

25 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Extremely impressive so far inland

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KAMG

 

Gusting to 100MPH now. Jesus Christ. Family back home saying it's insane right now.

[Griizzcoat]

1 minute ago, metalicwx367 said:

Gusting to 100MPH now. Jesus Christ. Family back home saying it's insane right now.

Impressive-

[MANDA]

https://x.com/i/status/1839548321347551518

[Normandy]

There are some extremely strong winds on the east side off this system 

[SnowGoose69]

Unfortunately this area will make its way into Augusta.  I think it might weaken somewhat by then but might still see 70-80mph 

[GaWx]

After the earlier very high gusts 2 hrs ago that took my power, there had not been a repeat of wind gusts nearly that high until ~3AM, when they returned.

 Power now is out to over 100K customers in the GA portion of the metro area, easily the worst since Matthew.

[NotSureWeather]

Might be cause it’s almost 4AM but is it turning NE?

[buckeyefan1]

35 minutes ago, metalicwx367 said:

Gusting to 100MPH now. Jesus Christ. Family back home saying it's insane right now.

Did you forget your old log in? You need another red tag sir and it's nice to see you drop in. I'm getting the same texts from friends there as I wait for it to arrive here  

[GaWx]

From NHC at 4AM:
A University of Georgia weather station in Vidalia, Georgia 
recently reported a wind gust of 77 mph (124 km/h). An ASOS station 
at The Savannah International Airport in Georgia recently reported 
a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) with a gust to 76 mph      
(122 km/h).

[NorthHillsWx]

That SE quadrant is benefiting from the 30 mph forward motion to keep these strong gusts going. I expect this to continue into the upstate and mountains. Augusta is about to get rocked, fully expect hurricane force gusts there

[NorthHillsWx]

And it does appear to continue wanting to deviate east of track. Could increase wind threat for Charlotte and Greenville down the line if that continues 

[lilj4425]

So much for a northwest turn. This thing is headed right for Greenville-Spartanburg.

[NorthHillsWx]

Still lightning ongoing in remnant eyewall. That tells me this thing is getting some upper level assistance and also that unusually deep convection for being this far inland will be efficient at mixing winds to the surface. Velocities over 90 kts showing on radar emphasize the wind potential this system continues to have. By all accounts, this is going to be one of the most prolific wind storms in the history of Georgia and possibly the upstate and mountains. I can see gusts of 70+ kts continuing into the mountains 

[Thrasher Fan]

Nothing more than a high end rain event for the ATL metro. Forecast was way off with the storm never turning N much less NW.

[NorthHillsWx]

Augusta just recorded a 58kt gust 

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...HELENE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND
OVER GEORGIA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 83.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF MACON GEORGIA
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SE OF ATLANTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Hurricane and Tropical Storm warnings have been discontinued
along the Florida east coast south of the Flagler/Volusia county
line, and along the Florida west coast south of the mouth of the
Suwannee River.

The Hurricane Warning for the Florida coast from the mouth of the
Suwannee Rover to Mexico Beach has been changed to a Tropical Storm
Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Florida
Gulf coast west of Indian Pass.

The Storm Surge Warning for the Florida coast has been discontinued
west of Indian Pass and south of Bonita Beach.

The Hurricane Watch for the Florida West coast has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Bonita Beach
* Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The mouth of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass
* The Flagler/Volusia county line northward to Little River Inlet

 

[yoda]

No more hourly updates 

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

The eye of Helene made landfall near Perry, Florida, just after the 
last advisory was issued. Since then, the center has crossed the 
Florida Big Bend region and is currently located over east central 
Georgia.  Surface observations have shown steady weakening since 
landfall, and the maximum winds have decreased to a possibly 
generous 60 kt.  During the last couple of hours, the radar 
signature of the cyclone has degraded, and based on this the hourly 
Tropical Cyclone Updates will be discontinued.

The initial motion is now northward or 360/26.  Helen should turn 
northwestward later today as it starts to interact with a mid- to 
upper-level baroclinic low to its northwest.  After that, the 
cyclone should considerably slow its forward motion and make a 
cyclonic loop as it gets absorbed into the low.  The new forecast 
track follows the general trend of the large-scale dynamical models.

Helene should continue to weaken, and simulated satellite imagery 
suggests it should lose its convection later today, the new 
intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to weaken and become 
post-tropical in about 12 h, followed by transition to an 
extratropical cyclone as it merges with the baroclinic low.  The 
remnant extratropical low is expected to dissipate by 72 h.

Although the system will weaken as it moves over land, the fast
forward speed of Helene during the next 12 hours or so will result
in a far inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States, particularly over northern Georgia, 
including strong gusts over the higher terrain of the southern 
Appalachians. Accordingly, a higher-than-normal gust factor is 
indicated in the official forecast while Helene is inland.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The storm surge along portions of the Florida Big Bend coast and 
other portions of the west coast of Florida should subside today.

2. Damaging wind gusts will continue to penetrate well inland over 
portions of Georgia and the Carolinas today, particularly over the 
higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. Residents in these 
areas should be prepared for the possibility of long-duration power
outages.  If you use a generator after the storm, be sure it is
placed outside at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, and
garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning.

3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, 
including numerous significant landslides, is expected across 
portions of the southern Appalachians through Friday. Considerable 
to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding is likely for 
northwestern and northern Florida and the Southeast through Friday. 
Widespread significant river flooding is likely, some of which will 
be major to record breaking.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 32.8N  83.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 12H  27/1800Z 36.4N  84.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  28/0600Z 36.9N  87.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  28/1800Z 36.7N  87.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  29/0600Z 36.7N  87.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  29/1800Z 36.9N  86.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Augusta now sustained at 40 kts gusting to 64 kts 

[dan11295]

23 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Augusta now sustained at 40 kts gusting to 64 kts 

That still intense convection is going right over them. Looking at the power outage maps the entire SE half of GA has major outages now. 2.5M+ customers without power in the southeast as a whole now.

[NorthHillsWx]

Augusta is currently sustained 51 gusting to 73. That is one of the more impressive sustained inland wind readings I’ve ever seen from a non elevated site thus far from a tropical systems landfall. There is no doubt devastating tree damage occurring. The core of the hurricane force gusts looks aimed for Greenville to me

[CoastalWx]

71Kts Augusta

[NorthHillsWx]

https://x.com/nwscolumbia/status/1839601665202409626?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

[NorthHillsWx]

82 mph gust in Augusta. Station went down immediately after. Unbelievable 

EDIT: back online and still gusting over hurricane force. That city is going to be unrecognizable in daylight. Lots of pine trees

[osfan24]

6 hours ago, eduggs said:

We go through this every time with landfalling hurricanes... Where's my 140 mph winds!!?? Due to friction with the ground surface, surface wind speeds are significantly lower over land than over water. So unless someone is literally right on a wind-exposed beach, which is not advisable in a surge scenario, it is very unlikely to record a peak wind speed anywhere close to what would be observed on the open ocean.

I always wonder if there is a better way to communicate this to the public in terms of what category or wind speed they say a certain tropical system is as it comes ashore.

[dan11295]

Lets not forget western NC also, flooding situation there is about to get very bad. Already multiple Flash Flood Emergencies with heaviest rainfall about to start there.

[eyewall]

I am in Atlanta for work and it is a big nothing here being on the weak side with the track sliding east. It is a rain event here with hardly any wind.

[lilj4425]

Getting really bad here in Greenville. Power outages everywhere now.