Major Hurricane Helene

[lee59]

Perry in the eye. They had sustained of 55 and gust to 99

[eduggs]

17 minutes ago, ScottB said:

I'll second not looking anything like 120/130 mph winds anywhere out of Perry. Watched several streams and looked relatively tame compared to what I was expecting. 

Perry is way inland. Little chance of major hurricane sustained winds there.

[Chinook]

55mph gusting 99mph

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Perry is way inland. Little chance of major hurricane sustained winds there.

Airport is south of town. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

We go through this every time with landfalling hurricanes... Where's my 140 mph winds!!?? Due to friction with the ground surface, surface wind speeds are significantly lower over land than over water. So unless someone is literally right on a wind-exposed beach, which is not advisable in a surge scenario, it is very unlikely to record a peak wind speed anywhere close to what would be observed on the open ocean.

Yea, but I bet they will find some absolutely vicious, tornado like tree damage down where only the alligators reside.

[Radtechwxman]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

We go through this every time with landfalling hurricanes... Where's my 140 mph winds!!?? Due to friction with the ground surface, surface wind speeds are significantly lower over land than over water. So unless someone is literally right on a wind-exposed beach, which is not advisable in a surge scenario, it is very unlikely to record a peak wind speed anywhere close to what would be observed on the open ocean.

Not what we're saying at all. Not expecting 140mph winds at all. But one would expect sustained winds near or over 100mph with some gusts of 120+. Perry gusted to 99mph. I would have thought sustained winds would be closer to that. Just seems underwhelming. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, NeonPeon said:

Just as with the radar attenuation claims, I also can't remember a storm where people were satisfied with wind verification.

This thing plowed into about the perfect place it could have in terms of population density. The real damage becomes evident later on, a slowly unfolding, less glamorous disaster, inland. Lots and lots of rain.

The main story people talk about years later from this might be all the inland flood damage. The wind damage stories likely come from places like Valdosta and any other more major city inland. It's definitely very fortunate this is the best place in FL this could have come ashore. Doesn't do any good for Steinhatchee or other small towns directly in the worst surge, and places further south into Tampa Bay will also probably get some bad water damage. But yeah, a track 100 miles further SE would've been catastrophic. 

[CoastalWx]

Probably towards Salem will you find 100+. They got raked.

[eduggs]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Airport is south of town. 

So 15 miles or so inland? Even a quarter mile inland significantly reduces surface wind speed.

[StantonParkHoya]

2 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Not what we're saying at all. Not expecting 140mph winds at all. But one would expect sustained winds near or over 100mph with some gusts of 120+. Perry gusted to 99mph. I would have thought sustained winds would be closer to that. Just seems underwhelming. 

You seem like you’re not from the coast or hurricane-prone areas

Im most interested in following how quickly this weakens. Outside of a very few storms, I’ve never seen a TC not significantly weaken immediately upon landfall in 40 years of tracking/living through storms.

[NeonPeon]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

The main story people talk about years later from this might be all the inland flood damage.

If it had hit tampa, this would have been a katrina type situation.

The story with every hurricane is the same though, surge, rain, whatever form it takes, it's always water. Wind is an inconvenience but since it's used to keep score...

[CoastalWx]

Flooding is going to be an unmitigated disaster for the GSP WFO hill country into NC. 

[eduggs]

8 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Not what we're saying at all. Not expecting 140mph winds at all. But one would expect sustained winds near or over 100mph with some gusts of 120+. Perry gusted to 99mph. I would have thought sustained winds would be closer to that. Just seems underwhelming. 

140 mph is the maximum sustained winds in a tiny localized region over the open ocean. If you move in any direction away from the maximum winds, they will decrease quickly. Then on top of that, the effect of land is much stronger than people realize. That's why extreme wind damage from hurricanes is usually very localized. The surge is typically far more dangerous and widespread. 100 mph gusts more than a few miles inland is uncommon in any hurricane - even a major hurricane.

[Radtechwxman]

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

You seem like you’re not from the coast or hurricane-prone areas

Im most interested in following how quickly this weakens. Outside of a very few storms, I’ve never seen a TC not significantly weaken immediately upon landfall in 40 years of tracking/living through storms.

I'm not but doesn't mean I'm not educated on hurricanes. I understand land friction and you don't see same winds as over water. But also typically with a cat 4 you will see higher sustained winds and much higher gusts. But also I don't think there's a lot of recording stations capturing that so could be missed. I just found it interesting pressure was dropping till LF but we did see clouds warm on satellite esp in NE quadrant and wonder if something meteorologically was going on. Not properly mixing down winds, something like that. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Flooding is going to be an unmitigated disaster for the GSP WFO hill country into NC. 

Georgia, S Carolina, Tennessee border area has been getting drowned.

[lilj4425]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Flooding is going to be an unmitigated disaster for the GSP WFO hill country into NC. 

People seem more concerned with Tampa for some odd reason. NE Georgia, Upstate SC and Western NC is where the real concern should be.

[Nibor]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Flooding is going to be an unmitigated disaster for the GSP WFO hill country into NC. 

I said earlier this has the potential to be what Irene was for the White Mountains of NH.

[lee59]

Winds gusting to and over 50mph on Floridas east coast

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

People seem more concerned with Tampa for some odd reason. NE Georgia, Upstate SC and Western NC is where the real concern should be.

Everyone gushes over Tampa threats and they haven’t been hit by a hurricane since Washington rowed across the Delaware

[eduggs]

5 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

I'm not but doesn't mean I'm not educated on hurricanes. I understand land friction and you don't see same winds as over water. But also typically with a cat 4 you will see higher sustained winds and much higher gusts. But also I don't think there's a lot of recording stations capturing that so could be missed. I just found it interesting pressure was dropping till LF but we did see clouds warm on satellite esp in NE quadrant and wonder if something meteorologically was going on. Not properly mixing down winds, something like that. 

It's likely winds would have been a little stronger had the NE eyewall been stronger, which would have been magnified by the storm's forward motion. But I suspect you're right that the lack of reports from the immediate coastal area explains the lack of extremely high wind measurements. I bet 100-120 gusts were widespread within a mile or so of the Ocean.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, Radtechwxman said:

I'm not but doesn't mean I'm not educated on hurricanes. I understand land friction and you don't see same winds as over water. But also typically with a cat 4 you will see higher sustained winds and much higher gusts. But also I don't think there's a lot of recording stations capturing that so could be missed. I just found it interesting pressure was dropping till LF but we did see clouds warm on satellite esp in NE quadrant and wonder if something meteorologically was going on. Not properly mixing down winds, something like that. 

You consistently answer your own questions. The reason for the underwhelming appearance is the lack of recording stations and the fact chasers were not positioned to receive max winds. The area of max winds bypassed chaser positions. This is more in relation to that chasers were positioned for safety, NOT to be in the max winds. Max winds were on east side of eye where max storm surge is occurring. The combination of the two is an unsurvivable situation. But this is a common theme we see, year after year, going back to Harvey in 2017 with people saying these major canes look underwhelming. 

[TPAwx]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The main story people talk about years later from this might be all the inland flood damage. The wind damage stories likely come from places like Valdosta and any other more major city inland. It's definitely very fortunate this is the best place in FL this could have come ashore. Doesn't do any good for Steinhatchee or other small towns directly in the worst surge, and places further south into Tampa Bay will also probably get some bad water damage. But yeah, a track 100 miles further SE would've been catastrophic. 

The flooding across a huge swath of Florida will be a big part of the story.  We understood the surge forecast but it’s unprecedented in many areas.  Just in from a survey of the hood in South Tampa, we flood easy but it was jaw dropping.  And two hours until high tide with continued onshore flow. Heading out again after a band passes thru.

[jm1220]

Just now, lee59 said:

Winds gusting to and over 50mph on Floridas east coast

St Pete Airport had a gust to 82 earlier in a band. This will be a bad/nasty one for them but thankfully they dodged the bullet again by 100-150 miles.

[skillsweather]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

140 mph is the maximum sustained winds in a tiny localized region over the open ocean. If you move in any direction away from the maximum winds, they will decrease quickly. Then on top of that, the effect of land is much stronger than people realize. That's why extreme wind damage from hurricanes is usually very localized. The surge is typically far more dangerous and widespread. 100 mph gusts more than a few miles inland is uncommon in any hurricane - even a major hurricane.

To be fair Reed Timmer was claiming 100mph sustained winds and gust 200mph with tons of downed radio/cell towers and flying small cars in his stream. Which he either knows what hes talking about and was falsifying the storm for views or he doesn't know what hes talking about. Supposedly hes a well known storm chaser and a meteorologist.

[Floydbuster]

 

[Radtechwxman]

3 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

You consistently answer your own questions. The reason for the underwhelming appearance is the lack of recording stations and the fact chasers were not positioned to receive max winds. The area of max winds bypassed chaser positions. This is more in relation to that chasers were positioned for safety, NOT to be in the max winds. Max winds were on east side of eye where max storm surge is occurring. The combination of the two is an unsurvivable situation. But this is a common theme we see, year after year, going back to Harvey in 2017 with people saying these major canes look underwhelming. 

Yeah I have a habit of doing that. Ha. But thanks for the input

[Met1985]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Flooding is going to be an unmitigated disaster for the GSP WFO hill country into NC. 

No shit. We've got people who already have over 15 inches and counting.  They say the French Broad river in Buncombe county is supposed to crest at 30 feet tomorrow.  That's 10 feet above the current record... And let's not talk about the winds coming through...

[andyhb]

5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Everyone gushes over Tampa threats and they haven’t been hit by a hurricane since Washington rowed across the Delaware

To be fair, the Tampa/St. Petersburg area is flooding badly right now. This is going to be a very costly storm for that area, even though it didn't hit them directly.

[eduggs]

6 minutes ago, skillsweather said:

To be fair Reed Timmer was claiming 100mph sustained winds and gust 200mph with tons of downed radio/cell towers and flying small cars in his stream. Which he either knows what hes talking about and was falsifying the storm for views or he doesn't know what hes talking about. Supposedly hes a well known storm chaser and a meteorologist.

Timmer tends to combine both.  200 mph gusts and flying small cars, huh? Impressive.

[skillsweather]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Timmer tends to combine both.  200 mph gusts and flying small cars, huh? Impressive.

Yeah I have no idea I was confused by his statements but figured he knew more then me so went with it and watched whole stream (he wins I guess lol).